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Arin Dube

@arindube.bsky.social
16K followers 723 following 9.9K posts

Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: www.thewagestandard.com

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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u58...
youtube.com
FULL: Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson face off in U.S. Senate debate ahead of Election Day
YouTube video by CBS 13 News
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I had not listened to Susan Collins of late, until tonight. She sounds ...terrible. I can't believe she is running for office.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
For increases in fed MW up to around 2/3 Median Wage, I would suggest a range between -0.3 and +0.3 capturing realistic uncertainty.
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@Arbeiterkammer @arbeiterkammer.at · 06/10/2026
Seit 20 Jahren erforscht @arindube.bsky.social den #Arbeitsmarkt - vor allem die Auswirkungen von #Mindestlöhnen. Wir freuen uns, dass der renommierte Wirtschaftswissenschafter der @umassamherst.bsky.social am 20. Oktober Gast in der #AK ist und sein Buch "The Wage Standard" vorstellt. 1/2
Zu sehen ist Arin Dube, Professor für Wirtschaftswissenschaften an der University of Massachusetts Amherst
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Magdalena Maad @magdalenamaad.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Veranstaltungsempfehlung für den 20.Oktober um 18:30! Buchpräsentation von @arindube.bsky.social 📖 Meldet euch an, es gibt noch Plätze!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Also see the Github repository: economic.github.io/owe/
economic.github.io
Minimum Wage Own Wage Elasticity Repository
Representative estimates from minimum wage studies
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Link to study with @benzipperer.org: www.nber.org/system/files...
nber.org
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Apropos of claims being made on the other site about minimum wage effects on jobs. I encourage you to look at our work on the own-wage elasticity (OWE). Most studies suggest effects that are either positive or small negative, where magnitudes are economically interpretable. 1/
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INEQ - Research Institute Economics of Inequality @ WU Vienna @ineq-wu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
🎓 INEQ Research Seminar is back for the winter term! We kick things off on 12 Oct. with a book presentation by Martin Schürz (in German). The following week, we welcome @arindube.bsky.social – a connection that started on Bluesky! 👋 🔗 Schedule & details: short.wu.ac.at/en_ineq_rs #INEQ #INEQ_RS
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
It's really ironic that precisely at the moment when Americans mad about affordability are propelling Democrats to take over the House and the Senate, Barack Obama is offering this advice. It's frankly completely out of touch, but also highlights why we are here to begin with.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Charting a path of shared prosperity is the way to bring Americans together. Not by some abstract story telling. /end
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Today we have a chance to shape our economic future - both in making sure we have good paying jobs and also make sure we shape the path of technology so it actually helps working people and not a handful of tech company elites.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
It's a fatal conceit to think we can tell a moral and ethical story to bring Americans together today without addressing the economic reality that has failed them too often over the past 50 years. That's the story I tell in The Wage Standard: and what we can do to change it. thewagestandard.com
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Check out my new post! How prices at the pump relate to which party controls the senate. arindube.substack.com/p/petrol-pri...
arindube.substack.com
Petrol Price Pass-through to Politics
The Rapidly Rising Chances of Democratic Control of Senate has a Surprisingly Simple Explanation
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This paper by @davidautor.bsky.social & co-authors is one of the most important papers to date in the space of what AI does to learning. It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching. www.nber.org/papers/w35720
nber.org
Does AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent Drafting
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Economics for Inclusive Prosperity @econfip.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
From EFIP member Arin Dube: "...the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change."
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Prediction: the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change. Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Here's a link for the book: www.thewagestandard.com
thewagestandard.com
Arindrajit Dube
Buy the book The Wage Standard What’s Wrong in the Labor Market and How to Fix It — my new book on why wages stalled for most workers, why that wasn’t inevitable, and what we can …
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I am looking forward to giving talks on The Wage Standard in Europe - in Wien, Oxford, London (Resolution Foundation), and Torino (Intl. festival of economics). October will be a busy month! Also exciting is that these talks will include some new findings. Coming soon! 1/
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Yes, there are measurement issues, tax treatment of pass-throughs, etc. But the big picture is clear.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
A tale of two inequalities. Wage inequality stopped growing circa 2015 and fell especially in post-pandemic period. In contrast, capital income inequality (and wealth inequality) has risen driven by fall in labor share. Inequality has moved from labor to capital income.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A very tight labor market that increased competition especially for those at the bottom of the labor market. www.nber.org/papers/w31010
nber.org
The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture. Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We will post a paper in the next month that will really change your priors on what you can do with public data. Stay tuned!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I mistakenly deleted my previous post on this. My apologies.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Simply put, being a low-worker may not be easy here in America. But it's relatively easier today than it was 7 years ago. This argument holds even after accounting for any differential inflation rate for low-income households. arindube.substack.com/p/inflation-...
arindube.substack.com
