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Ballot Box Scotland

@ballotbox.scot
9.8K followers 4 following 2.9K posts

Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights. Donate; liberapay.com/ballotboxscot

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 02/10/2026
Can't report by-election results from holiday but can I interest you in Mount Doom?
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/10/2026
Two by-elections today: Forth and Endrick is a rural ward that was nonetheless hard fought between SNP and Conservatives in 2022, and with no realistic chance of anyone else winning, is hard to call between those two. NOTE: This is an auto-post, I am on holiday very much not in Scotland still!
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Forth and Endrick (Stirling) 1st of October 2026
A potentially close contest between the Conservatives and SNP for a by-election may be more use for predicting May’s results: might Labour lose their councillor to Reform or the Greens?
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/10/2026
Two by-elections today: Wick and Caithness is going to be a Highland classic, in that it's either the Lib Dems or an Independent that will win it, but it's impossible to predict how well the latter will do. NOTE: This is an auto-post, I am on holiday very much not in Scotland still!
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Wick and East Caithness (Highland) 1st of October 2026
All by-elections are unique, sure, but there’s a recent pattern in much of the Highlands: if you’re betting on a party, go for the Lib Dems, but never write off an Independent.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/10/2026
You're allowed to be wrong
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 24/09/2026
Note: I am on holiday from now until the 19th of October! I will not be able to report on the results of the three by-elections due whilst I'm away, or on any polling that comes out in that time. If things could otherwise be as quiet and boring a possible, I'd take that as a personal favour.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 22/09/2026
New article: Local Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disaster There is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad.
ballotbox.scot
Local Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disaster
There is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 22/09/2026
The regular review of constituencies is a thing that already happens - both 2024 and 2026 used new sets - and we should not be determining who does your bins on an 8-12 year review cycle, that's not good for democracy, it's confusing and exhausting for voters.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 22/09/2026
You'd do something like give their apportionment to the top performers; i.e. if Independents were due 3 spots regionally, it'd be the 3 who won the most votes
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scot/lite
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
If they have any sense whatsoever - and it does not necessarily seem they do - it'd have to come into effect 2032, not least as Boundaries Scotland would need to develop electoral boundaries (unless they were doing at large list PR in which case, again, not keen on how we got there but it's better)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
Yes - there is a lot of scope to end up with a much better system even with that being the case, but it adds to the concern. Also unless they reform council tax this will do very little to fix local government finances and thus services. "No longer a Chief Exec of West Dun" is petty cash.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
No option - massive regional councils, tiny local councils, indirect apportionment of one tier from members of the other - is democratically optimal (tiny local councils especially would be actively *anti*-democratic, but one of them is where we'll have to end up. Messy and, frankly, stupid.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
This by the way is why it is moronic in the extreme for this to be starting from a position of "we must cut costs" and thus an absolute refusal to institute two tiers independent of one another, rather than starting from "how we do we improve local democracy" and then accepting that entails £££
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
At first glance sure but - barring electoral reform that allows us to align to regional councils and do away with FPTP constituencies - then you need to have equally sized councils and you also need to redraw not just constituency but also council boundaries every 10-15 years!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
There is possibly a middle ground though: apportion regional council seats proportionally amongst local councillors; e.g. if there are 40 seats at region level, a party has 10% of local councillors, it gets 4 regional seats. Not ideal imo but tolerable.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
We can't have 3-4 ward councillors doing aspects of governance currently done by a whole council, that's simply too few and has very limited scope for fair, democratic representation, but if we had 9+ (per my NM Lite proposals) the regional councils are far, far too big.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
The suggested scope of this is actually pretty good - scale of regions fits my New Municipalism Lite model, "community" level the OG version - but I am very concerned by the idea of double-jobbing the same people as regional and local councillors www.gov.scot/publications...
gov.scot
Public sector reform: proposal
Scottish Government proposal for reform of local governance
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 19/09/2026
Scottish Labour leadership election result: Michael Marra (North East Scotland): 4266 (63.2%) Joe Fagan (South Scotland): 2485 (36.8%)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
With just weeks to go before the seat could just lie vacant until May's elections, we're unfortunately still racking up the by-elections following the death of sitting councillors. In Dumfries and Galloway, Annandale East and Eskdale Labour councillor, Archie Dryburgh, has sadly just passed.
dumfriesandgalloway.gov.uk
Council Pays Tribute to Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE | Dumfries and Galloway Council
Dumfries and Galloway Council is deeply saddened by the death of Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE, a much-respected colleague who devoted many years of his life to public service and to the communities ...
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
By-Election Result: Avondale and Stonehouse A relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Result: Avondale and Stonehouse
A relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) by-election, most popular second preference by party: SNP <-> Green Labour <-> Lib Dem Reform -> Conservative Conservative -> Lib Dem Independent -> Lib Dem Your Party -> Green Alliance for Democracy and Freedom -> Reform/Conservative tie
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms:

SNP to Green 37.2
Labour to Lib Dem 23.0
Reform to Conservative 30.1
Conservative to Lib Dem 19.6
Lib Dem to Labour 30.0
Green to SNP 49.5
Independent to Lib Dem 18.7
Your Party to Green 24.4
ADF to Reform and Conservative 33.3

