iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 15h

Last week someone asked me if they should put 100% of their portfolio in bonds now that rates are higher Someone else asked why they shouldn't just always have 100% in stocks What's a better investment right now: Stocks or bonds? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/bett...

awealthofcommonsense.com

Better Investment Right Now: Stocks or Bonds? - A Wealth of Common Sense

Should you have 100% of your portfolio in stocks? Should you have 100% of your portfolio in bonds?

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Top 10 S&P 500 holdings as a % of market cap by year: 1980 - 26% 1985 - 20% 1990 - 20% 1995 - 18% 2000 - 24% 2005 - 20% 2010 - 19% 2015 -19% 2020 - 25% Today - 40% Pretty wild

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Americans spend more $$$ on the lottery than sporting events, books, video games, movie tickets & music combined Most bets on prediction markets have a low chance of winning Most NFL bets are parlays Why do so many people like making longshot bets? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/bett...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I'm not a macro economist but I have two crazy ideas to lower inflation: 1. Stop starting wars in the Middle East 2. Stop putting unnecessary tariffs on our trading partners Seems like it would be a good start

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Animal Spirits: Are Higher Rates Worse than ZIRP? Stock market concentration is here to stay How to hedge AI market risk The degens are still here Rich ppl don't answer surveys anymore Why ppl love betting on longshots Tariffs were a terrible idea awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Annualized S&P 500 returns over: 3 years +23.0% 5 years +13.9% 10 years +15.6% 15 years +15.2% 17 years +14.3% This is a generational bull market

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

137k households now control 15% of all US household wealth Wealth for the top 0.1% has grown $15 trillion in the 2020s alone 5 million households are worth $5 million or more There are more rich ppl than ever before awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/the-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

My kids watched Angels in the Outfield today and this movie has a sneaky amazing cast in hindsight: Joesph Gordon Levitt Danny Glover Christopher Lloyd Matthew Mcconaughey Adrien Brody Dermot Mulroney Tony Danza Plus the pigeon lady from Home Alone 2

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

AI is the biggest risk everyone already knows about It checks all the boxes: Capex cycle, debt, concentration, speculation These are also the biggest companies in history making this happen If anyone tells you they know how this ends they are delusional awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/the-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

True. It’s going to take a real financial crisis to remind ppl what a bad economy actually looks like. Guess happens to every generation

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Why is consumer sentiment at all-time lows with the stock market at all-time highs? Inflation? Housing? Wealth inequality? Politics? Social media? Surveys? All of the above? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/why-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Animal Spirits: Sudden Wealth Syndrome Speedball capitalism What stops the hyperscalers The top 0.1% is really rich The stock mkt doesn't care about higher rates It's a high beta decade Everyone hates inflation but keeps spending $$$ & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The 10 year Treasury yield has gone from just under 4% to 5.3% this year Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 14% in 2026 Why aren't rising bond yields hurting the stock market? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/wher...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Nike is now back to 2013 price levels 81% off the highs It feels like a piece of my youth is dying with this stock price

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Agg dates back to 1976 On an inflation-adjusted basis this cycle is the first time in history bonds had negative 10 year real return This is the most brutal bond market of all-time b/c: 1. Rates were too low 2. They rose too fast 3. Inflation awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/a-br...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

End of February right before the war started: Inflation 2.4% 10 year Treasury 3.9% Mortgage Rates 6% Oil $67 Gas $3.10 Now: Inflation 3.4% 10 year Treasury 5.2% Mortgage Rates 7.6% Oil $90 Gas $4.43

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The day before the Iran war started mortgage rates were 5.99% Now they're 7.58%

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Animal Spirits: Will Higher Rates Kill the Stock Market? Rates are ripping Why isn't the stock market going down? Bond yields are attractive The wealth effect is real When will housing bottom? AI personal assistants The best TV shows & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The S&P 500 is up ~13% YTD Just 35% of stocks are outperforming the S&P 40% of stocks are down on the year One-quarter of S&P 500 companies are down 10% or worse in 2026 Most stocks are losers awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/most...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

10 year Treasury yields bottomed in March 2020 at 0.5% They're now at 5.2% During this period of rapidly rising interest rates the S&P 500 is up 18.8% annualized High rates + high inflation and we still got ~15% real annual returns Strange times awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/stra...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I know all the film geeks love Michael Clayton but this is actually George Clooney’s best serious movie performance (I might be on an island w/this take but I’m ok w/that)

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Correct I almost gave up after s2 as well S3 was fantastic

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Yeah they probably could have called River back up to the big time by now

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There's a narrative that public market investors are missing out b/c so many companies are staying private for longer Over the past 15 years the Nasdaq 100 is up 20% per year How many VC funds beat that bogey? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/can-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Housing prices rose ~50% in a few years A LOT of ppl predicted this was another housing bubble and a crash was sure to come It never happened So why didn't we get another housing bubble? Some thoughts: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/why-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The 3 best shows on TV no one ever talks about: 1. Slow Horses 2. The Agency 3. Silo

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates Which won't end the war in Iran And probably won't slow down AI hyperscaler spending So consumers get hurt by higher borrowing costs but inflation won't really go lower?