Inflation inequality meets wage compression
Did unequal inflation undo the post-pandemic wage compression?
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture. Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
So in some ways, it's a actually remarkable that the anti-data-center movement reflects an emergent 'wisdom of the crowd' of sorts that seemingly exceeds the information possessed by most voters. 6/6
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
This doesn’t have to the be main policy tool, but can be a useful initial organizing tool. /5
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Given voters’ stated preferences (72% want to slow AI development), if this information was truly widespread, they'd likely want to tax compute in order to slow scaling. And a natural way to start that is by raising the cost of building new data centers. /4
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Let’s leave aside whether these are remotely correct as predictions. But these really are clearly stated aims: indeed, it's OpenAI's founding mission, Meta named its division Superintelligence Labs, and one lab is literally called Safe Superintelligence Inc. 3/
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
2) believe that ASI (artificial superintelligence, or the idea of AI massively exceeding human intelligence) will follow shortly, perhaps even within a year or two of AGI, and that this is what we should actively strive for. 2/
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Most US voters would be alarmed if they learned that leading Silicon Valley AI figures: 1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing, 1/
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I don't usually post music videos but ... I just discovered this Olivia Rodrigo cover of Stick Season recently and just honestly love it so much. (We went to see Noah Kahan last month, and will go see OR in October, so this is very popular in the family.) www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
youtube.com
Olivia Rodrigo - Stick Season (Noah Kahan cover) in the Live Lounge
YouTube video by BBCRadio1VEVO
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
And in case you were wondering, yes, this is good thing.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The hit piece on Acemoglu in The Economist will largely serve, against the seeming intent of the piece, to a downward updating of priors on the magazine, and the named sources it cites.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
As I call it in my book, The Wage Standard, this is the story of the "triumvirate of endemic monopsony" www.thewagestandard.com
thewagestandard.com
Arindrajit Dube
Buy the book The Wage Standard What’s Wrong in the Labor Market and How to Fix It — my new book on why wages stalled for most workers, why that wasn’t inevitable, and what we can …
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Very proud of this piece (forthcoming in JEL). It took years to write and edit. But happy of the final outcome, and even happier to see how the literature grew even as we were reviewing it!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
One of the best things progressive Dems can do in swing states is to point out that they are particularly well-poised to deliver what Donald Trump once promised: to stop endless wars.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This flow diagram actually says a lot! More coming soon 😊
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Not posting too much these days, but want to let you know that I'm excited about a research product we'll release soon - how to use publicly available data to learn about things we thought was only possible using restricted use data. Stay tuned!
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Reminder that this is today at 3pm eastern. Come listen to the discussion about @arindube.bsky.social 's new book, The Wage Standard.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
A reminder that, norms withstanding, here in America the boss can fire you for a good reason, a bad reason, or no reason at all. Unless you have a union contract with protections. Lucky to be a member of the MTA, who can defend me if I ever were in a similar position. Wish more had the same.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
A reminder that, norms withstanding, here in America the boss can fire you for a good reason, a bad reason, or no reason at all. Unless you have a union contract with protections. Lucky to be a member of the MTA, who can defend me if I ever were in a similar position. Wish more had the same.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Here's our coauthored publication: arindube.com/wp-content/u...
arindube.com
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Sanjay is a friend, coauthor. He was the only Econ faculty member laid off, in a largely heterodox dept, after years of publicly criticizing the administration's finances. A bad look for the New School. Tenure exists precisely to allow this kind of criticism. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/n...
nytimes.com
He Had Tenure. The New School Laid Him Off Anyway. (Gift Article)
The professor, a longtime critic of the university, was among 19 educators who lost their positions as the institution navigated financial woes.
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Roosevelt Institute @rooseveltinstitute.org · 05/08/2026
For decades, productivity has risen while wage growth for most workers has lagged behind. Join us tomorrow at 3 PM ET for a conversation with @arindube.bsky.social on The Wage Standard, his new book on how we got here and how we can reset the labor market in workers' favor. ⬇️ Register below!
rooseveltinstitute.org
Roosevelt Institute Book Club presents: The Wage Standard by Arindrajit Dube
Join us on August 6th in conversation with Arindrajit Dube to learn how corporations have set this “wage standard” and what it will take to reset the labor market toward a new, worker-focused one.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
There's no bad weather, just bad gear" Getting ready for our trip to Iceland next week, for the solar eclipse!
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 05/08/2026
Very useful suggestions for economists verifying that AI-generated code correctly implements the design, so we can focus on the harder, less-automatable question: does the design actually identify the effect being claimed?
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Roosevelt Book Club! This Thursday my colleague Patrick Oakford interviews economist @arindube.bsky.social about his new book, "The Wage Standard." If you have any interest in labor markets and labor economics, you can't miss this. events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
events.zoom.us
RI Book Club: The Wage Standard
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