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Penn Wharton Budget Model

@budgetmodel.bsky.social

Penn Wharton Budget Model provides nonpartisan, research-based estimates and analysis on the fiscal impact of public policy.

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Read the full report here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-04-15...

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

We estimate an effective tariff rate (ETR) of 8.9 percent through February 2026, based on the latest trade and tariff data. We project that replacing the IEEPA with a new 10% global tariff rate lowers the ETR to 8.1 percent in the near-term.

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-04-08...

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

The administration is considering a substantial increase in the prevailing wage thresholds for H-1B workers. The proposal would raise average pay of selected H-1Bs by $20,611 (+18.4%) over the prior random lottery, nearly doubling the compensation impact of the new wage-weighted lottery.

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-09...

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

We project that Social Security's OASI Trust Fund will deplete in 2032. We consider five reform options that vary in the amount of tax increases and benefit cuts and show how traditional analysis yields very different — even opposite — implications from more comprehensive modeling.

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Read the full report here: t.co/NpBnEvVbtn

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

We estimate an effective tariff rate of 10.3 percent through January 2026. We project that replacing the IEEPA tariffs with a new 10% global tariff rate lowers the ETR to 7.7 percent on a bias-corrected basis.

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Two recent Senate proposals — Senator Booker's KYPA and Senator Van Hollen's WATCA — widen the zero tax bracket with two different approaches, illustrating how mechanism determines cost, targeting, and distortions. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-16...

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Senator Van Hollen's Working Americans' Tax Cut Act pairs a new alternative maximum tax for low- and middle-income filers with a graduated millionaire surtax, increasing federal revenue by $264 billion over a decade. t.co/3t57h6xtsl

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

We estimate that the Keep Your Pay Act proposed by Senator Cory Booker reduces federal revenues by up to $6.4 trillion over a decade. Households earning $100,000–$200,000 receive the largest tax cuts. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-11...

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Penn Wharton Budget Model @budgetmodel.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

We analyze how employers could exploit DHS' new H-1B lottery rules by reclassifying positions into closely related occupations with lower prevailing wages to increase their chance of selection. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-04...

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