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Mortgage rates hit 7.2% today Not great

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

7% mortgage rates 4% unemployment 5% bond yields 4% cash yields $100 oil $5 gas prices 3.4% inflation Basically all-time highs in the stock market Basically all-time lows in consumer sentiment Something for everyone right now Strange times

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Animal Spirits: The Wobbly House of Cards What if there is no AI crash? The chart of the year Why buy and hold is impossible 10 year return projections Why did the Fed raise rates? $30 billion for the Lakers? The best 1980s movie & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Crazy but true stat of the day: From 1800 to 1940 the annual inflation rate was just 0.2% per year Prices were just 28% higher in a 140 year time frame Since 1940 it's 3.7% annually or >2,200% in total awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/the-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

23 million US households are worth $1 million or more Yet just 1.5% of the world's population are millionaires Consider yourself lucky if you're this rich There are more rich people than ever today but it’s still a tiny fraction of the world’s population awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/mill...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Question from a reader: I don’t totally understand bonds. Is the yield on the Agg the equivalent of a near guaranteed 5.2% annual return? Some thoughts on 5% yields and why bonds are more governed by math than the stock market: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/5-bo...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

This year: Mortgage rates have gone from 6% to 7% 10 year Treasury yields: 4% to 5%. Inflation: 2.4% to 3.4%. Oil prices from less than $60/barrel in Jan to >$100/barrel And the stock market is up double digits but valuations are falling Why? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/why-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I guess you could make the claim that hiking rates will cause ppl to worry about an economic slowdown? But that might be too galaxy brain so I don't know

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I get why ppl think the Fed should raise rates w/inflation being where it's at but how exactly is forcing higher borrowing costs on households going to help stop the war with Iran?

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I don’t know if anyone actually watches this show b/c it’s on Apple but S3 was surprisingly great The first 2 seasons were intriguing but just OK The payoff in S3 was totally worth it Really well done

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now make up ~40% of the index Every company in the top 10 has a market cap of $1 trillion or more 3 things: 1. This is a bull market phenomenon 2. Almost every other country is worse 3. The fundamentals back it up awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/its-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Homeownership rates at age 28: Baby boomers - 44% Gen X - 43% Gen Z - 38% At age 36: Baby boomers - 64% Gen X - 61% Millennials - 57% Young ppl were dealt a bad hand in housing But Gen Z will be homeowners too awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/will...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Animal Spirits: Everywhere Millionaires The bull market in wealth The next financial crisis A buying opportunity in bonds? AI is crowding out bonds & construction spending The American Dream is still alive Is college still worth the cost? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Good question about having a mid-life crisis w/your investments It's harder to sit through stock market losses w/a bigger portfolio The next stock market crash will be a lot more painful for a new group of wealthier investors w/more $$$ at stake awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/how-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Some questions: Would inflation be even worse if we weren’t in a housing recession? Are private markets the perfect place to hide fraud? Are colleges screwed? Is NVDA the anti-bubble? How important is the wealth effect to the economy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/14-q...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Animal Spirits: The Next Michael Burry The AI story that's never going away Everyone wants to call the AI crash The S&P 493 bull case Why hasn't AI destroyed jobs yet? Do dividends still matter? Will Gen Z buy a house? Youth travel sports & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

My most contrarian take right now is I’m not all that worried about a US government debt crisis Some thoughts on why the political risk is bigger than the financial risk when it comes to outsized govt debt in the US: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/my-m...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Animal Spirits: Are Free Markets Dead? Don't fight the bond market Why I don't think there's a govt debt crisis (it's a political crisis) The most hated asset class in the world How will this cycle end? The rising risk of private market fraud & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Every hedge fund manager & macro tourist wants to short bonds right now The reasons are obvious: high government debt, large deficits, inflation, etc Bonds are the most hated asset class in the world So what's the case for owning bonds? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/the-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

How often is the stock market down from all-time highs? How often should you check your portfolio? How often do you check your portfolio? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/how-...

awealthofcommonsense.com

How Often Should You Check Your Portfolio? - A Wealth of Common Sense

Ben's rules for how often to check your portfolio.

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

The past 10 calendar year returns for the S&P 500: 2017 +22% 2018 -4% 2019 +31% 2020 +18% 2021 +28% 2022 -18% 2023 +26% 2024 +25% 2025 +18% 2026 +14% (so far) Pretty good run

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