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Basil Halperin

@basilhalperin.com
3K followers 875 following 79 posts

Assistant professor of economics @ UVA basilhalperin.com

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Reposted by Basil Halperin
Sam Harsimony @harsimony.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
@basilhalperin.com has some interesting recent stuff on the macroeconomic effects of AI. Paper on explosive growth: www.nber.org/papers/w35155 Podcast on various topics: www.youtube.com/watch?v=amo1...
youtube.com
Basil Halperin on Macroeconomic Policy in an Age of Transformative AI | Macro Musings
YouTube video by Macro Musings with David Beckworth
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
24. Send encouraging emails at the end of the semester to relevant students. 25. Smile (see principle #2).
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
21. Sitting in on colleagues’ lectures for the same course is useful. 22. Teaching dialectically and showing the history of thought is useful. 23. Get student buy-in on the electronics policy.
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
17. Ensuring students get reps in is important. 18. Cold calling is useful. 19. Connecting to current events is useful. 20. Teaching centered on questions may be useful.
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
14. “See the other side”: help students understand the perspective of other students. 15. Considering extreme cases is usefully clarifying. 16. Rapid feedback is important.
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
12. Teaching facts and encouraging memorization of facts is underrated. 13. Simple, decisive empirical moments are both more memorable and plausibly more important evidence than fancy complicated evidence.
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
9. It’s okay or may even be good if learning feels painful. 10. Repetition is important. 11. Consistency is important, e.g. in notation and terminology.
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
7. Each and every theory must be presented back by empirical evidence, not passed down as wisdom of the ancients. 8. Inoculation is an important part of the job: against appealing-but-wrong ways of thinking; and against popular-but-wrong “facts”/memes.
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
4. Teaching is hard because of the curse of knowledge. 5. Teach in multiple ways. 6. Keep it simple – but that doesn’t mean easy: teach fewer things but teach them more deeply.
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026
Some teaching principles: #econsky basilhalperin.com/essays/teach... 0. Have extreme empathy. 1. Grading should be predictable. 2. Enthusiasm matters! Show that you care – channel your enjoyment! 3. Actively solicit feedback. ...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026
Bonus: thoughts on math You can also subscribe here 🤠 basilhalperin.substack.com/p/some-princ...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026
...and the principles
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026
Some excerpts, starting with goals...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026
New post: Some principles for teaching basilhalperin.com/essays/teach...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 28/03/2025
For more, check out the website: stripe.events/fellowship We invite graduate students and early-career researchers who are interested in studying the economics of AI to apply – ***regardless of prior experience working on the topic*** #econsky
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 28/03/2025
I very much wish to thank Patrick Collison, Emily Glassberg Sands, and the team at Stripe for their generous support of this initiative – I am honored to be a part of it
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 28/03/2025
We welcome researchers interested in any aspect of the economics of AI, broadly defined. We are particularly interested in research that: 1. is focused on the economics of *transformative* AI 2. is forward-looking 3. is expected to be of durable importance, and 4. moves fast :)
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 28/03/2025
What you’ll get: – $10k, and you should ask for more if you have a reason – a conference in SF in a few months with senior economists and AI developers – opportunity to access Stripe data and/or work with its customers – a community of fellow nerds
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 28/03/2025
Introducing the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship: The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –
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Reposted by Basil Halperin
Andrey Fradkin @andreyfradkin.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
In the latest episode of our podcast, Justified Posteriors, we discuss whether interest rates should rise in anticipation of AGI (as predicted by @basilhalperin.com). Our priors are quite different! Do check it out. empiricrafting.substack.com/p/if-the-rob...
empiricrafting.substack.com
If the Robots Are Coming, Why Aren't Interest Rates Higher?
Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 26/02/2025
(thanks for these great posts!)
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
Anyway Tom’s post is very poetic and deeply resonant personally with my own experience pushing Greek letters around, check it out
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
“When I’m trying to concentrate on something my weasel thinks of something I could order on Amazon.” During the worst periods of modeling ( = early in a project) I have to block everything – not just the news or the blogs or the obvious stuff, but Amazon, Instacart, Wikipedia...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
