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arvi

@ashrivats.bsky.social
279 followers 152 following 117 posts

former statistician

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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I read the article. In the case of Wilson, she seems more in the wrong than the fan, and everything else was about the Fever fans being toxic online, which to me has more to do with Clark being a lightning rod and having really weird stans.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Genuine Q: in what way are the Fever MAGA besides Cunningham?
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Yeah, I don’t think this is without risk. Knies has more runway by virtue of being a couple years younger. But short of swindling a team, this seems like a good trade to me.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Basically every stats model has like, a 4-5 goal gap between them at the minimum. It’s not a tiny difference
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I’m cautiously optimistic, but a lot depends on the deal they sign marchenko to and any throw in assets in either direction
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The way this makes the most sense to me is that the FO basically views player costs as not that relevant going forward because the cap increases are so large that every team will be more constrained by who they have on their roster than with how much they pay those players.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
New podcast! @actingthefulemin.bsky.social and I go around the Atlantic division and review the offseasons of each team in it: soundcloud.com/back-to-exci...
soundcloud.com
Episode 229 - Around the Atlantic Division
Today, we go around the Atlantic Division to discuss the Leafs' closest competition Boston Bruins [1:12] Buffalo Sabres [8:56] Detroit Red Wings [21:22] Florida Panthers [32:07] Montreal Canadiens [45
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I am not making any claims about those. Your original statement was that you found no valid claim that these models have real utility. My claim is that they have real utility to me in this specific way.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I’ve been able to implement models and products at work that would have taken me 6 months to never in a pre-AI world. If it never gets better from here, it would still be extremely beneficial for my work.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Extremely normcore opinion but The Odyssey in 70mm IMAX just absolutely rips. Fantastic movie and experience
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
New podcast! @actingthefulemin.bsky.social and I chat about the Leafs' offseason moves: soundcloud.com/back-to-exci...
soundcloud.com
Episode 228 - Leafs Offseason Review
The official podcast of PensionPlanPuppets.com. Arvind and Acting the Fulemin take you around the world of hockey and the NHL, with a focus on the Toronto Maple Leafs
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Fair point
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Thank you! And yeah, those two counters were amazing (Saka and Bellingham are absurd). I guess I viewed them as more self inflicted from Mexico, with Englands stars really taking advantage.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Fantastic seems incredibly strong, no? They stayed compact for a while and had two great counters with very sloppy defending from Mexico. It’s not like they were consistently generating counter opportunities either
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Reminds me of the Suarez goal vs Newcastle
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
After free agency
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Why would you say something so controversial, yet so brave
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
New pod! @actingthefulemin.bsky.social and I chat about the Leafs draft lottery win, and the recent hires of John Chayka and Mats Sundin. soundcloud.com/back-to-exci...
soundcloud.com
Episode 227 - Leafs Win Draft Lottery Reactions & John Chayka Deep Dive
Today, we discuss the Leafs stroke of good luck in their draft lottery win. We follow it up with a long deep dive into John Chayka's history as GM of the Arizona Coyotes, and what it might mean for hi
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Going to the Leafs? Not sure I understand
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Yeah, trading down is kinda ludicrous IMO. McKenna seems like he probably has the highest upside. The stuff about bad details/motor makes me worry, and Stenberg being a genuinely excellent SHL player at his age is pretty wild.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Basically everyone I’ve seen have put Stenberg in that conversation. I don’t think it’d be unreasonable to pick him, with the caveat that I’m not a prospect guy myself.
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Reposted by arvi
Acting the Fulemin @actingthefulemin.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
Crazy how Canada's capital also featured an incompetent shooter tonight
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
I’m glad that as bad as things get for Leafs fans, the universe still allows us to make fun of the Sens
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
He told his owner he wasn’t doing an interview for a new job, then took an interview for a new job, misrepresenting the role as well
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Right, any actual analysis has to reckon with him getting picks docked, and the team sucking every year.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
If I was to steel man his tenure it would be: 1. Made good bets on Keller/Schmaltz/Chychrun 2. Limited huge problem contracts (though Goligoski was pretty bad) 3. Identified some good players early like Bunting (think Garland predates him) 4. Kuemper was a solid acquisition to my memory?
