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Ash Khayami

@ashkhayami4.bsky.social
30 followers 30 following 47 posts

Latin America Analyst @fitchsolutions 🇦🇷🇧🇴🇨🇴🇩🇴🇪🇨🇬🇹🇵🇷 | New York City | columbiaSIPA & haverfordedu alum | Views are my own; Likes ≠ endorsements

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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Great analysis here on recent US balance of payment dynamics. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/hone...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Honey, Who Shrunk the U.S. Income Surplus? - Liberty Street Economics
The net investment income surplus faded due to post-pandemic interest rate hikes and continued net sales of U.S. assets to foreign investors.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
“Perle, who had served on the advisory or executive boards of FDD, WINEP, Hudson, CSP, and JINSA, & was a charter signatory in 1997 of PNAC along with the most determined champions of invading Iraq inside the future George W. Bush administration.” responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-war-thi...
responsiblestatecraft.org
Blame these think tanks for the Iran War
We asked AI who the biggest boosters of the conflict are. Surprise: they are all connected to Israel and supported the Iraq war too.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
Great read! ‘Resolving debt cannot come at the cost of destroying the assets that make recovery possible […] Debt-for-assets and debt-for-equity mechanisms offer a way to convert liabilities into productive investment, aligning creditor recovery with economic growth.’ iqlatino.org/venezuelas-d...
iqlatino.org
Venezuela’s debt: from default to reconstruction - IQ Latino
This debate is no longer theoretical. It will become increasingly relevant as the United States eases financial restrictions on Venezuela through new OFAC
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
My assumption is the system will change little in the short term as the government (US & VZ) will prioritize production/output over accountability and rule of law in the sector, to support an economic recovery over an improved security situation.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
‘The new mining law envisions replacing strategic alliances with “mining brigades.” However, it contains little detail on what is to become of existing alliances or how the state will tackle criminal involvement in these operations.’
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Mientras el mercado continúe financiando al gobierno, el ajuste podrá seguir aplazándose. Pero si un evento financiero […] interrumpe esos flujos, la crisis de caja se traducirá en recortes abruptos, congelamiento de apropiaciones y atrasos en pagos, incluyendo posiblemente obligaciones financieras.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Some excellent analysis here… “Bajo el marco tributario de referencia —el que resultaría de eliminar todos los beneficios tributarios y toda forma de evasión—, el gobierno debería estar recaudando más del 31 por ciento del PIB.” www.lasillavacia.com/silla-academ...
lasillavacia.com
El laberinto fiscal que heredará el próximo presidente de Colombia
Entrevista a Oliver Pardo, profesor de la Universidad Javeriana, sobre la magnitud del problema de deuda, déficit y crisis de finanzas publicas del país.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
In any case, Colombia’s current precarious fiscal position make some of these ideas incredibly risky… If they fail & lead to a protracted econ crisis… It could do significant, lasting damage to the economic credibility of the Left, exactly when it is on the front foot politically.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Important read for Colombia watchers… This new think tank of heterodox, post Keynesian economic policy will be a key influence on a possible Cepeda govt… Some ideas aren’t that far fetched, but many have been tried elsewhere & failed (esp low rates in turkiye). www.lasillavacia.com/silla-nacion...
lasillavacia.com
Centro Vida: esto propone la nueva escuela económica del petrismo
Es donde se elabora lo que Petro llama “mi nuevo modelo económico”. Sin miedo a la inflación, promueve alto gasto público e industrialización sin petróleo.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
“For years, high inflation made interest-free payment installments a common strategy to maintain consumer buying power by letting price increases wipe out the value of debt. But that cushion has disappeared as inflation has slowed.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Argentines Plunge Into Debt for Bills, Cars and Birthday Parties
Cristian Dezilio thought the loan he took out to buy his son a used car to get around Buenos Aires’ suburbs was plenty manageable at $355 a month in pesos.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Excellent reporting on how the decision to go to war was made… despite many being skeptical… “Everyone deferred to the president’s instincts. They had seen him make bold decisions, take on unfathomable risks & somehow come out on top. No one would impede him now.” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
nytimes.com
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
“Iran’s strategy at the moment is the madman’s strategy: When cornered or attacked, he shows no mercy, respects no red lines & advances in unpredictable & unimaginable ways. If Trump acts crazy, we act crazier. It’s working.” And people thought DJT’s behavior wouldn’t have repercussions…
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
From an anti-govt resident of Tehran, Yassi: “The Iranian people, at least those I know, do not want the regime to survive, but we don’t want the war to go on and on either. War means destruction. Both the innocent and guilty burn.”