Note that a plurality of voters at 32.2 for Labour, 45.3 for Reform, 34.4 for the Conservatives, 24.3 for Independent and 28.9 for Your Party opted not to mark a second preference at all.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party: SNP, Independent: Chapelton Labour, Reform: Stonehouse Conservative, Your Party: Drumclog / Glassford Lib Dem: Western Strathaven Green: Eastern and Southern Strathaven
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was SNP 32.7, Labour 27.3, Reform 28.7, Conservative 13.7, Lib Dem 15.8, Green 11.1, Independent 5.4, Your Party 2.5Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. Reform led in the district covering Stonehouse, SNP led in every other district including Strathaven, Drumclog, Chapelton and Glassford
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) by-election transfers, votes at final head-to-head stage (vs same party matchup in 2022): SNP: 1349 (36.3%, +4.4) Labour: 1198 (32.3%, -2.6) Didn't Transfer: 1165 (31.4%, -1.8)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
Avondale and Stonehouse (S. Lan) BE, 1st prefs (vs 2022): SNP: 1025 (27.6%, -0.8) LAB: 743 (20%, +0.2) RUK: 727 (19.6%, new) CON: 393 (10.6%, -10) LD: 357 (9.6%, new) GRN: 303 (8.2%, +1.8) IND: 107 (2.9%, new) Your: 45 (1.2%, new) ADF: 12 (0.3%, new) (Non-returns 24.8%) SNP elected stage 9.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
So I logged onto Twitter and there was in fact nothing there.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
Allan@ballotbox.scot !
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
I'm really sorry to be a little mean again, but it's still not actually reporting the result of a by-election to tell us only one candidate's votes! If you can't fit all the votes in one post, please consider taking a photo of the printout that has them all on it, thank you!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/09/2026
By-election today for South Lanarkshire's Avondale and Stonehouse; tossup between the SNP and Labour in my view. Also features a special guest star candidate in one of the people who beat me in 2017, without which, Ballot Box Scotland would never have come to be!
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026
An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/09/2026
SNP clearly in the running, and so could be Cameron or A N Other Independent. I'd also throw the Lib Dems into the mix; they historically did well in Argyll, and they doubled their list vote in the Holyrood seat in May, perhaps positioning themselves as the obvious anti-SNP party option locally.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/09/2026
Excusing both from the 2022 count, and the SNP beat a third Independent Andy Cameron by about 21%; their closest party competitors were the Conservatives, who they'd beat by 26.5% after transfers. Big margins, but by-elections in rural Scotland can be very different beasts.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, Ind Philand 35.9, SNP 31.1, Conservative 11.6, Labour 4.9, Ind MacMillan 4.7, Ind Cameron 4.4, Lib Dem 3.3, Independence for Scotland Party 2.4, Ind Adepetun 1.7Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, SNP 45.4, Ind Cameron 24.6, Didn't Transfer 30.0Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. Independent Philand led in most districts including Lochgilphead, Ardrishaig, Inverary, Furnace and Taynish. SNP led in districts covering Crinan, Kilmartin and Craobh Haven.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/09/2026
By-election set for the 29th of October. I'm back for that one! Philand was easily the most popular candidate (beats SNP by 15% in a head-to-head), so this one's a tough call, not least as lots of his votes would have transferred to Donnie MacMillan, who lost in 2022 and also died earlier this year.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 13/09/2026
I imagine if you suggested we could just let polling station staff count the votes there'd be a national meltdown, same as the idea that it's maybe okay if we don't individually declare MP results on stage in a leisure centre hall at 5.27am
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 13/09/2026
It's really easy to think this stuff doesn't matter but it's amazing for getting a proper sense of what happened on the day. For example, this Kiruna voting district has just seen the Greens treble their vote: why? Obviously as a foreigner, I have no idea, but there'll be a story to tell locally!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 13/09/2026
Once again asking why, in the year 2026, Scotland had an election for which every result was publicly "oooh, mystery box! secret! can't tell you what happened except at the overall constituency level!" and then most of our neighbours are just like "hello here's a livemap" www.svt.se/datajournali...
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 12/09/2026
Helensburgh gets its own district! Even better than being so aghast at being lumped with us povvos in what became West Dun that it decided being in the same council as Oban was sensible!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 12/09/2026
Aim for 30k minimum, mostly by merging core NM project proposals into larger where necessary.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 12/09/2026
If you agree with the general shape of this vision, make sure you let councillors and MSPs know: when (... if?) the Scottish Government launches a consultation, respond and reference the report! (If you don't like it that's fine but you don't need to be rude to me like folk were last time xoxo)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 12/09/2026
This is, I think, a more realistic model than the main project, something even closer to Denmark's system of governance (remember: the largest councils by population on the mainland!). 83 Districts in 8 Regions, plus the 3 Islands, and a one-third cut to the proposed number of elected councillors.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 12/09/2026
Here it is: the Lite version of my New Municipalism project. There's an opportunity for local government reform that nobody expected, but it needs to be genuinely local and democratic. Informal and thus unaccountable regionalisation and mergers won't cut it. newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scot/lite
newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scot
NM Lite – New Municipalism Scotland
When I’ve published successive versions of New Municipalism, it’s always been with the understanding that I was presenting a somewhat utopian vision with little prospect of implementation. Wholesale…