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Having met and interacted with a lot of people in the rough shape of Chayka (smart business focused people), my guess is that he’s a great interview. I bet he has reasons for why things in Arizona didn’t work out ideally, and they all sound reasonable. But I’m underwhelmed by the track record.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
His job is also to manage the relationship with the owner! Sometimes you can’t, but it also can’t just be hand waved away
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
5. He had a tough hand in terms of ownership and resources. But part of his job is to deal with ownership, and it’s hard to argue he did a great job there. 6. I said this with Dubas and I stand by it: it’s not enough to not fuck up. You need to make actively good moves. I don’t see a ton of those
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
3. His trades are a really mixed bag; trading a first for Stepan was terrible, but he did weaponize cap space for assets. Unfortunately, we’re in a world where I care way more about the former, because the latter is less relevant for the Leafs and in today’s NHL 4. He was an ethical disaster
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
It seems increasingly likely it’s going to be Chayka as Leafs GM. My main thoughts on him are: 1. He made excellent picks in the 2016 draft. Keller at 7 and Chychrun at 16 were both great value. 2. His overall draft record is mid, because he also threw away a 5th overall pick on Hayton
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
What, you’re not convinced by the record number of business partnerships the Coyotes recorded in his tenure?
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
He also breached draft rules for a really dumb reason: taking measurements of players! The risk reward there is just insane
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
There’s a terrifying amount of sanewashing on Chayka IMO.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
New podcast! @actingthefulemin.bsky.social and I discuss the Leafs trade deadline, the outlook for the remainder of the season, and where they go from here. soundcloud.com/back-to-exci...
soundcloud.com
Episode 226 - Leafs Trade Deadline Recap
The official podcast of PensionPlanPuppets.com. Arvind and Acting the Fulemin take you around the world of hockey and the NHL, with a focus on the Toronto Maple Leafs
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Not to crap on an otherwise fantastic game from Matthews, but this was kind of an optimistic angle to take, and every team now has top players who take advantage of that.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
The American broadcast has genuinely spent about 3 minutes praising Matthew Tkachuk for passing it back to the point on the Faber goal.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Should also mention that Q. Hughes and Werenski are a ridiculously good pairing, and combine really well with the star forwards
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
And on cue, Matthews line forces an icing, Eichel line piles on pressure, Matthews line gets a goal. They’re good enough for this to work against everyone, but the top two lines are dogs to carry play like this against Canada.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
The Americans are a real top 6 / bottom 6 team now, which is shocking given the talent they have.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
How is Domi both failing by being too low as the third man on a contested faceoff, and being late to get back on D?
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
One of the most frustrating things about Max Domi on the top line is that the opportunity cost of his “fuck it, someone’s in the slot” passes goes way up.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
Imposter syndrome as a concept has done immense damage to society. As it turns out, some people feel fraudulent because they are, in fact, frauds.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Everything the Leafs do makes sense when you realize they are utterly terrified of being proven wrong by acting too early.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
The Leafs are an organization that employs people who show the competence of the kids from Succession
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
New pod! @actingthefulemin.bsky.social and I chat about the start of the Leafs season, including what's gone well (not much), poorly (quite a lot), and worse than we could have imagined (a distressingly large number of things) soundcloud.com/back-to-exci...
soundcloud.com
Episode 225 - The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Through Six Weeks of the Leafs
In this episode, we go through the positives and negatives of the Leafs season through the first six weeks of their campaign
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Lotta nice things in that Leafs win, but my concern level over Matthews is not zero.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
In 23/24 he took 800 draws and his most regular linemates were Kolesar and Carrier. That doesn’t seem so different than what will be asked of him here?
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Not that I totally disagree with your point, but Roy has absolutely worked on a 3rd line before. He’s has multiple years where he was between 7-9 among Vegas Fs in ice time.
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arvi @ashrivats.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
New pod! @actingthefulemin.bsky.social and I chat about teams from Philadelphia to Winnipeg, wrapping up our offseason recap podcasts! soundcloud.com/back-to-exci...
soundcloud.com
Episode 224 - Around the NHL (Part 3)
Today, we talk about teams from Philadelphia to Winnipeg. Timestamps: * Intro (0:00) * Philadelphia Flyers (1:43) * Pittsburgh Penguins (16:01) * San Jose Sharks (29:38) * Seattle Kraken (38:40) * St.
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