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
If you have opined on this war and not made any effort to read about what the people on the ground have said or experienced… shame on you… This piece is an excellent place to start… www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Two Diaries of War, From Opposing Sides of Iran’s Political Divide
One supports the regime, the other desires change. Each offers a personal account of the terrifying sights and frayed emotions of a city under attack.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
‘The financial losses could be as much as 2% or 3% of the state’s gross domestic product […] “Prices in Culiacán are inflated & way higher than what the average person can pay,” said one member of a local business group. “We live with this ‘narco-inflation’ without even realizing it.” bit.ly/432WXwt
bit.ly
As Sinaloa Cartel War Rages On, An Economy Bleeds Dry in Culiacán, Mexico
After eight months of relentless Sinaloa Cartel infighting, Culiacán and surrounding areas are confronting historic economic losses.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
As students of (LatAm) politics, we know better than to heavily buy into any one political leader’s personal appeal or ‘legend.’ Everyone in power is flawed & vulnerable to the allure of corruption. For me, Pepe was as close as we get to the exception… www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/o...
nytimes.com
José Mujica, Leftist President of Uruguay Known for Humility, Dies at 89
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
I can't tell you how absolutely livid I feel about the fact that, while I'm checking in with Los Angeles friends to make sure they and their homes are safe, certain Republican senators are going on TV and explaining with shitty little grins how LA had it coming and doesn't deserve relief aid.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 10/01/2025
the all but official position of the republican party is that voting for democrats disqualifies you from federal disaster assistance
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
elfaro.net/en/202412/op...
elfaro.net
How to Make Billions of Dollars Disappear
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Don’t let that 3% fool you… its been in single digits for a while. Boluarte is protected on the streets by a loyal, repressive security apparatus, in the legislature by a corrupt congress, and economically by investors quite content with a favorable mining sector (GDP outlook is fairly strong too).
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
worth a listen before it goes up behind the paywall: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com
The Sunday Read: ‘The Alienation of Jaime Cachua’
Podcast Episode · The Daily · 12/22/2024 · 30m
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
1/7 China Daily says that now that last week's "Central Economic Work Conference identified the 'vigorous promotion of consumption' as the top priority for 2025", Beijing will "roll out an array of targeted measures to... www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/20/...
chinadaily.com.cn
Targeted measures to boost consumption
China will roll out an array of targeted measures to simultaneously boost consumption and deliver tangible benefits to the people after policymakers signaled a shift in prioritizing the expansion of d...
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 20/12/2024
In November, something happened at the US-Mexico border, almost certainly for the first time ever. You have to look closely at the chart to see it. More migrants came to official border crossings, usually with CBP One appointments (green), than were apprehended elsewhere by Border Patrol (blue).
CBP Encounters with Migrants At (OFO) and Between (USBP) U.S.-Mexico Border Ports of Entry

	Between the Ports of Entry (Border Patrol)	At the Ports of Entry (CBP Office of Field Operations)	Total
Oct-23	188,749	52,178	240,927
Nov-23	191,106	51,293	242,399
Dec-23	249,740	52,241	301,981
Jan-24	124,215	51,980	176,195
Feb-24	140,641	49,272	189,913
Mar-24	137,473	51,886	189,359
Apr-24	128,895	50,842	179,737
May-24	117,905	52,811	170,716
Jun-24	83,532	46,883	130,415
Jul-24	56,400	47,700	104,100
Aug-24	58,009	49,464	107,473
Sep-24	53,858	47,932	101,790
Oct-24	56,526	49,809	106,335
Nov-24	46,612	47,578	94,190
Total	1,633,661	701,869	2,335,530
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
“…evidence suggests that the TdA has had trouble expanding in places with competitive criminal markets and where state coercive capacity is strong.” www.americasquarterly.org/article/how-...
americasquarterly.org
How Much of a Threat is Tren de Aragua in the U.S.?
