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Bernat Camps Adrogué

@bernatcamps.bsky.social
212 followers 94 following 63 posts

Director at Lion's Head Global Partners working with EM Sovereigns and MDBs | IMF, SDRs and Debt | CGD, LSE & UPF alumni | Views are my own.

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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
The EU has a finite supply of grants for budget support to its partner countries. In a new report with @cgdev.org colleagues, we show that most of these grants are used where concessional loans could suffice. We propose fixing the grant-loan mix to maximise impact at no extra cost to the EU budget.
cgdev.org
A Renewed EU Budget Support Framework to Maximise Leverage and Impact
Drawing on a comparative assessment of international best practices and financial modelling of alternative grant–loan configurations, this paper explores how EU budget support can be strengthened to e...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
With increasing pressure on EU development budgets,optimising the impact of the EU’s concessional finance is critical. Check out this paper we have put together with @cgdev.org colleagues on how the EFSD+ guarantee instrument can be strengthened to support EMDEs better. www.cgdev.org/publication/...
cgdev.org
The European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus: Maximising the EU Guarantee for Leverage and Impact
With increasing pressure on European development budgets, optimizing the efficiency and impact of the European Union’s concessional finance is critical. This paper examines how the European Fund for S...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Here waiting for Moody's, S&P and Fitch to put the US on watch...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Indeed... and also indicative of Senegal's position which received 3-notch downgrade in less than 6 months (+ an extra 30% probability according to Moody's to be downgraded in the next year, compared to less than 15% of all B3-rated issuers)
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Minor correction which makes it tougher, B3 from B1...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
The African Financing Stability Mechanism (AFSM) technical and operational report is finally out! Africa is the only continent without a Regional Financing Arrangement, making this initiative a game changer to address African financial vulnerabilities. www.afdb.org/en/documents...
afdb.org
African Financing Stability Mechanism (AFSM) Technical and Operational Report
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
Sovereign debt issues for EMDEs were a predictable subject of many conversations at the WB-IMF Annual Meetings. In a new CGD blog, Masood Ahmed, Hannah Brown & I share our takeaways on the state of play and how to make progress to address urgent needs. cgdev.org/blog/main-ta...
cgdev.org
Main Takeaways on Debt from the Annual Meetings
Sovereign debt issues for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) were a predictable subject of many conversations at the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Marrakech. Here are our main t...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 14/11/2023
Does SDR recycling impair reserve management? In a new Center for Global Development note, Mark Plant and I show that the UK can manage its reserves well and recycle SDRs to vulnerable countries, but the IMF can learn from this case to reform the VTA choice mechanism. www.cgdev.org/publication/...
cgdev.org
Does SDR Recycling Impair Reserve Management? The Case of the United Kingdom
In the wake of a challenging year, the Bank of England (BoE) has found itself navigating a tumultuous economic landscape marked by significant upheavals. Following the release of the mini-budget in Se...
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Reposted by Bernat Camps Adrogué
Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 02/11/2023
One issue - rightfully flagged by @bernatcamps.bsky.social on the other platform - is missing from the op-ed. Low income countries are sheltered from surging SDR interest but not completely because if they drew on their SDR allocations it's akin to a perpetual loan with a variable rate (the SDRi)...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 30/10/2023
Two years after the G20 commitment to recycling US$100 billion worth of SDRs to vulnerable nations, pledges still fall short and less than 1% of the promised support reached vulnerable economies. Here's an update from Mark Plant and me: www.cgdev.org/blog/empty-w...
cgdev.org
Empty Words, Empty Wallets: The G20’s Broken Promise on SDR Recycling
In August 2021, as the world continued to grapple with the far-reaching effects of the ongoing global pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took a significant step to help. Recognizing the u...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 25/10/2023
Press release: www.rockefellerfoundation.org/news/marrake...
rockefellerfoundation.org
Marrakech Meeting on SDRs Rechanneling: Accelerating Development Finance Through Multilateral Develo...
