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Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 42m

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-06T01:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5426 Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0155 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 06 0600 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5427
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 05 2111 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5426
Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0155 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 06 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 06-Oct 08 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 06-Oct 08 2026

Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08
00-03UT 4.00 2.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.67 2.67 2.33
06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.33 2.00 1.00
12-15UT 2.00 1.67 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.67 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2026

Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 05 2026 1848 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2026

Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts through 08 Oct.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

001

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 18h

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-05T07:04:08Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0155 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 05 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Persistence Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5426
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 05 0156 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0155 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Oct 05 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Persistence
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 05-Oct 07 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 05-Oct 07 2026

Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct 07
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.33
03-06UT 4.00 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.33 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.67 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected early on 05 Oct
due to influence from a positive polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2026

Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct 07
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2026

Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct 07
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 18h

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-05T07:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0350 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 05 1500 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2269
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 05 0350 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0350 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Oct 05 1500 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 18h

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-05T07:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 05 0352 UTC Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2054
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 05 0352 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 05 0352 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 05/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-05T01:04:08Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 2057 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 726
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 2058 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 2057 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

031

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 05/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-05T01:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 2357 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2053
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 2357 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 2357 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

001

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T19:04:16Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 1402 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2051
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 1403 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 1402 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06
00-03UT 3.00 3.33 3.33
03-06UT 3.33 4.33 3.67
06-09UT 4.33 3.33 3.00
09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 4.00 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 3.67 1.67 2.00
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 3.00 1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 04 Oct due to
influence from a positive polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

021

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T19:04:13Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 1839 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2052
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 1840 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 1839 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

030

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T19:04:09Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 1847 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 04 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 671
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 1847 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 1847 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Oct 04 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T19:04:05Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2267 Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 1110 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 05 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Extended with issuance of G2 warning. Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2268
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 1850 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2267
Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 1110 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 05 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Extended with issuance of G2 warning.

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T19:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5424 Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 0615 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 05 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence extended past Kp5 warning. Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5425
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 1901 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5424
Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 0615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 05 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
extended past Kp5 warning.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T13:04:08Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 0757 UTC Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2689
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 0801 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 0757 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

010

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T13:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 1110 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 04 2100 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2267
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 1107 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 1110 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Oct 04 2100 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T13:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 1122 UTC Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2050
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 1123 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Oct 04 1122 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 04/10/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-10-04T07:04:02Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 0615 UTC Valid To: 2026 Oct 04 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5424
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 04 0613 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Oct 04 0615 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Oct 04 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 04 0520 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06
00-03UT 3.00 3.67 3.33
03-06UT 3.00 3.67 3.67
06-09UT 3.00 3.33 3.00
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 4.00 3.00 2.00
18-21UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 2.33 1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 04 Oct due to the
influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

001

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 27/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-27T01:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 27 0033 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 27 1200 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5423
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 27 0035 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 27 0033 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 27 1200 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2026

Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
06-09UT 2.67 1.67 1.33
09-12UT 2.67 1.67 1.00
12-15UT 2.00 1.67 1.00
15-18UT 1.67 0.67 1.33
18-21UT 1.67 0.67 1.67
21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2026

Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2026

Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29
R1-R2 10% 10% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 29 Sep.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 27/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-27T01:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 27 0040 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2688
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 27 0040 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 27 0040 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 26/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-26T01:04:06Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 25 2154 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 26 1200 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5422
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 25 2155 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 25 2154 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 26 1200 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 26-Sep 28 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 26-Sep 28 2026

Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep 28
00-03UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.67 3.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.67 2.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 1.67
15-18UT 1.67 1.67 0.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 0.67
21-00UT 2.33 2.00 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 26-Sep 28 2026

Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep 28
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 26-Sep 28 2026

Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep 28
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 26-28 Sep.

021

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 26/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-26T01:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 25 2158 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2687
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 25 2158 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 25 2158 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 25/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-25T13:04:01Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 25 0835 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 25 1200 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2266
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 25 0835 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 25 0835 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 25 1200 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 25-Sep 27 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 25-Sep 27 2026

Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
00-03UT 3.67 3.00 2.33
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.33
09-12UT 2.67 2.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.33 1.67 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected as
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences are
anticipated to continue and wane through 27 Sep.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2026

Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
through 27 Sep.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2026

Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 27 Sep.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 25/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-25T07:04:06Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 25 0226 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 25 1800 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5421
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 25 0226 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 25 0226 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 25 1800 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 25-Sep 27 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 25-Sep 27 2026

Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
00-03UT 3.67 3.00 2.33
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.33
09-12UT 2.67 2.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.33 1.67 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2026

Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2026

Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 25-27 Sep.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 25/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-25T07:04:02Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 25 0257 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2686
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 25 0300 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 25 0257 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

010

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 24/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-24T19:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5419 Valid From: 2026 Sep 24 0944 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 24 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5420
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 24 1430 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5419
Valid From: 2026 Sep 24 0944 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 24 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 24-Sep 26 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 24-Sep 26 2026

Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26
00-03UT 3.00 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 2.33 3.67 3.67
06-09UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 4.33 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.67
15-18UT 2.33 3.00 2.33
18-21UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 24 Sep due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active levels are
expected to persist on 25 and 26 Sep as HSS effects gradually wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2026

Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2026

Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 26 Sep primarily due to the flare potential of Active
Regions 4536, 4538, and 4537.

001

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 24/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-24T13:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 24 0944 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 24 1500 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5419
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 24 0945 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 24 0944 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 24 1500 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 24/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-24T13:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 24 0945 UTC Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2685
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 24 0952 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 24 0945 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

010

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 16/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-16T07:05:23Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5417 Valid From: 2026 Sep 15 1849 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 16 1800 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5418
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 16 0538 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5417
Valid From: 2026 Sep 15 1849 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 16 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2026

Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
00-03UT 3.67 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 3.67 2.00
09-12UT 2.67 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
15-18UT 3.33 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 16-17 Sep due to
the anticipated effect of -CH HSS and CMEs glancing blow.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026

Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026

Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 16/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-16T01:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 15 1849 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 16 0600 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5417
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 15 1850 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 15 1849 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 16 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 16/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-16T01:04:02Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 16 0030 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2684
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 16 0034 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 16 0030 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

010

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 15/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-15T19:04:02Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 15 1855 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 16 0600 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2265
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 15 1856 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 15 1855 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 16 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 15-Sep 17 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 15-Sep 17 2026

Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17
00-03UT 3.00 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 2.33 3.33 3.00
06-09UT 0.33 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 0.67 2.67 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 3.00 3.67 2.00
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.67

Rationale: Active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 15 and
16 Sep, with a chance for G1 conditions persisting on 17 Sep, due to
combined negative polarity CH HSS and CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2026

Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17
S1 or greater 20% 10% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2026

Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 15-17 Sep period.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 14/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-14T19:04:06Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 14 1653 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 14 2349 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5416
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 14 1654 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 14 1653 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 14 2349 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 14-Sep 16 2026

Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
00-03UT 1.00 3.33 3.67
03-06UT 2.33 3.67 3.33
06-09UT 1.33 3.33 3.00
09-12UT 2.00 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 3.33 2.00 3.33
18-21UT 3.67 3.00 3.67
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)

Rationale: The likelihood of G1 storming increases on 16 Sep as a
subsequent -CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026

Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026

Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

010

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 14/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-14T19:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 14 1743 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2683
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 14 1802 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 14 1743 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

032

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 08/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-08T19:04:09Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2263 Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2264
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 08 1727 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2263
Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 08-Sep 10 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 08-Sep 10 2026

Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10
00-03UT 4.33 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 2.67
06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 2.33
09-12UT 3.67 3.67 2.00
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.00
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 0.67
18-21UT 4.33 3.00 1.33
21-00UT 3.33 2.67 1.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely through 09 Sep due
to combined positive polarity CH HSS effects and the anticipated arrival
of CMEs that left the Sun on 05 and 06 Sep.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 08-Sep 10 2026

Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 08-Sep 10 2026

Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels due to
occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 10 Sep.

011

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 08/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-08T19:04:05Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5414 Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 09 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5415
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 08 1730 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5414
Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 09 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 08/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-08T19:04:02Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 08 1744 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2049
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 08 1751 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 08 1744 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

074

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 08/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-08T13:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 08 0730 UTC Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2048
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 08 0734 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 08 0730 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

011

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 08/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-08T07:04:06Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5413 Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5414
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 08 0545 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5413
Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 08-Sep 10 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 08-Sep 10 2026

Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10
00-03UT 4.33 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 4.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 2.33
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.00
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.00
15-18UT 4.00 3.33 0.67
18-21UT 4.33 3.00 1.33
21-00UT 3.33 2.67 1.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely through 09 Sep due
to combined positive polarity CH HSS effects and the anticipated arrival
of CMEs that left the Sun on 05 and 06 Sep.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 08-Sep 10 2026

Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 08-Sep 10 2026

Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels due to
occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 10 Sep.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 08/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-08T07:04:02Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2262 Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 1800 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2263
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 08 0546 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2262
Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 08/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-08T01:04:01Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 2000 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 08 0600 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2262
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 07 2001 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 2000 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 08 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

031

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 07/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-07T19:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5412 Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5413
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 07 1413 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5412
Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Sep 08 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 07-Sep 09 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 07-Sep 09 2026

Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09
00-03UT 1.33 4.33 3.67
03-06UT 2.00 4.33 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1)
09-12UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.67
12-15UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 3.33
15-18UT 3.67 4.00 3.33
18-21UT 3.67 4.33 3.00
21-00UT 3.33 3.33 2.67

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) periods are likely and a slight chance of
reaching G2 (Moderate) levels on 08-09 Sep if the CMEs from 05-06 Sep
impact Earth as forecast. Confidence is low on the timing and magnitude
of the CME arrivals.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 07-Sep 09 2026

Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 07-Sep 09 2026

Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 09 Sep.