The Venezuelan prison gang was a frequent theme in Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric on immigration. But its reach in the U.S. is exaggerated.
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Sam “The Great Pumpkin” Thielman @samthielman.com · 05/12/2024
This story is uh, insane www.cbsnews.com/news/police-...
Adair, Iowa, had a population of 794. So, it seemed suspicious when its three-person police department asked regulators to buy 90 machine guns, including an M134 Gatling-style minigun capable of shooting up to 6,000 rounds of ammunition every minute.
Federal agents later discovered Adair's police chief, Bradley Wendt, was using his position to acquire weapons and sell them for personal profit. A jury convicted Wendt earlier this year of conspiracy to defraud the United States, lying to federal law enforcement and illegal possession of a machine gun.
Wendt is unapologetic and has appealed his conviction.
"If I'm guilty of this, every cop in the nation's going to jail," Wendt told CBS News just days before a federal judge sentenced him to a 5-year prison term.
Wendt's crimes appear to be part of a nationwide pattern.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Hard to tell if this is good for the odds of peace. I’m probably more optimistic than most. Still, these groups are deeply embedded in their localities and still have strong revenue streams. Lasting peace is still several years away most likely. insightcrime.org/news/whatint...
insightcrime.org
What an Internal Split Means for Colombia’s Second Marquetalia
A rift within the Second Marquetalia underscores the fragility of alliances among illegal groups and highlights the challenges the Colombian government faces when negotiating with diverse organization...
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
This suggestion by Mark Cuban caught my eye; might work, certainly worth floating, but I think insufficiently cynical. Opposition to phasing out coal isn't about jobs; it isn't even, mostly, about profits. It's a front in the culture war. 1/
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Unfortunately the politics may make this impossible as Morales will likely frame any meaningful policy adjustment as ‘selling out the people’
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
An 11% budget uptick is unsustainable. Subsidies may keep prices low (for a bit) but it will drive continued shortages too. The govt can either start a painful adjustment on its own terms, or it can wander into an unavoidable econ crisis that will be much more painful. apnews.com/article/boli...
apnews.com
'Everything is expensive!' Bolivia faces a shocking economic collapse
Across what was once South America’s second-largest producer of natural gas, everyone is searching for fuel.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
“In life there is a time to arrive and a time to leave ...” Mujica’s tempered, realistic, & even self critical views are a reflection & basis for the stability seen in Uruguay. His leftist peers who refuse to give up power would do well to learn a thing or 2 from him batimes.com.ar/news/latin-a...
batimes.com.ar
Mujica: Left’s return to power in Uruguay is ‘a farewell prize’
José ‘Pepe’ Mujica is perhaps the most famous Uruguayan in the world, but that doesn't faze him. “I'm not a phenomenon; I'm an ordinary guy with some eccentricities,” says the 89-year-old former presi...
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
1/7 According to the FT, "China’s long-term bond yields have fallen below Japan’s for the first time, as investors bet that the world’s second-biggest economy will become bogged down by the deflation that has long afflicted its neighbour." www.ft.com/content/d299...
