While the venture-tech echo chamber hypes accelerating AI adoption through anecdotal stories, data covering a wider lens of US business and households suggests much more tepid uptake.

Unlike earlier in the year when consumers surged spending to keep up with rising gas prices, spending has not kept up with the second surge in prices this fall.

While our favorite bond doomers amp up their calls for US rate armageddon, the reality is the yield rise looked pretty normal compared to underlying stats & expected tightening ahead.

The last several years have seen markets supported by both fiscal and monetary easing, but those benefits are now reversing which means any new stimulation will require far more unorthodox efforts.

Despite all the rhetoric in recent days intended to create more product supply, it's all marginal in the face of an oil market that if anything looks like it's getting tighter.

AI revenues have finally overtaken depreciation, a very low bar. Getting even a decent return on all the capex planned requires the recent 100% revenue growth rate to accelerate over the next 5 years.

News of lower OpenAI revenue (and hastily ‘leaked’ end-’26 guidance), even as they picked up significant share clearly shows a transition from parabolic to linear industry revenue growth ahead.

Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO and CIO, and Barbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CEO, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the week's market action.

A recording from Bob Elliott and Prometheus Research's live video https://bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/macro-talk-1092026?utm_source=youtube

News of lower OpenAI revenue (and hastily ‘leaked’ end-’26 guidance), even as they picked up significant share clearly shows a transition from parabolic to linear industry revenue growth ahead.

This 2000 Saturn S-Series is in stock and for sale in Lexington, SC. View photos and learn more about this 2000 Saturn S-Series on Edmunds.

US stocks have held up in the face of surging bond yields, corporate spreads, and higher oil prices. The AI mania is the only thing left supporting the market.

Timely data suggests paid models ARR growth slowing considerably in recent months. How will the needed $3tln/yr in revenue come by 2030 when linear growth (or worse) is happening at 120bln/yr?

Timely macro data suggest the surge in AI-related capex continues in line with previous quarters, with the main question whether there is enough real economy demand to meet the buildout.

While French spreads have widened in recent weeks, the underlying dynamics today show very few signs of the type of capital flight that drove the acute crisis years ago.

Surging flows through Hormuz via high risk ship-to-ship transfers are adding a 30-40 bucks / bbl surcharge to every incremental barrel, driving volume to the market but coming at quite the cost.

A recording from Bob Elliott and Prometheus Research's live video https://bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/macro-talk-1022026?utm_source=youtube

Employment measures suggest some improvement recently, but conditions are still quite weak compared to the earnings boom and far from what's needed to keep up with recent HH spending growth.

Millennium Management’s new capital raise attracted billions of dollars more than the firm could take in, signaling surging demand for the biggest multistrategy hedge funds.

Despite the recent surge in oil prices and weak asset returns, households continue to rapidly dissave to support spending growth above income growth.

In new research, Blake Jackson and Ilya Strebulaev track the careers of 100,000 people working at venture capital firms in the United States to ask which investors succeed and why. They find that…