MARRAKECH, MOROCCO | October 23, 2023 ― The African Development Bank (AfDB), Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), The Rockefeller Foundation, and the
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 25/10/2023
-Next steps: COP28 presidency offering full support to showcase the proposal at a high-level event on Finance Day on December 4th during COP28. The AfDB and IDB did a great job developing this proposal, now it's time for donors to step up. www.cgdev.org/blog/funding...
cgdev.org
Funding Hybrid Capital at the AfDB is the Best Deal for SDR Donors
Many advanced-economy countries are looking for ways to recycle their excess Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to support more vulnerable countries whose economies are being buffeted by the economic after...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 25/10/2023
- France confirmed its participation in the SDR rechanneling to MDBs through the Liquidity Support Agreement - The participants agreed to establish a working group to identify contributions ASAP and resolve the remaining technical issues faced by donors
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 25/10/2023
On October 13th, CGD, the AfDB, the IDB, and the Rockefeller Foundation hosted a high-level meeting to discuss the rechanneling of SDRs to MDBs. Key takeaways from the PR: - Representatives from the IMF noted that in the Staff's view, the hybrid capital proposal meets the Reserve Asset Status!
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 24/10/2023
And the blog summarising the findings (but as always, recommend reading the whole thing): www.cgdev.org/blog/do-fina... 4/4
cgdev.org
Do Financial Markets Reflect Climate Risks?
Widespread climate shocks, from heatwaves and droughts to hurricanes and coastal flooding, affect nations across all income levels, with profound implications for economic growth and human welfare. Wi...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 24/10/2023
This implies a triple whammy of challenges for emerging market economies as they confront the economic damages of climate change, the high fiscal costs of climate adaptation, and high borrowing costs. 3/4 Link to the paper: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
cgdev.org
Climate Change and Government Borrowing Costs: A Triple Whammy for Emerging Market Economies
Climate change is a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting the potential economic consequences of climate change, there is relatively little researc...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 24/10/2023
Findings: 1- We find that changes in climate debt are an important determinant of spreads, but only in emerging economies. 2- Countries with high vulnerabilities and low resiliency to climate change also pay higher spreads. 2/4
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 24/10/2023
New CGD Working Paper - Climate Change and Government Borrowing Costs: A Triple Whammy for Emerging Market Economies. We investigate the impact of both climate debt and climate vulnerability/resilience on sovereign bond yields and spreads in AE and EM using a novel dataset. 1/4
cgdev.org
Climate Change and Government Borrowing Costs: A Triple Whammy for Emerging Market Economies
Climate change is a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting the potential economic consequences of climate change, there is relatively little researc...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
However, I do agree with the call for donors to close the gaps in PRGT resources. The PRGT is key for LICs and although donors made a great effort during AM to close these gaps, there's still room for a bigger PRGT. www.cgdev.org/publication/...
cgdev.org
Whither or Wither the PRGT? Funding Options for a Cash-Strapped PRGT
The IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) faces large financing needs. Unprecedented levels of lending since the start of the pandemic – four to five times higher than before the pandemi...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
Most of the chunk of PRGT-eligible countries still have room to borrow more under the PRGT as the limit is currently at 435%. What could be raised is the annual limit currently set at 145% so countries can borrow more under the PRGT per year.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
3) I only partly disagree with aligning PRGT access thresholds with those of the GRA. In the March review, GRA access limits were raised but not for the PRGT due to the lack of subsidy resources. Although I think it's a great initiative, it will likely have no impact(table below)
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
The IMF struggled to find subsidy resources and still needs to meet the updated subsidy pledge, expanding eligibility for the PRGT will only worsen the problem. www.cgdev.org/blog/running...
cgdev.org
Running on Empty: Why the PRGT’s Subsidy Resources Need to be Replenished Soon
Current resources for the IMF's PRGT are not sufficient to support continued high demand. The problem is the lack of subsidy resources, which has worsened markedly in the current environment. Donors w...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
2) I don't think the Fund should relax the PRGT eligibility criteria. There are already 70 countries eligible for the PRGT (only 6 less than IDA), adding more countries will likely crowd out programs that should go to the countries that need this the most.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 19/10/2023
I must say I disagree with some of the remarks made by the Governor of the Bank of Ghana on the PRGT. Short thread 1) Surcharges only apply to borrowing from the GRA, lending under the PRGT comes without surcharges (although yes, eliminate surcharges for GRA) www.businessghana.com/site/news/Bu...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
10: Last but not least, The IMFC calls for the creation of a 25th chair on the IMF EB for Sub-Saharan Africa to improve Africa's voice and representation on the board. Link to the statement: www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...
