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Holy fascist propaganda, batman!

Lis Power @lispower.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Reposted by Brayden

Fox News is honing in on the enemy ... and it's ... Ms. Rachel?

Graphic showing "Ms. Rachel's controversial stances"

which includes supporting Dem candidates, supporting Palestine, opposing ICE, and stating no one needs a billion dollars.

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The sim is an analysis of 2024 voters who took the Common Election Survey. Voters are split on 4 ideological factors: law and order, populist Conservatism, institutional distrust, and religious ideology.

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Furthermore, you don't get a 10% hard right bloc taking control of a 50% FPTP party like we've seen with the GOP because they have an alternative option in something like a Nationalist Party. Essentially, you prevent minority ideological capture by offering extremes a better option.

A bar chart showing the left-right ideological placement of 10 CES voter clusters that could represent parties in a proportional system.

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On multiparty.com, I show how proportional systems bring that number way down. Under a Party List system, down to maybe a fifth, and under STV, it's essentially eliminated due to transfers. A system where your vote matters is surely more healthy for democracy than one where your vote doesn't.

multiparty.com

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As a floor, 36ish percent of voters are left unrepresented in the house - that is nobody they voted for won a seat. This doesn't count those who just don't vote because "their votes don't matter". This is the worst in gerrymandered or small homogenous states.

multiparty.com

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In a FPTP Westminster system? You could make the argument that Democrats making a strategic retreat in places like Idaho and the Dakotas and supporting regional parties would be worthwhile, but those could just be seen as Dem satellites The better argument is for proportional representation:

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Reposted by Brayden

this really is impeachable for any president, but really grotesque coming from a regime that cut life-saving development aid because they said it was not efficient

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Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Or: original stories that aren't already available in book form. I feel like everything Thrawn benefits from a post-Disney nostalgia filter, but the books are really only okay. Joruus C'baoth and Luuke are inherently silly concepts. And the weird force-repelling creatures.

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Reposted by Brayden

Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The man ICE shot in Austin today is named Wilber Rafael Garces Perez. Per his lawyer, she and Perez’s family were run off of hospital property where he’s being treated and won’t even confirm he’s there because he’s “in ICE custody.” Actual criminals.

npr.org

Federal immigration agent shoots and injures man in Austin, Texas

The person shot is in serious but stable condition, Austin Mayor Kirk Watson said in a press conference.

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Reposted by Brayden

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

One side of this war has an elected legislature but it doesn't really have any power compared to the supreme leader and the council of guardian jurists, and the other is Iran.

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Reposted by Brayden

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Maybe we should try electing some kind of larger body of people who can decide law and policy instead of vesting near-absolute power in one man, checked only at the extreme outer margins by his own party's judicial appointees.

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Reposted by Brayden

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

This is dumb even on its own terms because it's falling for the idea "MAHA" is a real thing with its own voter base. It's not. Some grifters pretend it's a distinct mass movement but it's simply not. RFK was on track for <2%. It's not a coherent bloc, it's just part of the general swirl of Trumpism.

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Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

You are definitely using things developed with AI every day. BlueSky software engineers are definitely using AI. It's ubiquitous among developers at this point. It's not something you can avoid without abandoning software use entirely.

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Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

God wanted Corey Compotore to die apparently

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Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

He also said that God saved Trump from the assassination attempt so he just had to support him in 2024. That's when I realized the dude was either much dumber than I thought or much more of an opportunist.

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What I don’t model, and I’m definitely open to suggestions on how I could do this, is non-party civic institutions pushing for a certain candidate ranking independent of party ID, non-ideological voter behavior (beyond turnout and ballot compliance), and varying party cohesion and discipline.

I also assume full compliance with ballot instructions which seems to be born out by the Australian ranking data. I try to model sensible party behavior by only having parties assign multiple candidates where it may make sense to do so with 1-3 candidates fielded based on population strength.

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The DPGMM clustering gives every voter a posterior probability to belong to each of the ten ideological clusters. I assume slate voting for the highest probability assignment and subsequent slate voting in order of their other-party probability assignments.

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A few things on ranking based on the restraints of the data and model: I’m assuming strong party discipline, that voters respond honestly to their ideological preferences, and that ballots have explicit instructions to rank a number of candidates (I have scenarios for rank 3, 5, 7, 10, and full).

Those extreme parties are also not competitive in single seat sims (Senate, Presidency) where I modeled Condorcet + IRV outcomes. Parties w/ factor space positions closest to the median of the current two parties dominate w/ a spike in a socially moderate, econ progressive center under Condorcet.

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I have the hard right (Nationalists) getting around 10% of House seats and the left (Progressives and DSA) getting a little under 10%. Parties were clustered on their position in four factor space (Populist Conservatism, Security and Order, Institutional Distrust, and Religious Traditionalism)

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On the non-violent solution, I was thinking the same thing and built a multiparty model clustering CES respondents into different "parties" to see how seats would allocate in an STV vs Party List system. I wanted to paint a picture of how imbalanced the current system is. usmultiparty.com

usmultiparty.com

An interactive simulation of US elections under proportional representation, built from 45,707 CES 2024 survey responses.

Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Shor and Yglesias have wreaked havoc on the pundit class with their popularist immigration nonsense. Yglesias's heel turn from One Billion Americans is something else.