ft.com
Chinese bond market grapples with ‘Japanification’
Deflation fuels ‘inexorable’ slide in China’s long-term sovereign bond yields below Japan’s for the first time
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Joshua Collins @murosinvisibles.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Armed men from ELN intercepted an armored SUV escorted by Colombian police in Norte Santander on Friday morning that was carrying around $600,000. After a shootout with police, they managed to flee with all the money
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Edward Harrison @edwardnh.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Who Are These Federal Workers Trump Wants to Fire? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
“Local networks continue to smuggle goods like food from Colombia into Venezuela, exploiting stark price disparities between the two countries. […] smuggled potatoes are sold at lower prices, bypassing quality controls and posing serious health risks to Venezuelan consumers.” bit.ly/3Ze2oIb
bit.ly
Smuggling Adapts to Reopening of the Colombia-Venezuela Border
Each night at Colombia’s Cúcuta border city, illegal dirt tracks connecting the city to Venezuela become highways for smuggling.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
“The document Tuesday contained no indication that any attempt to carry out an assassination on Lula or Alckmin was put into motion. However, investigators found messages and documents indicating that the plotters were monitoring and following de Moraes at the time.” apnews.com/article/braz...
apnews.com
Brazilian police arrest 5 officers in alleged 2022 coup plot to kill President Lula, others
Brazil's federal police have arrested five officers accused of plotting a coup that included plans to overthrow the government following the 2022 elections and kill then-President-elect Luiz Inácio Lu...
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
“Indeed, the shift […] could very well be a blip that was part of a nationwide reaction to the high price[…] that accompanied a once-in-a-century pandemic, which led to similar rightward political shifts in other developed countries.” www.brookings.edu/articles/tru... @brookingsinst.bsky.social
brookings.edu
Trump gained some minority voters, but the GOP is hardly a multiracial coalition
Analyses of 2024 election exit polls claim that President-elect Donald Trump’s strong showing has transformed his party’s base into a new, powerful multiracial coalition.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 16/09/2024
“The militias, meanwhile, maintain ties to the state, in particular the police, which means they can control territory with far fewer foot soldiers. Their contacts also offer a level of impunity, according to Maria Isabel Couto (Fogo Cruzado Institute).” insightcrime.org/news/inside-...
insightcrime.org
Inside the Battle for Rio de Janeiro: Red Command Versus Militias
In Rio de Janeiro, the balance of power may be shifting from militias to one of the city’s oldest criminal groups.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 08/09/2024
“Guyanese authorities, working with information from the US […] discovered an illegal airstrip where they seized 4.4 tons […] The record discovery dwarfs the total 85 kilograms of cocaine seized in 2023 and the 1.6 tons seized in total since the beginning of 2020” insightcrime.org/news/increas...
insightcrime.org
Increased Foreign Presence Around Guyana Is Helping Net More Cocaine
An enormous cocaine seizure in Guayana highlights the authorities’ reliance on foreign assistance in netting large quantities of cocaine.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 08/09/2024
—The rest was used by the agency’s general director and others, the report alleged. “As a general director, I find it normal to use the institution’s cash register to support myself,” Germain Paulémon, told investigators, according to the report. He could not be immediately reached for comment.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 08/09/2024
—One case involves the general director and other officials at Haiti’s National Solid Waste Management Service. The report states that [a $1.7 disbursal] only 45% of the fuel bought was used for the agency’s daily operations. abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
abcnews.go.com
Haiti unveils new corruption cases against high-level officials even as impunity persists
Haiti's anti-corruption agency is accusing high-ranking government officials of crimes ranging from illicit enrichment to abuse of office
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 08/09/2024
In a normal political environment, this would be a boon to the opposition, but since narco-based corruption seems to encompass the entire political class/spectrum… it really only adds to electoral and socio-political uncertainty, rather than a boost to any specific party. elfaro.net/en/202408/ce...
elfaro.net
Castro Responds to Evidence of Drug Ties in Inner Circle by Alleging Coup Conspiracy
<p>President Xiomara Castro has answered scathing new evidence of drug ties against her husband and brother-in-law by accusing the military, opposition, and U.S. Embassy of plotting a coup d’état. Rix...
