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John Kelly

@bahua.com
348 followers 152 following 738 posts

Political naysayer, chronic optimist, NATO loyalist, linux user, dad, husband, spelling champion

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John Kelly @bahua.com · 26/08/2026
Let's say for argument's sake that AI is right 85% of the time. When a visionary tech oligarch is asked about the other 15%, he says more training is needed, which requires colossal new datacenters that do immeasurable damage. That'll likely get us to 88%, but even the full 15% isn't worth it to me.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 24/08/2026
Donald Trump doesn't know how war works, other than what he's seen in movies. He took office, promptly fired everyone in the DoD who knew what they were doing, and started simply bombarding Iran. No plan. Just the assumption they would surrender. Now he's furious and at a loss that they haven't.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 06/02/2026
Trump tried to distract us from the fact that he's a violent pedophile with the fact that he's a bigoted old fuck. That'll go great for him.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 09/11/2025
"MAGA is in its death throes. They’re thrashing and panicking and breaking things in a desperate attempt to divert your attention, because this is it for them." #politics
substack.psephology.org
Political Gravity Asserts Itself
Any short term Republican achievements for the foreseeable future will come at the cost of the Party's longterm viability.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 04/11/2025
As I'll be out tonight among other dads, I put the closing times for tonight's biggest elections into my phone calendar. All times Mountain.
A mobile phone calendar widget showing the poll closing times(MST) for the elections on Nov 4 2025
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 23/10/2025
It looks like the world is on fire, but it isn't. Here's a reason to be optimistic. Upcoming lawsuits by the Election Truth Alliance and SMART Legislation will show that 2024 was manipulated to such a degree that even with widespread suppression, the GOP wasn't even close to winning.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 23/10/2025
It looks like the world is on fire, but it isn't. Here's a reason to be optimistic. After Trump's (apparently soon) death, the whole authoritarian regime falls apart. Nobody fears JD Vance, or anyone else in Trump's orbit. The GOP belongs to Trump, and will collapse without him.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 23/10/2025
It looks like the world is on fire, but it isn't. Here's a reason to be optimistic. Putin is going to lose his war, and his worldwide power.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 10/10/2025
Listening to rap causes autism. #RFKonAutism
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 03/10/2025
Trump has instructed his party to pass the House's CR without Democratic votes. That means he expected them to carve out a filibuster exception with 51 votes. There are 53 R Senators. Only 48 of them showed up to vote on the CR. Claiming the Ds own this shutdown is a distraction from R disunity.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 30/09/2025
Trump just gave every flag officer in the US notice that he intends to command them to start killing Americans.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 29/09/2025
Trump and Hegseth are calling every flag officer in the country to Quantico tomorrow, claiming it's to give them an inspiring speech, which is almost certainly untrue. It's far more likely that it's their intention to deploy a top-down, Russian-style command structure, with Trump, 79, leading.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 29/09/2025
I'm pretty sure anybody who opposes Trump within the GOP intends to succeed or supplant him. I think they also naively believe they have the power and knowledge to steer the ship after it hits the iceberg.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 15/09/2025
@teamcherry.bsky.social Please, please! Don't change a thing. Silksong is an unmitigated masterpiece. Please don't dumb it down!
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 10/09/2025
Trump says Kirk is dead, but nobody else does. Everyone else saying he's dead is citing only Trump's bleat. I'd like to hear from someone in the same state as Kirk.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 04/09/2025
Holy balls, Silksong is amazing! The fact that I was able to get it this morning before steam burned down is the blessing of the week for me.
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God @thegodshow.com · 31/08/2025
The entire fascist plot relies on us being terrified and sad. This is why they’re constantly trying to scare everyone with theatrics. They want you to see him as unstoppable and not as a 79-year-old with severe health problems who will die soon.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 31/07/2025
This is the barrel down which the TX GOP is looking. They think they can avert this planecrash by redrawing districts, but I don't think they can squeeze anymore juice out of this rapidly progressivizing state.
Spreadsheet showing likely outcome of midterms on TX House delegation, if current map remains in place.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 20/07/2025
The best plan the GOP has to maintain power is to redraw the districts in a state that's moving to the left faster than any other. #texas #gerrymander
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 07/06/2025
Happy #pride from Denver!
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 27/05/2025
"I DEMAND MY ANTI-TRANS RIDER BE ATTACHED TO THE LUNCH MENU AT DENNY'S." - Texas Republicans
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 23/05/2025
I wonder if any Republicans in Congress, in their lives before elected office, were roused to stirring patriotism by the thought that maybe they might someday be able to starve the poor to put some extra pennies in the pockets of America's highest earners.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 13/05/2025
Setting aside the moral, legal, and ethical problems that go with accepting a gift of $400M from Qatar, there's still no way to ensure that it isn't just a means to surveil the President's private conversations, or for Qatar to be the unscrupulous dealer of that information to the highest bidder.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 12/05/2025
It's popular in right-leaning circles to refer to leftists as "pro-Hamas," for opposing Netanyahu's genocide in Gaza. Trump is angry that anyone thinks there's anything wrong with the Emir of Qatar, one of Hamas' biggest patrons, offering him a colossal bribe. Who's "pro-Hamas," again?
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 07/05/2025
With Republican majorities in the Senate and the House, and with a 6-3 conservative majority in the Supreme Court, Donald Trump has accomplished what none thought possible: he's a lame duck after 100 days.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 05/05/2025