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Reposted by Brayden

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 31/07/2026

To be making the argument in 2026 that immigration is a Republican leaning issue so Democrats shouldn’t campaign on it, and especially Trump’s overreach on deportations, is to be completely ignorant of the data and events of the last 18 months

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Reposted by Brayden

Molly White @molly.wiki · 27/07/2026

Click any node or connection in the Trump crypto empire map to open its panel and view explanatory annotations and citations. Toggle the income overlay to see financial-disclosure figures from the most recent filings. Search for entities, or filter by category. map.citationneeded.news

A screenshot of the map, with a side panel open showing Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust. Side panel contents: Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust Intermediary Entity When Walter Shaub, then Director of the Office of Government Ethics, called on President Trump to divest from the Trump Organization during his first term, Trump instead transferred his operating businesses to the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust. Many had urged him to use a blind trust. Critics argued the DJT Revocable Trust fell far short of that standard: Trump remained the sole beneficiary, his son controlled the assets, and Trump could revoke the arrangement at any time. Shaub later commented that the arrangement was “meaningless from a conflict of interest perspective” and that “setting up a trust to hold his operating businesses adds nothing to the equation. This is not a blind trust—it’s not even close.” Established 2014 Sources ↗ Stenglein, Christine, "OGE Director warns Trump’s business plan insufficient", The Brookings Institution, January 11, 2017 ↗ Craig, Susanne, and Eric Lipton, "Trust Records Show Trump Is Still Closely Tied to His Empire", The New York Times, February 3, 2017 ↗ Kravitz, Derek, and Al Shaw, "Trump Lawyer Confirms President Can Pull Money From His Businesses Whenever He Wants", ProPublica, April 4, 2017 ←controlled by Donald Trump Jr. According to a 2024 regulatory filing, Donald Trump Jr. "is the sole trustee and has sole voting and

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Reposted by Brayden

usmultipartysystem.pages.dev

I recently took 2024 CES data and mapped out clusters of the American electorate that may form parties if reform were to happen. You can find the simulation here where you can map out different scenarios in the House and see profiles of the different parties: usmultipartysystem.pages.dev?tab=house

An interactive simulation of US elections under proportional representation, built from 45,707 CES 2024 survey responses.

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Reposted by Brayden

Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

In Scottish local elections where they use proportional ranked choice, fewer than 6% of voters aren't represented by their first choice. Compare that to the US where ~36% voted for non-winners. See my sim at usmultiparty.com for how a multiparty system could create more representation.

usmultiparty.com

An interactive simulation of US elections under proportional representation, built from 45,707 CES 2024 survey responses.

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Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

usmultiparty.com

An interactive simulation of US elections under proportional representation, built from 45,707 CES 2024 survey responses.

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Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Regardless, I don't see how the current Congress can or would even want to assert itself as the first branch of government. Increasing the size of the house, a well-funded and expansive legislative civil service, and electoral reform is the only way I can see out of this whole dilemma.

Brayden @braydecker.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

I'm definitely a fan of the concept! With the convergence of the unitary executive theory along with the abolition of truly independent agencies, it seems like we'll end up with either a President with ultimate regulatory power or (if non-delegation wins the day) the collapse of the regulatory state

Also, to clarify if unclear, I didn't write or collect the survey questions. They're publicly available, and I wanted to know what a proportional system could look like, so I took the data, ran the stats, and made this.

These are good questions that qualitative data can unravel! I should dig into the details and write follow-up since trust is a bit theme across many of these clustering studies. CES has a ton of items, so they have to balance survey taker exhaustion and churn.

There's also a certain degree of continuity with other survey items (like those used by ANES) so that they can track trends over time. Inertia's a hell of a master.

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I get it! Part of my day job is crafting survey items, but I never have to do a survey as broad as what the CES does. Broad survey items are by their nature unspecific which is why qualitative work is essential, but it seems a bit underutilized in popular political science outside focus groups.

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Thanks for the shout-out! I thought the quiz would be a fun way to engage with the data but it seems like that's what people are mostly responding to (negatively) I know party formation can be more complex than simple policy mapping, but it's interesting to see the cleavages that already exist!

usmultipartysystem.pages.dev

Good call-out! I was letting the crosstabs do too much of the talking. I updated the sim to have a bit of prose on each of the parties' cards. If you do want to dig into the parties, you can find the crosstabs here: usmultipartysystem.pages.dev?tab=parties.

An interactive simulation of US elections under proportional representation, built from 45,707 CES 2024 survey responses.

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"Solidarity" is moderately traditionalist while being more civil libertarian. Meanwhile, "Order and Opportunity" is strongly law-and-order while holding incredibly progressive racial and economic policy views. Uniform right and left wing views are held by the highly engaged extremes (NAT and PRG).

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It does feel a bit surprising on purely the party labels, but when you map the clusters in a four-factor space (y=law-and-order, x=conservatism, color=religious traditionalism, size=institutional distrust) you see that "conservative" opinions are distributed more evenly across the electorate

The ideological constellation of the American electorate with Nationalists at extreme law and order and conservatism and Progressives at extreme civil libertarianism and progressivism.

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I actually built a sim to map out how a proportional system may work using Cooperative Election Survey data. A big takeaway is that a proportional system would simply lead to greater representation across the board. You can check out the sim here: usmultipartysystem.pages.dev?tab=house

While Echelon has built out similar "tribe" work, I wanted to create a place where I and others could see how this change may affect electoral results. One big insight is around a socially moderate, economically populist cluster of unengaged Americans who are unrepresented in the current system.

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usmultipartysystem.pages.dev