iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Basil Halperin

Sam Harsimony @harsimony.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

@basilhalperin.com has some interesting recent stuff on the macroeconomic effects of AI. Paper on explosive growth: www.nber.org/papers/w35155 Podcast on various topics: www.youtube.com/watch?v=amo1...

youtube.com

Basil Halperin on Macroeconomic Policy in an Age of Transformative AI | Macro Musings

YouTube video by Macro Musings with David Beckworth

031

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 08/02/2026

Some teaching principles: #econsky basilhalperin.com/essays/teach... 0. Have extreme empathy. 1. Grading should be predictable. 2. Enthusiasm matters! Show that you care – channel your enjoyment! 3. Actively solicit feedback. ...

130

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/02/2026

New post: Some principles for teaching basilhalperin.com/essays/teach...

130

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 28/03/2025

Introducing the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship: The economics of AI remains surprisingly understudied. The fellowship aims to help fill that gap, by supporting grad students and early-career researchers with $, data, a conference, and community –

2175

Reposted by Basil Halperin

Andrey Fradkin @andreyfradkin.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

In the latest episode of our podcast, Justified Posteriors, we discuss whether interest rates should rise in anticipation of AGI (as predicted by @basilhalperin.com). Our priors are quite different! Do check it out. empiricrafting.substack.com/p/if-the-rob...

empiricrafting.substack.com

If the Robots Are Coming, Why Aren't Interest Rates Higher?

Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates

031

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 17/02/2025

The best piece I've read on “what it feels like from the inside” to do theory research: “Like going through a room in the dark grasping for a door handle.”

140

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 06/01/2025

Trump tariff proposal reportedly reduced to only cover “critical” security imports — Leopold Aschenbrenner has an old, interesting alternative to these tariffs: Minimal *quotas* for critical goods — idea being Weitzman/Hayek meets geoeconomics: www.forourposterity.com/the-economic...

150

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 05/01/2025

Soo no discussion of this Tyler post on “The future of the scientist in a world with advanced AI” because it’s too depressing or? “The humans will gather the data” 😬

4112

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 02/01/2025

need an RCT to know whether tweeting about an AEA session actually increases attendance: ***Policy implications of transformative AI*** -- for those interested in AI, policy, or their intersection... tomorrow at 2:30!

041

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 02/01/2025

Why has the cost of shorting stocks gone up? Daytrader effect?

100

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 21/12/2024

In the limit… jobs that can’t be automated accrue all the value: 1. Physical tasks: RCTs, archival work? 2. Social tasks: lab managers? Being JPAL or @johnlist.bsky.social comes out looking pretty good?

040

Reposted by Basil Halperin

Zach Mazlish @zmazlish.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

3) Arguably, price and wage stickiness is primarily due to fixed re-optimization costs. @basilhalperin.com shows us that if price rigidities are due to fixed costs, something like NGDP targeting is optimal monetary policy (rather than inflation targeting) basilhalperin.com/papers/halpe...

basilhalperin.com

151

Reposted by Basil Halperin

Eric Olav Chen @eochen.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

New working paper! We develop an approach for safely delegating to strategically aware and potentially misaligned AI systems. The theoretical tool we use is sequential information design with imperfect recall. A short thread on the key highlights.

1157

Reposted by Basil Halperin

David Beckworth @davidbeckworth.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

.@zmazlish.bsky.social joins the show to discuss how, contrary to some narratives, real earnings growth has been relatively weak over past few years when properly measured and, therefore, the public's discontent was grounded in more than just vibes. Transcript here: www.mercatus.org/macro-musing...

mercatus.org

Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI

Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some re

052

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 04/12/2024

1. How correlated are high-frequency FFR shocks across CME vs. Kalshi vs. Polymarket 2. Event long-short index on Taiwan invasion risk ("what does the market think about Taiwan invasion risk"), I would be sorely tempted to coauthor on this one

230

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 18/11/2024

Tentative takeaways for macro theory, based on Zach's empirics showing wage growth has been uniformly weak in the recent episode: 1. Basic sticky wage theory looks extremely good?

3165

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 12/11/2024

This from @zmazlish.bsky.social is THE analysis of wages/income under Biden-Powell jzmazlish.substack.com/p/yes-inflat... TLDR: growth has been... historically weak (this is not normative -- just the numbers)

2279

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 12/11/2024

surveying 14th century peasants on 'the impacts of higher wages' number one answer: mass death, boils

161

Basil Halperin @basilhalperin.com · 09/11/2024

"average weighted tariff >6% by Q4 2024"... context: currently 2.5% kalshi.com/markets/kxla...

3222