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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I *think* the only thing that I said that @jasonzweigwsj.bsky.social did not is that pumping more money into private equity will also increase the role of PE in our society on the consumer/worker side.... which people seem not to like!

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Really nice piece on the SEC proposal, which I did a little thread about yesterday.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

As I have explained before, this really shows the weakness of the ideology that financial products and services are the solution to everything that is broken in American life. The American people don’t want more financial products. They want an economy that actually works. Fin.

rooseveltinstitute.org

What Is “Financialization” and What Is It Doing to Our Country?

Financialization began as a trend involving Wall Street, moved to Main Street and nonfinancial businesses, and is now increasingly present in Americans’ everyday lives.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

A bigger role for PE in American life!

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

And the flip side of this, not covered by the Journal, is that people also are unhappy with the role of private equity in the American economy–buying up everything from doctor practices to youth sports leagues. If PE gets access to more capital, you know what we will get?

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

If individual investors get pulled into PE, they may systematically get worse investment products with higher fees and lesser returns. Not good!

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

To its credit, @WSJ reports on the mediocre returns and high fees of PE. But a big point to grasp here is that those are the returns for the institutional investors.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Trump administration has exerted a lot of energy to make this happen. But why? People have been all but screaming that they are struggling with affordability. As @WSJ notes, they have NOT been begging to invest in PE! People report being happy with their current investment options.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

PE returns have been mediocre in recent years while other places have been profitable, and PE firms’ historic big institutional investors may be losing interest. Desperate for more capital, PE firms want access to individual investors—and their retirement savings.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

(2) allowing private funds to accept performance-based compensation from more clients (effectively allowing “2 and 20” fee-based PE offerings to more investors). This is a solution in search of a problem. Or rather, it’s trying to solve a problem for PE firms, not people.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The SEC is proposing a bunch of changes, but the two most relevant ones are: (1) changing who is an “accredited investor,” which affects who private funds can take money from;

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

News dropped yesterday that the SEC is moving to make it easier for private equity investment funds to include retail investors, part of the admin’s broader quest to get more individuals into private equity (and to financialize our whole society!). 🧵

wsj.com

SEC Moves to Give Ordinary Investors More Access to Private Equity

The Wall Street regulator Wednesday proposed a slate of changes to open private markets to retail investors, a priority of the Trump administration.

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Reposted by Brad Lipton

Roosevelt Institute @rooseveltinstitute.org · 01/10/2026

NYC is showing what local governments can do to make markets work better for people. Because working people know an unequal economy shows up not just in prices, but in the time and energy it costs. Read the analysis behind the numbers, from @bradlipton.bsky.social and Noa Rosinplotz:

rooseveltinstitute.org

Letter to New York City Department of Consumer and Worker Protection Regarding Proposed Click-to-Cancel Rule

The Roosevelt Institute is glad that the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection is considering adding rules to ensure that consumers can easily cancel subscriptions and are not subject to decept...

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Kalshi is saying it won’t lend to people betting on sports. But if prediction markets don’t have to comply with state law, under the CFTC’s self-certification model, they can file something with the agency tomorrow and start lending to sports bettors in 45 days.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

As my piece explains, that’s a big difference from how gambling rules work at the state level, where regulators generally must approve gambling models BEFORE they go into effect (which in practice makes a big difference for what people can bet on). 7/

rooseveltinstitute.org

How the Federal Rules for Prediction Markets Fall Short of State-Level Gambling Laws

Prediction markets increasingly resemble gambling but operate under far fewer protections. Brad Lipton explains what federal rules leave out and why state gambling laws offer a stronger baseline.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

While the CFTC rules for trading on “margin” are too complicated for a Tweet, one quick thing to note is that as with other CFTC rules, it’s a “self-certification” model: the prediction markets platform files something and can start offering the product UNLESS the government agency acts. 6/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

In Nevada, for example, casinos can only lend to people who the casino has affirmative reason to believe have “an established credit history that is not entirely derogatory.” 5/

gaming.nv.gov

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

There are also some fairly minimal requirements to ensure that casinos don’t extend credit to people who are obviously not going to pay it back. 4/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Notably, both Nevada/Vegas and NJ/Atlantic City allow casinos to extend credit, subject to certain restrictions. The rules are primarily about ensuring that casinos keep good records. 3/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The gambling industry says that thirty-five jurisdictions block or “limit” gambling platforms, including casinos, from extending credit. 2/

americangaming.org

Responsible Gaming Regulations and Statutes Guide - American Gaming Association

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I put out a piece today comparing the rules that apply to traditional gambling with the federal rules for “swaps.” It did not occur to me to summarize state-level gambling rules on lending and credit! So quickly: 1/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

What’s actually at stake in the legal fight between states and prediction markets platforms / the Trump admin, which many are predicting will go to SCOTUS? I hadn’t seen a good analysis of the difference in state laws governing traditional gambling and the federal regime, so I broke it down.

rooseveltinstitute.org

How the Federal Rules for Prediction Markets Fall Short of State-Level Gambling Laws

Prediction markets increasingly resemble gambling but operate under far fewer protections. Brad Lipton explains what federal rules leave out and why state gambling laws offer a stronger baseline.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Had a bunch of recent email interactions with corporate types where not only has AI clearly written their email, but the *person* involved thinks it is totally normal that they have no idea what the email *they sent* said (since the AI wrote it). How is this OK? Is it just me??

