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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 04/10/2026

We also walk through how the stuff impacts predicted outcomes, and how those outcomes impact the Stuff grade blandalytics.com/model-drilld...

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 04/10/2026

Happy to walk through how our model gets to its grades (these breakdowns use a slightly newer model, designed for explainability like this)

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 02/10/2026

You can do this on any pitcher, pitch type, or outcome you'd like! blandalytics.com/model-drilld...

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 02/10/2026

Batted ball outcomes (Out, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR) can be aggregated to estimate "damage allowed on contact" (wOBAcon). Ex: Paul Skenes really limits his damage on contact with his Changeup, thanks to where he locates it and how he deploys it. (7/8)

Predicted wOBAcon (PLV) for Paul Skenes' 2026 Changeup, broken out by how each feature contributes value

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 02/10/2026

With pitch-level outcome estimates, we can drill deeper into "why" the model predicts a given outcome. Ex: Cristopher Sánchez's extreme Horizontal movement on the Sinker adds a ton to Called Strike%, even before you consider count and location. (6/8)

Predicted Called Strike% (Stuff) for Cristopher Sánchez's 2026 Sinker, broken out by how each feature contributes value

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 02/10/2026

Using an outcome-based modeling philosophy allows us to break down which predicted outcomes are driving the pitch's value. Ex: Justin Wrobleski's Slider is net positive thanks to the value it gets from earning whiffs and avoiding balls, even with harder contact allowed. (5/8)

PLV+ for Justin Wrobleski's 2026 Slider, broken out by how each predicted outcome contributes value

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 02/10/2026

Performing that analysis on a given pitch type's Stuff yields a breakdown highlighting what features impacted the Stuff value and by how much. Ex: Jacob Misiorowski' Curveball is so nasty because its extremely fast, while maintaining a solid velo gap to his fastball. (4/8)

Stuff+ for Jacob Misiorowski's 2026 Curveball, broken out by how each feature contributes value

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 01/10/2026

Splitter did its job (get tons of whiffs while never being in the zone)

PLV+ for Kevin Gausman's Splitter, broken out by how each predicted outcome contributes value (hint: lots of whiffs)

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 01/10/2026

Gausman's always had a hittable fastball

Kevin Gausman's 4-Seam Stuff wOBAcon, broken down by feature. "Dead zone" movement and a lack of seam-shifted wake results in it getting hit hard

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 24/09/2026

Not just where the release angles are, but how they fit within a pitch mix

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 22/09/2026

Fresh coat of paint on these, too (h/t @hockeyviz.com for the Tanaka contours inspiration)

Pete Crow-Armstrong's batted-ball distributions for 2026, relative to MLB.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 21/09/2026

How Gavin Williams worked through his plate appearances yesterday.

Gavin Williams' Sequencing Flow diagram for 9/20/2026

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 08/09/2026

Perfect game in AAA! Congrats to Thomas Pannone. That’s dope.

Thomas Pannone’s Pitcher List game card for his 9/7/26 perfect game

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 07/09/2026

Nate Rasmussen (@rasmussenbase.bsky.social, I think?) made this incredible resource for showing the vast array of pitch grips and permutations, along with analysis on how to achieve them, and what the benefits and drawbacks are. Incredible stuff. rasmussenbaseball.com/tools/pitch-...

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 24/08/2026

The Mariners drafted and developed their *entire* 6-man rotation, which is really cool! The weird part is: those pitchers *collectively* threw 7 innings in AAA before their MLB debuts as starters. An entire 6-man MLB rotation effectively skipped AAA, and Sloan is likely to do the same thing!

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 19/08/2026

The Ted Williams zone chart, using wOBA

MLB Strike zone, in the style of the Ted Williams strike zone, with different sections color-coded by wOBA.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 09/08/2026

Found the most *incredible* ABCs book at my mother-in-law’s house

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 07/08/2026

*Looks up “Roller Coaster” in the dictionary, sees this picture*

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 28/07/2026

I’m always referencing this tweet from Max Bay

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 27/07/2026

Game 6 pretty solid in its own right

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 27/07/2026

Game 7 was an all-timer, of course.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 23/07/2026

Defector doesn’t miss defector.com/sophie-cunni...

“What [Sophie] Cunningham has bravely chosen to be is a straight blonde woman with tenuous political commitments; if this constitutes courage, some congratulations are in order at my Pilates class tonight.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 19/06/2026

Same-handed hitters are getting eaten up by Mason Miller's Slider (61.5% Whiff Rate) and Cristopher Sánchez's Changeup (65.4%).

Estimated swing locations for Right-Handed Hitters against Mason Miller's Slider. They're frequently flailing at it and are usually swinging over it.

Estimated swing locations for Left-Handed Hitters against Cristopher Sánchez's Changeup. They're frequently swinging over it and are usually flailing at it.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 12/06/2026

Still waiting for a team to hire @hockeyviz.com, just for the first line

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 09/06/2026

Across all counts, hitters are most accurate against Fastballs in the zone. Their miss distance is less than half of Offspeed pitches in the zone.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 09/06/2026

Hitters are most accurate with their swings when they have 3 balls (especially 3-0). This covers *all* swings, including contact, which was given a miss distance of 0".

Average miss distance, by count. Hitters miss by less with every ball they see in the count

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 30/05/2026

Velo spike. Same movement profile, after adjusting for the velo difference

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 25/05/2026

Saw some Plate Discipline work this afternoon, which got the data viz wheels turning. Here are the In- and Out-of-Zone Decision Value components of our Process stat suite.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 25/05/2026

Man. Jarred Kelenic's season was"What if Luke Raley was unlucky"

PLV Hitter Stats for Jarred Kelenic & Luke Raley. They're eerily similar, highlighting average decision-making, significant whiff problems, and massive power on contact

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 20/05/2026

What all of the men are looking at on their phones:

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 14/05/2026

The Rays are the best 2026 team in adding Contact Runs! And they’re doing it by giving away the least value to whiffs. The problem is that they're adding the fewest Power Runs, which is a much larger driver of overall run scoring, so they're Bottom 5 in Process Runs.

Bottom 5 teams by 2026 Process Runs, through 5/11/26. Tampa Bay Rays are 5th worst, despite being the best team at adding value by making contact.

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 05/05/2026

For those of you who think grades should be normally distributed, I initially did too. But baseball is a weird sport. No need to try to make it Normal.

Midwit meme, transformed to the (notably not normal) Start Grade distribution, with the extreme wojaks stating "Grading is subjective", and the midwit wojak stating "Grades should be normally distributed!"

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 05/05/2026

Those thresholds yielded the following distribution of start grades across the start population

Distribution of 2022-2025 start grades, using the previously mentioned Game Score and Letter Grade systems

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 05/05/2026

We then applied that Game Score formula to all 2022-2025 starts, and created score thresholds for assigning Letter Grades that matched the crowd-sourced distribution

Table of letter grades and the minimum Game Scores required to earn that grade

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Kyle Bland @blandalytics.pitcherlist.com · 05/05/2026

After some feature selection, two simple linear regressions (one to ID outliers, then one to base stat weights on), and some creative rounding... We have a Game Score formula! Game Score = 30 + 8*IP - 7*ER + 2*K - 2*BB - H - HR

Distribution of Model Error (predicted - observed grades) for modeled start grades, highlighting the outlier scores

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