imf.org
Chair's Statement: Forty-Eighth Meeting of the IMFC
We express our deepest condolences to the people of Afghanistan and Morocco for the tragic loss of life and widespread destruction caused by the recent devastating earthquakes. We also express our dee...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
9: On debt, it welcomes progress in Zambia, Sri Lanka, and Suriname, but calls for progress in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Malawi. It also supports stronger creditor coordination for debt restructuring in LICs and MICs outside the CF.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
8: Some news for the RST. So far,it's been focused on climate change but the statement mentions the operationalization of the pandemic preparedness aspect of the trust. We'll see how that goes as the results so far from the climate part are not encouraging. www.cgdev.org/blog/resilie...
cgdev.org
The Resilience and Sustainability Facility’s Recent Programs Still Fall Short of its Ambitious Goa...
In an earlier paper (and blog) published in March, we assessed the initial five programs supported by the IMF’s the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), a new financing vehicle designed to hel...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
7: The statement also points out the subsequent comprehensive review of the PRGT facilities. This great paper from David Andrews explores what funding options the IMF could explore, TL;DR there are no easy options. www.cgdev.org/publication/...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
6: Also on the PRGT, there will be a review of the PRGT access limits. This is great news as when the fund increased the access limits for the GRA on March 2023, they said they couldn't do so for the PRGT as there weren't enough subsidy resources. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
5: IMFC Chair claims victory for the closure of the Stage 1 fundraising gaps for the subsidy and loan accounts of the PRGT. BUT, it's not clear enough if that is the 2021 target or the updated one which accounts for higher SDRi (likely to be the 2021 one). www.cgdev.org/blog/running...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
3: Following the completion of the 16th General Review of quotas, they call on the fund to review the GRA Access Limits (which has implications on lending and surcharges). 4: FINALLY, "we will consider a review of surcharges policies".
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
2: Commitment to concluding the 16th General review of quotas by December 2023 - there is an agreement on a meaningful increase of quotas by the end of the year. Also, further down the line a quota realignment including through a new quota formula (by June 2025).
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
IMFC Chair's Statement 10 key takeaways: 1: The global economy has been resilient, with the 2023 growth outlook slightly upgraded since the Spring. However, recovery has been uneven and medium-term global growth projections remain weak.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
No announcement on subsidy resources yet, which constraints loan resources, but we can expect something this week. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
imf.org
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—2023 Borrowing Agreements with the Government of Australia, the...
This paper presents the second set of PRGT borrowing agreements that have been finalized through April 2023 as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to cover the cost of pandemic-r...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
The UK will also provide the SDR 1.5 bn in loan resources at a concessional rate (~0.05% per annum), generating implicit subsidies of about SDR 250 million. This is because when it lends to the PRGT, the UK forgoes the compensatory interest from the PRGT. www.cgdev.org/blog/quick-a...
cgdev.org
A Quick and Easy Way to Subsidize the PRGT
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) needs more subsidy resources to continue its concessional lending to low-income countries (LICs) at current levels. Following the example set by the United Kingdo...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
New loan resources for the PRGT! Borrowing agreements with Australia, China, Finland, France, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the UK will provide new PRGT loan resources in a total amount of about SDR 5.1 billion (~6.7 bn$). That means the loan resources target has been met.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
Interesting graph in the WEO on changes in tanker shipments from Russia's ports from 2019 to 2023 (decreases in blue and increases in red). Russian oil shipments rose after the invasion to China, India, Turkiye and the UAE; And Europe imported more from Norway, UAE and the US.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
The WEO is out, the likelihood of a soft landing has increased, but the growth forecast is the lowest in decades. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
That's it. Finally, make sure you read what Center for Global Development experts are watching at the Annual Meetings to get a better sense of what to expect from next week: www.cgdev.org/blog/what-we...