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

So is this a good thing for people? The jury’s still out, but I’m skeptical. Fin. 11/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

So the idea that it is “less correlated to public stocks” is inherently suspect. To the degree that private market investments look that way, it’s often because their holding period hides when they accrue gains or losses. 10/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The key economic piece that most people miss: Private equity is NOT an asset class. Private equity is just a range of investments in the economy. 9/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

I have no doubt proponents (people who want to make money off this) say that. But is it true? No! The “premium returns” have been a mirage, especially in recent years, and the lower correlation is mostly an accounting trick. 8/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Here’s where I'd have pushed the reporter to be a bit more critical. He reports that proponents of private-market funds in 401(k)s say they offer “premium returns” and are “less correlated to public stocks.” 7/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

As Rey and I wrote, private markets often have higher fees and more risk than traditional low-cost index funds. Pushing those investments is quite troubling. People have one chance to save for retirement; if they get tripped up by an extractive financial services industry, they may be SOL. 6/

rooseveltinstitute.org

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Even more concerning is BlackRock's suggestion that “we’ve got target-date funds, we’ve got private markets, and we should just push that together for everyone.” Uhhh, what? 5/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Many annuities on the market are loaded with fees and complicated features, making it hard for people to shop for a good product. If this is just another way for Wall Street to extract more money from working people, not good! 4/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The annuity piece is the part that could theoretically be good. Not being able to cleanly convert savings at retirement into a stable retirement income stream is a real problem many face. But I have real concerns that the annuities in these plans will be, for lack of a better word, crappy. 3/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

BlackRock is indicating it intends to include “private markets” — mostly private equity — in 401(k) plans. Presumably only if the Trump admin finalizes its 401(k) proposal and it survives judicial review? BR, VG, Fidelity, and SS are also going to offer funds with a retirement annuity feature. 2/

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

BlackRock says it wants your 401(k) to look more like a pension. Read the @wsj.com piece closely though, and, maybe this is actually all about extracting more money from people? PE for everyone, plus an annuity. Some thoughts, and a few places where Jack's piece takes Wall Street's word for it. 1/

wsj.com

Exclusive | BlackRock Plans to Make the Corporate 401(k) Look More Like a Pension

The investment manager aims to overhaul target-date funds with more options for employers.

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Reposted by Brad Lipton

Roosevelt Institute @rooseveltinstitute.org · 03/09/2026

NYC’s new click-to-cancel rule takes effect October 1, making it easier for New Yorkers to end unwanted subscriptions. Our @bradlipton.bsky.social broke down what the new rule could mean for consumers in a new segment for @scrippsnews.bsky.social. Watch 📺⬇️ www.scrippsnews.com/life/money/n...

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Reposted by Brad Lipton

Shahrzad Shams @shahrzadshams.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

My colleagues @bradlipton.bsky.social & @todusola.bsky.social recently showed how these markets harm users & society at large. Now, I show how those harms are being institutionalized by major firms, lending gambling institutional legitimacy & accelerating the financialization of everything.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

8/ (There is presumably already a market on what the CFTC does next. This does not make me feel better.)

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

7/ In other words: do we want the financialization of everything?

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

6/ Now policymakers are apparently pressuring the CFTC to crack down on these specific contracts. OK, sure. But that's whac-a-mole. The better question isn't which bets to ban. It's whether we want every damn thing in our society to be bettable in the first place.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

3/ Our piece mentioned changes to the maps of the Ukraine war and tampering with weather sensors, apparently due to prediction markets bets. We published that two weeks ago, thinking we were describing risks. Apparently it was a preview.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

2/ The old version of this problem was the 1919 Black Sox, taking gamblers’ money to throw the World Series. A century later, people are allegedly setting forest fires to win prediction markets bets. Progress?

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

1/ My colleague @todusola.bsky.social and I did this piece on the real effects that prediction markets can have on people in our society who DO NOT use those markets, b/c the sheer range of bets available on those platforms gives people incentives to modify their behavior about all sorts of things.

rooseveltinstitute.org

How Prediction Markets Are Shaping Real-World Events and Eroding Public Trust

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly expanding beyond sports betting into politics, news, and global events, raising concerns about insider trading, market manipulation, and their...

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

10/ We’ll likely never know, but one wonders if we are seeing finger-pointing within the Trump Administration playing out unnecessarily in a public forum. A whole extra layer to the fiasco.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

9/ (2) shifting blame to Interior and the contractor before anyone else could assign it; (3) prosecutors protecting their own reputations after presenting a grand jury with evidence that fell apart.

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Brad Lipton @bradlipton.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

8/ So why the essay in the Reflecting Pool case? A few possibilities: (1) fear the court wouldn't rubber-stamp a bare-bones dismissal of a case this politically radioactive;

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