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 11/09/2026
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 11/09/2026
You too can furnish whichever of these rooms (and more!) you want with a lovely little map here: www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/1835... (I won't actually make much money from these, but I know a few MSPs bought my 2021 version for their office, so I figured I might as well make a 2026 one!)
redbubble.com
2026 Scottish Parliament Results Map by BallotBoxScot | Redbubble
This poster shows the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election, and would be the ideal addition to a constituency office, classroom, living room, or indeed any room inhabited by political nerd...
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 11/09/2026
Isn't that lovely, and so informative, wow, truly an Adequately Designed For Its Purpose map of the 2026 Holyrood election results, perfect for an MSP office, for a talking point in the living room, or even to really get chat going in the barber shop!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 09/09/2026
The most important part of any project is picking nice colours (I mean I picked these two years ago for the previous New Municipalism release, but I'm enjoying them again as I beaver away on my opportunity-seizing NM Lite report)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/09/2026
As ever, I emphasise that beyond democratic systems and LGBT rights, I try to avoid actual policy discussions as BBS, but the Council Tax situation really is unsustainably bizarre, and there's a great paper by Tax Justice Scotland that's worth a read: taxjustice.scot/wp-content/u...
taxjustice.scot
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/09/2026
Love to get home from a long day of doing policy work in the office to, err, do different policy work at home... aiming to write this whole thing up by the end of the weekend, for those interested - and if you are interested, raise it with your MSPs, in the context of Public Service Reform activity!
Summary
•	Local government in Scotland is hugely oversized compared to the European average. Denmark, with a comparable population in half the area, has 98 local councils.
•	Yet at the same time, existing local councils are too small for meaningful strategic service design and delivery. Returning to the Danish example, it also has 4 regional councils.
•	Local government is an essential component of a healthy democracy. In designing local government structures, the core considerations should be how best to represent local communities and where governing powers best lie. Designing primarily to achieve administrative cost savings will inevitably lead to poor outcomes.
•	There is an opportunity arising from the 2026 Programme for Government to undertake meaningful reform, but the signals from the Scottish Government are concerningly hostile to genuine local governance and democratic oversight.
•	No reform to the structure of local government, including the proposals in this paper, can be successful without accompanying fundamental reform to an outdated, unfair, and thoroughly unfit for purpose system of local taxation.
•	Scotland should return to the general model of the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973, but balanced towards slightly more local district councils, and taking into account demographic and technological changes in the decades since.
•	In designing such a system, insofar as is possible and practical, consideration should be given to how to strengthen existing and historic local identities and connections.
•	The example proposals set out in this paper consist of:
o	85 District Councils, which would deal with the most local issues such as leisure, parks, refuse collection, and some aspects of housing.
o	8 Regional Councils covering those 85 Districts, which would deal with more strategic issues such as health, social care, education and transport.
o	3 Single Authority Councils, covering Scotland’s highly distinctive Islands communities, which would exercise the functions of both District and Regional councils.
•	Regardless of legal administrative boundaries, all local government bodies should be allowed and enabled to jointly develop and deliver services where they wish, allowing cost savings to arise from back-office functions without removing democratic oversight.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/09/2026
By-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026 The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026
The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/09/2026
The Holyrood 6 plus two independents for the Midstocket and Rosemount by-election, including regular Aberdeen candidate Simon McLean who I am only realising in hindsight was perhaps surprisingly absent in George Street and Harbour - loves an Aberdeen by-election this lad.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Green Lauren Bird, SNP Jeff Diack, Conservative Freddie John, Independent Simon McLean, Reform UK John McLeod, Independent Kusum Singal, Lib Dem Sandy Stephen, Labour Willie Young

Vacating is SNP, 2022 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 1.9%. Cause is the death of Bill Cormie (SNP). By-election is on the 8th of October. Prediction is SNP - Labour tossup.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/09/2026
Midstocket and Rosemount was just 1.9% between the SNP and Labour after transfers in 2022; I don't see any other party being a viable winner. With both parties struggling, by-election dynamics might favour Labour, but that requires them to make the top 2. If not, SNP may yet win. So, a tossup.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 37.8, Conservative 24.5, Labour 21.5, Green 9.3, Lib Dem 7.0Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, SNP 43.3, Labour 41.5, Didn't Transfer 15.2Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. Conservatives led in district covering western Midstocket. SNP led in every other district, including Rosemount, Gilcomston and AShgrove.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026
Whup, had missed the date for this one - it's due up on the 8th of October. I will still be on holiday, so I won't be able to report on results when they come in!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026
I'm sure that's a lovely thing to imagine applies universally, but was not my experience on a community council, which was one of the most pointless, frustrating experiences of my life. What good is done by the relatively few effective and engaged CC's could be done without the formal CC structure.
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