iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Latest Statcan population data: growth slows to a trickle...

Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Setting aside the fact that Belarus wouldn’t come close to having enough potash available for export to replace Canadian imports, imagine thinking relying on **Belarus** to grow your country’s food supply was a viable option! 🤦🏼‍♂️

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Oops, meant to capture how the "average price" is defined:

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

For Q3 (Jul-Sep), Alberta suspended their fuel tax relief program (graduated tax based on oil prices) in favour of $100 rebate cheques. No word yet for Q4, but if my calculations are correct, the fuel tax should drop from $0.13/L to $0 for Oct-Dec. #abpoli

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Erm… 😳 This might get lost in all the craziness in the world right now, but this claim deserves far more attention and action.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Second, are forward prices on the rise? i.e. Do traders expect power prices to be higher in the future now as compared to what they thought a few years ago? Answer: mixed. Near-term winter (Jan 2027) is hitting new lows. Longer-term (Jan 2030) is near highs.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

First, should you fix or float? Forward prices tell us prices are set to rise in the 2 to 5 year time frame, but fixed price offers already reflect that. 5-year fixed rates are ~9c, compared to 6c for 1-year. You're paying a premium for risk protection on longer-dated terms.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Add the pending TMX expansion, maybe a TMXX, and we might be forming a trend...

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

When your teenage kids ask you to wake up at 4am and do a sunrise hike up to the top of a mountain. #yes Go Canada! 🇨🇦 love this country

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Voting is going to be a shmozzle. Long delays won’t deter the small but fervent Leave voters. Even with big polling favorables, Stay will need to get out and vote. Easiest: get a mail-in ballot. Takes 2 mins to order. No special reason needed. specialballot.elections.ab.ca/index/8400

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

You can’t make this up: Alberta seeks help from other Canadian provinces to run referendum on separating from Canada www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alber...

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

And here's the same data as a single time series back to 2008 (rather than annual plots)

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Hydropower's share in Canadian electricity generation has been falling, largely due to major droughts. Hints of a rebound in 2026 after a dismal 2025?

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Is Trump going to tariff the Pacific NW too? We are currently “enjoying” their cross-border smoke.

Wildfire map showing many wildfires spread across B.C., Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California

Smoke view of the Canadian Rocky Mountains today

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Sylvan Lake may be the epicentre for the Alberta sovereignty debate. Every 2nd house has either a Canadian flag or is plastered with grievance Alberta billboards. Here’s one of the more colourful ones… Gonna need all you #CanadaForever folks to step up and vote in October!

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Dear Donald, Can you do something about your smoke please? - A concerned Canadian

Firestone map showing dozens of wildfires in the US PacificNW

The smoke filled sky in Red Deer, Alberta, today

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

As the sun sets on Team Canada’s World Cup run, enjoy some sunsets from the edge of Europe…

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Hey #YYCbike, i'm selling my beloved Riese & Müller Packster 70 cargo bike. Dual battery (both recently replaced), custom rain cover, winter tires, twice yearly serviced at @bikebikeyyc.bsky.social, excellent condition. Replacement cost >$14k. Asking $7,200 www.facebook.com/share/14fE3J...

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

What's driving this? Hint: it's not renewables integration costs. In a different paper with Brown & Eckert we found ~3/4 of the 2021-23 price increase came from a temporary boost in market power. This shows up in the energy component. As of 2024, that's gone and system costs are at 2018-20 levels.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

CD Howe has a new paper out comparing power prices across Canada, updating one I co-wrote in 2018. They include this chart of renewables vs system cost. I fear it may get unfairly weaponized solely based on using 2023 data for AB. Fast forward to 2024 or 25 and it looks very different! 1/3

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Unexpected May Long Weekend speech writing time... 🤓

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

And a time series version. Quebec has some room to grow to get back to its 44% high!

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

I made an error on my previous EV chart! (Thanks @pjpartington.bsky.social for the catch). Sales shares are even higher than i showed. Canadian EV sales shares return to 2024 levels:

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Slight update: credits are currently trading closer to $36 per tonne. Up from the previous $20-30. Still a far cry from $95, let alone $130.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

I could be wrong, but I don’t feel like ‘American donut chains’ are what Canadians are clamouring for right now…

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

They propose 3 paths: A: “come hedged” B: differential reliability C: Long term standardized forward energy contracting!

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Big news in power market design world: PJM concedes their current design is “not tenable” and requires an overhaul. 1/4

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Share of household spending on electricity for principal accomodation, all Canadian provinces, 2010-2023 Most in decline. AB rose due to power (energy component) spike through 2023. More recent data would see that level off.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The share of Albertans on the default electricity rate continues to fall. Now at the lowest on record: 20% That's good! The regulated "rate of last resort" is 12 cents. Compare that to 6-8c for current fixed rate offers, and 3-5c for recent floating options. If you can leave the RoLR, you should.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Canadians are continuing to avoid travel to the US as much as possible. Here are monthly air travel counts.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Crude oil futures open with a bang. WTI up 9% to $105.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

He’s really running with this narrative now!

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Earth behind the moon is quite something to see. #Artemis

Picture of the dark side of the moon with a crescent earth behind it.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

PSA for Canadians trying to do the math on EV « fuel » costs: Take your per kWh electricity cost and *double* it. That’s your « effective gas price » in $/L Eg. $0.15/kWh = $0.30/L effective gas price Compare to this in Vancouver right now… Yup, ICE currently 7x the cost.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Crude oil futures respond to Trump’s speech 🚀

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Call it a “hanging funicular”, but this was at the top of Sulphur Mountain gondola at 3 years ago Camp

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Later on they seem to describe OBAs properly by applying the carbon price only above the threshold. The bigger concern i have is there appears to be no margin for reducing emission intensity in the model; a key OBPS incentive! If that can be done below the carbon price it reduces the policy cost.

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

The Iran war effect. About 2x the drop from the carbon tax removal in April.

Graph of Canadian average gasoline prices showing a recent surge in the past 3 weeks of roughly $0.40/L.

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