“On a good day it’s like swimming in cold water. I don’t want to get in but once I’m in I don’t want to get out.”
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
“If it’s writing or programming I can just bring up a window and type away. If it’s deriving things then my mind is constantly drifting” [more I would say about this^ offline]
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
Tom relatedly talks about a jungle metaphor: “When you’re programming you get incremental feedback: you can see the mountain peak and you’re slowly getting closer to it. With proofs you’re going through the jungle and you don’t know if you’re getting closer or farther away...”
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
You might be trying to explore an infinite, pitch black space of zero value… …or the light switch might be 1 foot in front of your face. It’s so hard to tell! The cold uncaring uncertainty is what drives you [rather, me] mad
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
- …or maybe you even find a wall, but you feel and feel over the wall, you haven't found a light switch yet, you don't know if you should keep searching here or go try to find another wall - …or there may be no walls, no light switches in ANY direction!
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
- but the nearest wall might not be in that direction - …or there might not be any wall in that direction, you may be stumbling into nothingness, forever
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
Doing theory research is like: - being in a dark room trying to find a light switch - sticking out your hand, hoping to bump into a wall first, to then grope towards a light switch - and not knowing which direction to walk to find the nearest wall – randomly picking a direction…
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
Funnily enough, the metaphor I’ve always felt for the process of doing theory is also about a dark room, but somewhat different:
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025
The best piece I've read on “what it feels like from the inside” to do theory research: “Like going through a room in the dark grasping for a door handle.”
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 06/01/2025
Trump tariff proposal reportedly reduced to only cover “critical” security imports — Leopold Aschenbrenner has an old, interesting alternative to these tariffs: Minimal *quotas* for critical goods — idea being Weitzman/Hayek meets geoeconomics: www.forourposterity.com/the-economic...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 05/01/2025
won't someone think of the predoc wages 😞
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 05/01/2025
Tbf econ has gone pretty far in this direction already
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 05/01/2025
I like the optimism but — meetings/emails/grants, famously the parts of the job that profs love the most!
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 05/01/2025
Soo no discussion of this Tyler post on “The future of the scientist in a world with advanced AI” because it’s too depressing or? “The humans will gather the data” 😬
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/01/2025
If only there had been an untweeted control session 😩
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 02/01/2025
🤖 bsky.app/profile/basi...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 02/01/2025
need an RCT to know whether tweeting about an AEA session actually increases attendance: ***Policy implications of transformative AI*** -- for those interested in AI, policy, or their intersection... tomorrow at 2:30!
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 02/01/2025
from Daniel, Klos, and Rottke (2024) ARFE kentdaniel.net/papers/unpub...
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 02/01/2025
Why has the cost of shorting stocks gone up? Daytrader effect?
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 01/01/2025
7. Collect credible estimates of VSL over time -- how has it evolved over time & with GDP growth? And/or update Costa and Kahn (2004):
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Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 21/12/2024
In the limit… jobs that can’t be automated accrue all the value: 1. Physical tasks: RCTs, archival work? 2. Social tasks: lab managers? Being JPAL or @johnlist.bsky.social comes out looking pretty good?
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Reposted by Basil Halperin
Zach Mazlish @zmazlish.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
3) Arguably, price and wage stickiness is primarily due to fixed re-optimization costs. @basilhalperin.com shows us that if price rigidities are due to fixed costs, something like NGDP targeting is optimal monetary policy (rather than inflation targeting) basilhalperin.com/papers/halpe...
basilhalperin.com
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Reposted by Basil Halperin
Eric Olav Chen @eochen.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
New working paper! We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall. A short thread on the key highlights.
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Reposted by Basil Halperin
David Beckworth @davidbeckworth.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
.@zmazlish.bsky.social joins the show to discuss how, contrary to some narratives, real earnings growth has been relatively weak over past few years when properly measured and, therefore, the public's discontent was grounded in more than just vibes. Transcript here: www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...
mercatus.org
Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI
Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some re
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