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Birdland Metrics

@birdlandmetrics.com
287 followers 193 following 257 posts

Independent analytics for Baltimore Orioles fans. Playoff odds, player benchmarks and stats, data visualizations and more. Newsletter -> birdlandmetrics.com/#newsletter Team stats 📒 -> birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/orioles-team-stats

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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 09/07/2026
Our new Team Stats page is up on the site! What is it? An Orioles-specific dashboard of team batting, starting pitching, bullpen, RISP, ABS and more! Data updates daily. Link below: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizatio...
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 22/06/2026
We have our 8th perfect window of the season! All 4 panes lit up, Brandon Young had a shaky 1st, but bounced back w/ a solid 5IP and only 1ER vs one of the best lineups in baseball. The bullpen held it down, the bats were alive, and fielding was solid. What a great Father’s Day! BAL 12, LAD 1.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 21/06/2026
And our popular warehouse windows visualization, in a completely new way:
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 21/06/2026
We also built a few widgets, so you can have key info right on your home screen:
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 11/06/2026
O’s with a much needed 7-2 win. All 4 panes given a "strong" grade for just the 7th perfect window of the season! Young's 7 shutout innings anchored a dominant performance - offense, defense, and both pitching units firing on all cylinders Full visual: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/warehouse
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 08/06/2026
The Orioles OPS leaderboard through 66 games so far this season (min 30 PAs) Adley has been in the top spot for 33 games Basallo has been in the top spot for 10 games
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 05/06/2026
The O's are 24th in MLB in run differential but it's a bit of a skewed story. 6 of 63 games (~10%) account for a -55 net run differential: 17-1 L vs. BOS NYY series where they were swept (bad 4 games) 13-3 L vs. WSH Removing these 6 games, the O's have a +18 run differential
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 04/06/2026
A PERFECT WINDOW TODAY! This is just the 6th game all season that all four panes have a "strong" grade: Rogers' quality start anchored a wire-to-wire victory. The O's bats mashed 6 runs in the 1st, no fielding errors, and the bullpen closed the door. They are rolling into Toronto!
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 03/06/2026
Excited to announce that our pitcher tab is now live on our stats page! There’s still work to do, and we welcome feedback, but you can see some cool stats compiled and updated daily specifically for O’s batters & pitchers. Check it out 👇: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/orioles-player-stats
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 29/05/2026
🚨 New page on our site! 1) Who's hot in the O's lineup? Who's cold? 2) 14-day, 30-day production breakdowns 3) Batting quality and luck breakdowns 4) Deep dive into platoon splits All of this and more in our new batter ledger: (data updated daily)👇 birdlandmetrics.com/visualizatio...
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 23/05/2026
The O’s recorded their 2nd highest season total in hits tonight (14). Notables: Alonso: 1-3, HR, 4 RBIs Gunnar: 3-5, 2 singles, 1 double Holliday: 2-3, HR, 1 single 3 out of 4 panes lit in gold tonight on the warehouse window: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/warehouse
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 22/05/2026
Samuel Basallo carried a .384 BA over 20 games (77 PAs) from 4/20-5/17 At 21y, 281d old, he became the 7th Oriole ever to have a .384+ BA over any 20G span at that age or younger The other six: Brooks Robinson (HOF) Eddie Murray (HOF) Manny Machado (7x AS) Vern Stephens (7x AS) Bob Hale Dick Kokos
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 20/05/2026
Samuel Basallo has produced offense 83% better than the league-average hitter over the past 30 days with a 183 wRC+. This ranks 4th among all hitters in baseball with at least 80 PAs since April 20th. That’s a scary-good stretch from the 21-year-old since mid-April.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 19/05/2026
A brutal 3-start stretch for Trevor Rogers He joins Kodai Senga as the only other pitcher in MLB this season to allow 16+ earned runs in fewer than 10 innings pitched Senga allowed 16 ER in 8.1 IP back in April Rogers has now allowed 16 ER over 9.1 IP across his last 3 starts
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 13/05/2026
The O’s blank the Yanks! All four window panes light up gold today. Bradish's shutout start anchored a complete team performance with strong grades in BAT, FLD, and BP. This is just the 5th "perfect" window of '26 Check out the rest of the game grades👇 birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/warehouse
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 09/05/2026
🚨NEW VISUAL Every O's game depicted as a lit window on the OPACY Warehouse Game performance split across 4 panes: Starting Pitching Batting Bullpen Fielding The stronger the light, the better they did '23, '24, & '25 seasons included. Check it out: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/warehouse
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 21/04/2026
We’ll be releasing our first mailbag article this week! Ask us anything. Have questions about our models or projections? Specific O’s players? Want us to dive into the AL playoff picture as it stands right now? Don’t be shy!👇 birdlandmetrics.com/#mailbag
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 13/04/2026
Is this the breakout game for Pete Alonso? Historically against Ryne Nelson he’s had success: 4 HOME RUNS 1 Single 1 K .455 AVG 2.000 OPS In 11 ABs & 51 pitches seen Let’s see if he’ll have similar luck against him tonight. Enjoy this 113.2 mph exit velocity bomb in 2023 💨
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 13/04/2026
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 08/04/2026
Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% jumped from 8.5% to 17.2% and is projected 39 HRs. The only benchmark he hasn't cleared yet is xwOBA (.345 vs the .370 bar) and honestly, with barrels doubling (so far and we're still early), the results are coming. 2 of 3 projections are on track.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 02/04/2026
Through 6 games the O’s bats are showing two stories: 1) They are not hitting well when bases are empty (rank #21 of 30 teams) 2) They are league BEST when at least one runner is on base (and 4th with RISP) Sample is small but the gap is 2nd largest in baseball
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 01/04/2026
As of Gunnar's latest at-bat, pitchers appear to be attacking him with much more off-speed/breaking balls this year. Over 105 pitches: He's seeing only 23.8% FB, down significantly from previous yrs (45.9% to 48.5% range) Low sample size but something to watch
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 30/03/2026
Just two O’s players in tonight’s lineup have faced Leiter in the past: Taylor Ward: 1K, 1HR (3PA) Blaze Alexander: 2Ks, 1HBP, 1HR (4PA) Ward capitalized on a 87.2 mph slider that hung over the plate for his HR Blaze scorched a 98.3mph FF up in the zone, 105.3 mph EV (411 ft)👇
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 28/03/2026
3 out of the 6 batters in the lineup today have hit a HR off of Taj Bradley: Gunnar Henderson Colton Cowser Pete Alonso But Bradley’s splitter and curve have been tough on these guys in the past Hoping for more of this from Gunnar today (111.3 mph EV, 446 ft), lol he destroyed this one in 2023 💨👇
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 25/03/2026
Gunnar Henderson: 3 PA, 1 H, 1 SO (18 pitches seen) He hit a 103.4 mph EV single off of him in July 2023. *also, he crushed a homer off Ryan in spring training of 2024, he left a 95 mph fastball up in the zone that Gunnar hit over the fence (110.4 mph EV and ~451 ft).
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 25/03/2026
Pete Alonso vs. Joe Ryan: 2 PA, 1 H, 1 BB (8 total pitches seen) The Polar Bear demolished a 110.5 mph EV single off of him in April 2025 and also drew a walk in the same game.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 25/03/2026
Tyler O'neill vs. Joe Ryan: 2 PA, 1 H, 1 HR (9 pitches seen) If his Opening Day HR streak doesn't have you convinced that he should be in the lineup tomorrow, he did smoke a 431 ft (104.1 mph EV) homer off him in 2023.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 21/03/2026
Ex-Orioles can't catch a break. Hoping the best for both Stowers and G-Rod.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 20/03/2026
We are less than one week away from Opening Day! Very excited to have in-season data start to feed into our models soon. Be sure to check daily changes to our AL East playoff odds, the O’s expected Ws, and player benchmarks for the 2026 season. It’s going to be a fun year! birdlandmetrics.com
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 19/03/2026
Coby Mayo’s latest home run was as close as you can get to a “perfect” barrel, and becomes a hit roughly 99% of the time. In short, it was a no doubter off the bat! 110.3 mph and 26 degree launch angle is *chef’s kiss*
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 14/03/2026
Good to see Adley with some nice, hard contact today. His home run and single both smoked at ~103 mph. In our article discussing what Adley needs to do to have a bounceback year in 2026, one key point was getting his hard hit rate moving back in the right direction — great sign today!
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 13/03/2026
Opening Day is less than two weeks away! We added a mailbag to Birdland Metrics — ask us anything about our models, projections, or Orioles analysis. No question is too basic or too nerdy. Best questions answered in a monthly mailbag article starting in April. birdlandmetrics.com/#mailbag
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 09/03/2026
How in the world is Gunnar not in the lineup again tonight?
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 08/03/2026
…and even better haha
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 08/03/2026
Some excellent at bats from Gunnar tonight with 2 RBIs, and currently sitting #1 (111.4 mph) and #4 (108.1 mph) on the exit velocity leaderboard according to Statcast — love to see it
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 04/03/2026
Our “projected wins” come from 10K daily simulations of the 2026 season. This histogram tells the real story — every possible win total for all 5 AL East teams. Right now? A lot of variance. It’ll tighten as the season goes. Check back daily and follow the O’s chances of getting back to the playoffs
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 03/03/2026
The O's most likely win total sits at 81W with ~37% playoff odds (FanGraphs has us at 84W). Last year's down season is still weighing on the preseason ELO, but a strong start could shake things up fast. Looking forward to following along as in-season data starts flowing in a few weeks!
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 27/02/2026
I built a projection system for the Orioles' 10 core players and set 3 benchmarks each that we'll track all season. Here's how it works — and why it matters for 2026. 🧵
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 26/02/2026
One thing I love about running playoff simulations: projected Ws and playoff probability don't always move together. 2/26: the Jays projects for 86W, Red Sox for 85—but the Sox have higher playoff odds (64% to 61%). It's not just about win totals; but about when and against whom those wins happen.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 26/02/2026
Trevor Rogers is off to a strong start. Although the sample size is small, it’s promising to see his fastball velocity is consistent with last year’s average (92.8 mph), his K% is up from 2025, and he’s posting a 0.0 ERA, no walks and 6Ks through his first 5 IP in Spring Training.
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Birdland Metrics @birdlandmetrics.com · 25/02/2026
What does this mean for the Orioles so far in Sarasota? Well, Chayce McDermott had a stellar first 2.0 IP:
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