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 12/04/2024
“Tariquía reveals the contradiction at the heart of Bolivia’s model under the MAS governments of Morales & Arce: the nationalisation of fossil fuels was meant to drive a revolutionary agenda, but reliance on their extraction ultimately limited the radicalism of what was possible.” t.co/imQb6xty31
t.co
Power to the people? Bolivia’s hunt for gas targets national parks – and divides communities
Fossil fuel exports were meant to fund a revolutionary leftist agenda. But the state’s move to drill in Tariquía reserve has led to bitter conflict and diminishing returns
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 06/04/2024
“Dialogue between the area’s different communities is another challenge. Indigenous people in La Guajira are widely dispersed among rural communities, or rancherías, that often struggle to agree on windfarm development.” www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
theguardian.com
Wind resistance: can Colombia overcome opposition to get its green energy plan back on track?
In the state of La Guajira, ambitious plans to transition to renewables are beset by bureaucratic delays and anger from many local Indigenous people, who see it as ‘new colonialism’
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 06/04/2024
“there’s a strong desire for legitimacy, which comes with having a seat at the negotiating table with the government. This group fundamentally does not understand why it is the only major armed group in Colombia outside the peace process.” insightcrime.org/news/is-agc-...
insightcrime.org
Q&A: How the AGC Threatens Colombia’s Plans for Total Peace
The drug trafficking group's expanding reach threatens to disrupt peace processes with other criminal groups, a recent report found.
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Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 05/04/2024
Doctors Without Borders secretary general: "We have been saying it for weeks now: this pattern of attacks is either intentional or indicative of reckless incompetence."
MS dismisses Israeli claim aid worker killings were a regrettable incident'
Doctors Without Borders (MSF) says it rejects Israel's position that an air raid that killed seven aid workers on Monday was a "regrettable incident", saying many humanitarian personnel have been attacked previously.
"We do not accept it because what has happened to World Central Kitchen and MSF's convoys and shelters is part of the same pattern of deliberate attacks on hu-manitarians, health workers, journalists, UN personnel, schools and homes", Christopher Lockyear, secretary-general of MSF International, said at a news conference in Geneva.
He added, "We have been saying it for weeks now: this pattern of attacks is either intentional or indicative of reckless incompetence."
He said the killings of the World Central Kitchen workers showed that measures to ease the conflict were futile "in a war fought with no rules".
"Our movements and locations are shared, coordinated and identified already.
This is about i
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Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 02/04/2024
I've been thinking a lot recently about all the people back in December who thought it was idiotic to point out Netanyahu had incentives to continue the war on Gaza as long as possible so he could remain in power.
Grim's Far: The war in Gaza is not going to last another six months. You know that.
Matt Novak: I don’t know that. Why would I know that? Are you aware of other reporting that suggests the war will be over soon?
Grim's Far: Please. The Netanyahu government says a lot of shit. That's what you're basing your comments on? 

The Biden administration is raising objections now. You honestly think in six months we'll still see the status quo? Get real.
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Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 02/04/2024
Much like the deaths of so many Palestinian journalists, it almost doesn’t matter whether these deaths are “intentional” on Israel’s part. Their actions keep delivering these results. People are starving and aid workers are dying. Whatever the intention behind each act, this is the result.
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 30/03/2024
“En la izquierda en general, y en América Latina en particular, ha habido una tendencia a no hacerse cargo de los errores propios. Es un error defender ciertos regímenes porque se entienden como parte de la misma familia.“ elpais.com/chile/2024-0...
elpais.com
Gabriel Boric: “La izquierda en América Latina ha tenido tendencia a no hacerse cargo de sus propios errores”
El presidente de Chile revisa en entrevista con EL PAÍS su labor de Gobierno y su futuro político. “La profundidad de los cambios que nos imaginamos fue a contrapelo de lo que quería la mayoría. Cambi...
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Ash Khayami @ashkhayami4.bsky.social · 29/03/2024
“Giammattei handed out licenses to miners like they were going out of style [..] It will be difficult for Arévalo to respect the rights of the [Indigenous] peoples, because there are mining contracts that were already granted.“ elfaro.net/en/202403/ce...
elfaro.net
“Despite the new government, the advance of mining in Guatemala is already decided”
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