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Aaron Caldwell

@arcstats.bsky.social
297 followers 269 following 56 posts

Biostats nerd, Rstats fan, and R package developer. You may have known me as exphysstudent on the bird app. Website: aaroncaldwell.us

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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Seems like a logical name. I just had seen the same concept as a different name pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11113946/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Sympercents: symmetric percentage differences on the 100 log(e) scale simplify the presentation of log transformed data - PubMed
The results of analyses on log transformed data are usually back-transformed and interpreted on the original scale. Yet if natural logs are used this is not necessary--the log scale can be interpreted...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Huh interesting. I’ve not seen this called centinels before but rather sympercents.
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Reposted by Aaron Caldwell
Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
“[Of] 25 replication studies, 7 (28%) studies demonstrated robust replicability, meeting all three validation criteria: achieving statistical significance (p < 0.05) in the same direction as the original study and showing compatible effect size magnitudes as per the Z test (p > 0.05).”
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
I'm pleased to announce the publication of two important papers in Sports Medicine on the first every large replication project in sport and exercise science. Read the full papers: lnkd.in/gH3NCqK5   lnkd.in/gE7izySW #SportsScience #EvidenceBasedPractice #Research #OpenScience #Replication
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
I’ve implemented a couple different ways of plotting this in the TOSTER package aaroncaldwell.us/TOSTERpkg/ar...
aaroncaldwell.us
Standardized Mean Differences
TOSTER
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Read it and had to do a double take to understand. Looking at this, I’ve never felt so American 🤣
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Reposted by Aaron Caldwell
Dr. Benjamin Runkle @drbenrunkle.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
We're hiring at the U. of Arkansas! Asst. Prof. with the aim of a research program focus on circular bioeconomy systems, teaching, service, and mentoring graduate students and research staff. Tenure will accrue in Dept. Biol. & Agric. Engr. Apply: uasys.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UASYS/...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
⚠️ Job Alert ⚠️ We're looking to add a Assistant/Associate Professor of Biostatistics to our crew at UAMS in Northwest Arkansas! Please share widely! Awesome team, great work-life balance, and you get to help make real impact in community health. #stats uasys.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UAMS_A...
uasys.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com
Assistant/Associate Professor (Fayetteville)
Current University of Arkansas System employees, including student employees and graduate assistants, need to log in to Workday via MyApps.Microsoft.com, then access Find Jobs from the Workday search ...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Mind sharing the DOI? I’m curious about this one.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Hey folks, I intermittently get on social media. If you ever need me, send me a message through my contact form on my website aaroncaldwell.us
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Reposted by Aaron Caldwell
Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 03/04/2024
New article from me: “Inconsistent multiple testing corrections: The fallacy of using family-based error rates to make inferences about individual hypotheses” Open access: doi.org/10.1016/j.me... #Stats #Methodology
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 26/01/2024
You can make these mean difference plots easily in SimplyAgree aaroncaldwell.us/SimplyAgree/
aaroncaldwell.us
SimplyAgree R package
An R package for agreement and reliability estimation
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Reposted by Aaron Caldwell
Communications in Kinesiology (CiK) @cik.bsky.social · 17/01/2024
New article: "Effects of preferred versus nonpreferred music on bench press performance". By Jasmin Hutchinson, @jennymurphy2.bsky.social, et al. doi.org/10.51224/cik...
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Jenny Murphy @jennymurphy2.bsky.social · 18/01/2024
Check out our replication study as part of the larger replication project by the ssreplicationcentre.com Thanks so much to Jasmin and team for their brilliant work on this
ssreplicationcentre.com
Sports Science Replication Centre
Sports Science Replication Centre
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Reposted by Aaron Caldwell
andy™ @andylevy.net · 14/12/2023
gonna tell my grandkids this was musk’s twitter, because it was
tweet from “gentile news network”:

⚠️ HERE ARE THE RULES ⚠️ 

🚨Post a picture of a Jew.

🚨 Say "_____ is a Jew." (1st line)

🚨Include what they are known for/who they are (2nd line)

🚨 #NameThem. (3rd line)
Please post only clean images of the person i.e. no stars of David etc.

