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✅ What to do: - Promote savings and ensure that the storage is filled to have a buffer for the next winter - Push for structural demand reduction by fuel switching and electrification (e.g., through lower electricity taxes) - Engage with other major LNG buyers to coordinate global gas savings 3/5

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⚠️ The situation: - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global LNG supply by 20% - 4% of the EU's gas imports come from Qatar - Despite this small share, the EU faces an energy bill shock: if high prices persist, the EU's energy bill could increase by €100bn over the next 12 months 2/5

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So, what are the main takeaways? ▶️ Flexible heat pumps with thermal storage can provide valuable flexibility to the heating sector. ▶️ They can reduce the need to build other flexible power plants or storage.

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For the nerds 🤓: * We use the linear cost-minimization model with the sexy name #DIETER, modeling DE and its neighboring countries. * Scenarios model different heat pump rollouts (1.7, 3, 6, and 10M units) by 2030. * Electricity demand includes #BEVs and #hydrogen.

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Some additional points: * A heat pump rollout pairs best with wind power but can also work with solar PV and other technologies. * Small (<2h) heat storage is economically viable, while larger ones are too costly and better suited for heating grids than private households.

Capacity investments under baseline assumptions with different heat pump rollouts and heat storage sizes

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3️⃣ By installing more heat pumps, Germany could save natural gas, money, and emissions: We estimate that annual household CO2 emissions could be reduced by ~ 18% (~14 mil. tons) for 6 million heat pumps ~ 51% 🤯 (~41 mil. tons) for 10 million heat pumps.

Yearly savings of natural gas, CO2 emissions, and costs related to heat pumps

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2️⃣ Even with small thermal storage, heat pumps can absorb excessive renewable energy in the system. Instead of producing heat in the evening, when needed, they integrate cheap solar during the day.

Heatmap of the electricity demand of heat pumps for different heat storage sizes. A–E show the electricity demand of heat pumps for different heat storage sizes. Values are from the baseline scenarios with government rollout.

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Our principal insights are: 1️⃣ If equipped with a small heat thermal storage, heat pumps can store hot water for a few hours. By doing so, they can significantly reduce their peak demand and thus reduce the need for, e.g., batteries or gas-fired power plants.

Exemplary weeks of electricity generation, heat pump operation, and wholesale prices. Two exemplary weeks are shown for the government rollout of heat pumps with heat storage of 2 hours: A autumn week and B winter week.

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On the contrary, in hours of high electricity demand, neighbouring countries often also exhibit high demand (B). On top of that, PV feed-in is often low in high-demand hours (A). Wind, on the other hand, is much more heterogeneous. 11/

In hours of high electricity demand, neighbouring countries often also exhibit high demand (B). On top of that, PV feed-in is often low in high-demand hours (A). Wind, on the other hand, is much more heterogeneous.

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But what are now the results? It's mainly wind power: differences in profiles explain around 80% of the drop in storage energy and power. 9/

the drop in energy storage and power can mainly be explained by differences in wind power profiles

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We also find this effect in our analysis. In our setting, with 12 European countries in a 100%-renewable energy scenario, allowing for exchange between countries leads to a drop of 30% for long-duration storage energy. 6/

long-duration energy needs fall in case of interconnection

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Alexander Roth @aroth.bsky.social · 11/10/2023

Future electricity systems in the EU rely mainly on wind and solar. Many of you ask: what happens when there is no wind or sun? Electricity storage and interconnection to the rescue! But how do these two interact? 🧵 Get ready for some energy modelling content! 1/

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Thanks again for your comment. We have updated the section and figure: openenergytracker.org/en/docs/aust...

figure co2 emissions electricity generation australia

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Looking at the overall natural gas consumption, last year was indeed an "outlier". Will this year be the same? Given that prices are lower and the urgency to save gas has somewhat diminshed, we might see fewer savings? 4/n

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Last year's heating season saw consistent behavioral savings: they explained most of the savings! Savings compared to 18-21: ↘ Overall : 15,5% ↘ Behavioral: 13.7% ➡ Weather: 1.8% The winter was neither cold, nor warm. One cold week in December diminished a big part of the weather savings. 3/n

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At the moment, we're only at the beginning of the heating season and consumption is well below last years usual consumption - mostly thanks to lower temperatures. However, the autumn weeks are not so relevant for overall gas consumption. Relevant are the cold winter weeks! 2/n

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