No idea why people are phrasing the superlative nature of Trump's polling as, "an eighty year low." While that's accurate, "an all-time low," would be better, as no President in the eighty year history of presidential polling has ever been as disliked by as many people as Donald Trump.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 01/05/2025
It's ironic that most atheists show more empathy than most Republican elected officials who identify themselves as Christians, who are explicitly called to practice empathy by the teachings of the martyred man they claim to follow.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 15/04/2025
Kim Reynolds announced she will not seek a third term, citing nonsense reasons. The real reason is because the next Governor of Iowa will be a Democrat, and Reynolds would rather not be the person to lose to that Democrat. #iowapolitics
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Psephology Retriever @psephology.org · 15/04/2025
substack.psephology.org
The Will to Nuke the Government
Senate Republicans are looking at a bill that will prohibit millions of votes to prevent a dozen bad ones. Do they have the political currency to pass it? Or even consider it?
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 14/04/2025
@psephology.org test post
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 13/04/2025
I just learned how all these clever people are putting their own domains in their bluesky addresses, so I did it too. I have an idea for psephology dot org. Stay tuned for that.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 05/04/2025
When Russia is defeated, the Kremlin will fall. That will be the end of Russian influence operations, which means we will get a much better idea of just how few Americans actually support Trump. I have a strong suspicion the real number is very low. Under 20%.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 02/04/2025
After yesterday's full-throated rebuke of Trump's GOP, both in Wisconsin and Florida, expect to see more Republicans speaking their minds, even if it's against Trump, because they know they have no chance at reelection if they align with him.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 28/03/2025
It's by the sinew of Trump's backfat that the GOP is holding together. If a single scaly tendril snaps, the whole Party could collapse.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 12/03/2025
Since we know now that Trump is a prostitute for Elon Musk, why is it so difficult to believe he's a prostitute for Putin?
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 04/03/2025
No amount of debunking will dissuade Musk, because the DOGE's value to him is not monetary. Its value to him is as a tool to execute his eugenic outlook. Depriving people whose lives he doesn't value(to their deaths) is his most basic idea of efficiency.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 03/03/2025
Ukraine is striking military, industrial, and logistical targets inside Russia with impunity, and Putin can't stop it. Ukraine continues to take land in Kursk, and Putin can't stop it. That's why he wants a ceasefire. Because without one, he'll lose more than the war.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 24/02/2025
Ukraine is kicking Russia's ass. Russia's only salvation is aid from the US, and even though Trump is beholden to Putin, his voters will never forgive him for that. Stopping aid to Ukraine is one thing, but giving aid to Russia to conquer Ukraine is a bridge too far.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 19/02/2025
I opposed a second DJT term for fear of, among other things, Project 2025. We were told we were being hysterical, that Trump had no such agenda. Well now it's happening, and the people who told me to calm down are fine with it. Does that kind of dismissal followed by acceptance have a name?
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 13/02/2025
Russia cannot continue fighting indefinitely, and NATO, even without US support, can keep Ukraine supplied enough to outlast Russia. So what happens in the US when Trump starts actively aiding Russia?
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 11/02/2025
You just finished writing up the legislation to rename Greenland, "Red, White, and Blue Land" when you notice that your helmets have skulls on them. #doge #mitchellandwebb #gop
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 31/01/2025
Produce from Mexico, and fossil fuels and raw materials from Canada are about to carry untenable cost. Restaurants will close, and hundreds of thousands of Americans will lose their jobs, with little hope of finding a new job. Economic strife on a scale we haven't seen in our lives will be the norm.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 26/01/2025
The time to reach across the aisle is over. It ended when you gave Trump the benefit of the doubt, even after he said OUT LOUD that he cheated. He's not here to govern. He's here to dismantle, and direct violence in the rubble. There is no aisle anymore. There's just terrorists and the rest of us.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 22/01/2025
What frightens me most is that I see only two paths now. Fascism on an indefinite timeline, or violent revolution that may or may not succeed. And if it doesn't, the grip of fascism tightens.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 17/01/2025
Maybe it's just denial, but I don't think so. I still think that all these confirmation hearings and the passage of radical legislation are the last vestiges of a political alignment that's about to get the rug pulled from under them. I don't think Trump will be inaugurated.
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Benjamin Dreyer @bcdreyer.social · 13/01/2025
He is an astonishingly, alarmingly fluent liar. He will say *anything.*
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 07/01/2025
Since the election, experts have waxed poetic on what the D Party should have done to appeal to more voters, completely ignoring the fact that if Trump cheated, none of that matters. We could check if he cheated, like he said he would, but nobody will. Benefit of the doubt forever.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 06/01/2025
With fingers in ears and eyes closed, R majorities would have shot down any objections today. Enforcement of the 14th Amendment doesn't require a joint session. If there is a plan to stop the R candidate, today was not the time to do it.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 03/01/2025
Mike Johnson is not going to lose the gavel, because he doesn't have it. He is not the Speaker. He stopped being the Speaker when the term of the 118th Congress ended. Nobody is the Speaker.
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John Kelly @bahua.com · 26/12/2024
What reason would Trump have to want control of Greenland, other than to create a hole in the GIUK line, and allow free, unmonitored passage into the central Atlantic by Russian naval assets?
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