cgdev.org
What We’re Watching at the Annual Meetings
Next week, finance ministers and other officials from around the world will descend on Marrakech for the World Bank and IMF annual meetings. Read on for a range of quick reactions from CGD's experts o...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
But the PRGT urgently needs subsidy resources to continue supporting LICs. Subsidy resources are what makes the PRGT concessional, so without these resources lending under the trust will be a fraction of its current levels. www.cgdev.org/blog/running...
cgdev.org
Running on Empty: Why the PRGT’s Subsidy Resources Need to be Replenished Soon
Current resources for the IMF's PRGT are not sufficient to support continued high demand. The problem is the lack of subsidy resources, which has worsened markedly in the current environment. Donors w...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
But some caveats on that. Mark Plant and I already mentioned few months ago that now is not the time to increase funding to the RST as the IMF doesn't have the capacity to absorb an increase effectively. www.cgdev.org/blog/now-not...
cgdev.org
Now Is NOT the Time to Increase Funding to the IMF’s RST
The IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) has gotten a lot of support from donors wanting to recycle their IMF special drawing rights (SDRs). As of June 8, total pledges for the RST am...
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
To strengthen this safety net, the IMF is calling on their member countries to bolster the IMF's quota resources. Regarding this, make sure you read yesterday's FT piece. Also the MD calls for members to step in with more financing for the PRGT and RST www.ft.com/content/0028...
ft.com
Why the ‘Global South’ isn’t running the IMF
China’s conflicted interests and strategic rivalries are helping to preserve the status quo of rich-country dominance
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
Third, international cooperation, especialy on climate change and debt challenges. The MD also calls to strengthen the global financial safety net as 100 vulnerable emerging and LICs lack sufficient reserves and access to swap lines
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
Second, scaling up investment in education, addressing infrastructure gaps and improvement in governance and state capacity. It is yet to be seen how countries are supposed to scale up and address infrastructure gaps when they have no fiscal space to do so.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
3 policy priorities to tackle those challenges: First, fight inflation - This means interest rates to remain higher for longer. Then, "Rebuild the budgetary reform for maneuver", which basically means scraping energy subsidies and enhance domestic resource mobilization
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
2: Deepening divergence. The cumulative global output loss from all successive shocks since 2020 amounts to $3.7 trillion as of 2023. That loss is unevenly distributed with the US' output returning to pre-pandemic path and LICs and Africa being hit the hardest.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
1: Weak Growth. Although the world economy has shown remarkable resilience, the recovery from the shocks is slow and uneven. From the last updated forecast, global growth remains weak and prospects have weakened (with economic fragmentation threatening to undermine growth even more).
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
Ahead of the Annual Meetings in Marrakech, IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva gave a speech at Côte d'Ivoire on the outlook for the global economy and policy priorities. Key takeaways in this thread, but first some context: www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...
imf.org
2023 IMF Annual Meetings Curtain Raiser Speech
Ahead of the 2023 Annual Meetings, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will deliver the curtain raiser speech outlining global policy priorities.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 05/10/2023
The Bretton Woods Project just published an interesting brief on reconceptualising SDRs as a tool for development finance.The brief calls for: 1:Periodic general allocations 2:Decoupling SDRs from quotas 3:Revisiting IMF tools and rechanneling mechanisms www.brettonwoodsproject.org/2023/10/reco...
brettonwoodsproject.org
Reconceptualising Special Drawing Rights as a tool for development finance - Bretton Woods Project
Briefing examines the shortcomings of the current SDRs allocation system and calls to reform SDRs to ensure their targeted, needs-based and equitable distribution.
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Bernat Camps Adrogué @bernatcamps.bsky.social · 03/10/2023
Expanding even more the VTA membership would distribute transactions across a broader range of countries and increase capacity. Finally, good time to mention that the ex-post assessment report of the SDR 2021 allocation was published a few months ago. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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