033

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 07/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-07T13:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC Valid To: 2026 Sep 07 1800 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5412
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 07 0855 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Sep 07 0854 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Sep 07 1800 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

041

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 07/09/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-09-07T13:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 07 1107 UTC Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2682
Issue Time: 2026 Sep 07 1108 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Sep 07 1107 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 31/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-31T13:04:01Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Aug 31 0858 UTC Valid To: 2026 Aug 31 1500 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5411
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 31 0858 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Aug 31 0858 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Aug 31 1500 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2026

Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02
00-03UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.33 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 3.33 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 3.33 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 3.67 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.67 0.67 0.67
18-21UT 0.67 1.33 1.33
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2026

Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2026

Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 31 Aug - 02 Sep.

020

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 30/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-30T07:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5409 Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 30 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5410
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 30 0555 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5409
Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 30 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 30-Sep 01 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 30-Sep 01 2026

Aug 30 Aug 31 Sep 01
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.67 2.00 1.33
06-09UT 3.67 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.67 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 1.67 1.00 1.33
15-18UT 1.00 1.00 1.33
18-21UT 1.67 0.67 1.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2026

Aug 30 Aug 31 Sep 01
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2026

Aug 30 Aug 31 Sep 01
R1-R2 25% 25% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 30-31 Aug and 01 Sep. As Region 4517 rotates off the disk, activity
levels are expected to decrease to a slight chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.

040

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 29/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-29T13:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5408 Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 30 0600 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5409
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 29 1142 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5408
Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 30 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 29-Aug 31 2026

Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
00-03UT 4.33 2.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.33 3.67 2.00
06-09UT 3.67 3.67 1.67
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 1.67
12-15UT 3.00 1.67 1.00
15-18UT 3.67 1.00 1.00
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 0.67
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 2.00

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, coupled
with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026

Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026

Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 29-31 Aug.

010

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 29/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-29T01:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 2039 UTC Valid To: 2026 Aug 29 0600 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2261
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 28 2040 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 2039 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Aug 29 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 29-Aug 31 2026

Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 1.67
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 2.00
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 1.67
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 1.67
12-15UT 3.67 1.67 1.00
15-18UT 3.67 1.00 1.00
18-21UT 2.67 1.67 0.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, coupled
with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026

Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026

Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28-30 Aug.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 29/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-29T01:04:02Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5407 Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 29 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5408
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 28 2350 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5407
Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 28/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-28T19:04:06Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC Valid To: 2026 Aug 28 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5407
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 28 1411 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Aug 28 1409 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Aug 28 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 28-Aug 30 2026

Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
00-03UT 1.00 5.67 (G2) 2.67
03-06UT 0.67 5.67 (G2) 3.67
06-09UT 1.00 4.67 (G1) 3.67
09-12UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.67
12-15UT 2.67 3.67 1.67
15-18UT 3.67 3.67 1.00
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 1.67
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 2.67

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 28-29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and the
anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026

Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026

Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28-30 Aug.

010

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 28/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-28T19:04:02Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 28 1500 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2681
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 28 1502 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 28 1500 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 19/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-19T19:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5405 Valid From: 2026 Aug 17 2101 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 20 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5406
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 19 1757 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5405
Valid From: 2026 Aug 17 2101 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 20 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 19 1210 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2026

Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
00-03UT 2.67 4.00 4.00
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 4.00 3.33 1.67
09-12UT 4.33 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 4.00 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 3.67 2.00 2.67
18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.67
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19 Aug due to the
ongoing negative CH HSS influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026

Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026

Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 19-21 Aug.

000

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 19/08/2026

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-19T07:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 19 0545 UTC Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2047
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 19 0545 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 19 0545 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2026

Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
00-03UT 4.33 4.00 4.00
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 4.00 3.33 1.67
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 4.00 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 3.67 2.00 2.67
18-21UT 3.33 2.33 2.67
21-00UT 3.67 3.00 3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19 Aug due to the
influences of a CME and/or CIR.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026

Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026

Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events through 21 Aug.

020