Let's get this trending. ❤️
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 08/12/2023
Also a good paper that may be useful for the scenario you described pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10734289/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Repeated measures in clinical trials: simple strategies for analysis using summary measures - PubMed
The summary measures approach to analysing repeated measures is described. The circumstances under which it can be advantageous to use such measures are considered. Strategies for baseline adjustment ...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 08/12/2023
Ah, I had forgotten about this post. I like the simplicity of his MLM approach!
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
Yup, not necessarily wrong approach either. IMHO, I’d prefer to report Glass delta (pre-intervention SD) peerj.com/articles/103...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
Yeah, it’s feature of the design (I’m guessing this is SMD of the change scores). Lack of concurrent control provides a conveniently large effect size
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
Yeah, that’s pretty much how I’d do it (at a glance)
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
So the mixed model you had but with t1 on the “right” and t2 and t3 on the “left”
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
Then I’d only include t1 as a covariate
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
When is the experimental treatment exposure? Before or after t1?
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Reposted by Aaron Caldwell
Communications in Kinesiology (CiK) @cik.bsky.social · 06/12/2023
New article: "Model specification in mixed-effects models: A focus on random effects". By Keith Lohse et al. doi.org/10.51224/cik...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 06/12/2023
No, that sounds entirely unreasonable. Are these limits for limits of agreement or an equivalence test.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
If you don't think it would be any better your conclusion/claim would be better stated as "Effect sizes are function of the experiment design and analysis approach. So describing an effect outside of the context of the experiment just is not meaningful."
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
Claim 1: "Effect size is a function of the experiment design and analysis approach as much as, if not more than, the underlying effect. So describing an effect’s Cohen’s d outside of the context of the experiment just isn’t meaningful." Is misleading the reader then, no?
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
Not sure I agree, all depends on what information/inference you are trying to make with the comparison. Let me ask you this though, what makes you think an *unstandardized* mean difference would be any better for comparing between experiments?
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
And heterogeneity does not mean the effect sizes can’t be compared. Random effects models in ma exist for a reason
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
To put it another way: if I had two different studies that used different measures with wildly different reliabilities (within subject variation) I wouldn’t be surprised by differences in the SMD.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
There are many reasons to distrust an SMD (Senn’s paper on the matter is one of my favorites). But, you aren’t even just changing the design *your changing the data generating process* which modifies the SMD. doi.org/10.1198/sbr....
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
Okay, but then your whole objective is wrong, the underlying variance structure changing would change the SMD. Regardless, the first claim is misleading.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
Use a multilevel model and use the variance components. I'd probably choose the sum of variance components but there could be argument for only using the residual variance.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
You used one specific SMD calc. One that would be inappropriate for the given data which I have mentioned in your previous posts on the topic
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
The first claim is not supported by your simulation. If you use an inappropriate standardization then *of course* it will be an ineffective measure outside the context of an individual experiment. I dislike SMDs too but this is really unfair and unsupported.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 27/11/2023
Exactly!
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 27/11/2023
100%. This is social media and more of a poking fun post. But eponyms are mostly annoying to me in practice.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 27/11/2023
SMD directly tells the reader what the value represents: a *standardized* mean difference. The methods section should then show how the standardization is accomplished.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 27/11/2023
"Just give the formula" - agreed. But, the use of "Cohen's d" or "Hedges's g" since it 1) isn't abundantly clear what those values aren't meant to represent and 2) the use of possessive nouns would imply a *specific* value/calculation (which is almost never the case).
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 27/11/2023
Can we all just agree to stop calling standardized mean differences "Cohen's d" in our scientific manuscripts? It's misleading, and IMHO leads to lazy reporting. If you want shorthand I'd recommend SMD (i.e., what Cochrane uses), and *always* report how the SMD was calculated #stats
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
Wait, wouldn’t d be equal to the t-stat if they mixed up the SE and SD?
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
I think it is also possible that they used the residual variance from the ANCOVA. That could also inflate the SMD estimate.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
I wouldn’t say it is “ambiguous” but there is a great deal of flexibility and options. But that is the case for reporting an effect size for pretty much any experimental design.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
Yeah, I’d just reported the mean difference in most scenarios from the marginal means output (I’d also model it with a random intercept and slope by subject). You could the report the SMD as mean difference over the sqrt of the sum of the variance components.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
Oh like a cross over replicate design?
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
I’m not sure exactly what you’re asking for but I’ve written about using standardized mean differences in paired samples designs peerj.com/articles/103...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 16/11/2023
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know of papers looking at the effectiveness of the bootstrap-t (studentized) CI method for standardized mean differences (e.g., Cohen's d) compared to other methods (e.g., BCa). My very brief search for papers has come up empty. #stats
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 12/11/2023
fBasics may have what you're looking for (dagoTest, maybe?) geobosh.github.io/fBasicsDoc/r...
geobosh.github.io
Tests for normality — NormalityTests
A collection of functions of one sample tests for testing normality of financial return series. The functions for testing normality are: ksnormTestKolmogorov-Smirnov normality test, shapiroTestS...
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 10/11/2023
Feel free to also reply with individual recommendations as well! I am currently focused on more resources aimed at learning applied statistics. So less math or programming (sorry rstats folks), and more on general frameworks and their applications.
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Aaron Caldwell @arcstats.bsky.social · 10/11/2023
Is there a list somewhere out there for open source/access teaching/learning resources for statistics? Currently trying to create a document organizing all these resources for when I start teaching next semester #stats ☺️
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