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Archie Hall

@archiehall.bsky.social
37.1K followers 968 following 837 posts

Writing for The Economist—mostly on the US economy, with occasional forays elsewhere. Recreational Britain-watcher. Previous lives in macro investing and polling. Substack at: notes.archie-hall.com

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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
And those links, again: www.economist.com/united-stat... www.economist.com/podcasts/20...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
So, however mad you expect AI as a technology to make the next few years, scale that up accordingly to account for a much more scrambled politics.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
5/ What the data-centre issue should tell us, I think, is that voters' hostility to new technologies that change their lives in unpleasant ways is vast—especially when those changes are less positive-sum than data centres.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
4/ The question I'm left with is what comes after data centres as the big AI political issue into next year. A few obvious candidates are: a big cyberattack, the sheer scale of AI-related PAC spending in the 2028 cycle, the early innings of job displacement.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
3/ Still, moratoriums are at this stage much more bark than bite (h/t Maya Barkin of SemiAnalysis for data). Only about 2GW seems actually delayed. The bigger risk is deterring newer projects, but I'd still guess that affects the exact locations more than whether the build-out happens at all.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
Against that backdrop, assurances about the water usage of closed-loop cooling systems really don't cut through. And, though developers will doubtless get cannier at this, cash payoffs to communities can easily look like subterfuge and do little to help.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
2/ I really didn't hear that much direct anti-AI sentiment. The mood much more was a cocktail of worries about local harms (water, electricity bills, house prices), plus a total distrust of businesses and politicians.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
1/ The issue really is moving votes to the Democrats. That's now visible in our polling, too (h/t @owenwntr.bsky.social), but also in the scale of on-the-ground discontent. I'm quite a bit more bearish on the prospects for big new data-centre projects in blue states after the trip.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 14h
I spent last week travelling through data-centre country in Michigan/Ohio for @economist.com. Some rough reflections in a 🧵 below, alongside a piece here: www.economist.com/united-stat... And an audio diary for our Checks and Balance podcast: www.economist.com/podcasts/20...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
“Do not ‘let it rip’” I walk through why the no-rules approach to AI has now run its course in a new leader for @economist.com. Whatever its merits several years ago, ‘let it rip’ is now a dead end—politically infeasible and intellectually unserious. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
economist.com
A no-rules approach to AI is mad politics and worse policy
Do not let it rip
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Reposted by Archie Hall
Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Friday Follow: Five Substacks that deserve to be better known. - notes.archie-hall.com - @archiehall.bsky.social - writing.ersatzben.com - Ben Johnson - soumayakeynes.substack.com - @soumayakeynes.ft.com - www.neilobrien.co.uk - Neil O'Brien - willorrewing.substack.com - Will Orr-Ewing
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
And my own look at AI writing in politics www.economist.com/britain/2026...
economist.com
AI-written speeches are taking over politics
British MPs are avid users. But they have nothing on Australians or Canadians
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Best read alongside this great piece by Catherine Nixey, also in this week's edition www.economist.com/britain/2026...
economist.com
AI often makes writing worse. (Even if it makes it better)
Why is complicated. But it’s not about the damn em-dash
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
New @economist.com leader from me on the perils of AI writing—and why readers, not writers, are the victims to worry most about. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Based on Callum Williams' analysis here: House prices survived the last rise in interest rates. Will they this time? economist.com/finance-and-... from The Economist
economist.com
House prices survived the last rise in interest rates. Will they this time?
Supports that shored up the housing market when borrowing costs last rose are gone
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New @economist.com leader from me on housing markets, and the rate shock coming if bond yields stay high. Why house prices may be in trouble economist.com/leaders/2026...
economist.com
Why house prices may be in trouble
In a big serving of bad news, there are crumbs of comfort
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Reposted by Archie Hall
Matthew Holehouse @matthewholehouse.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
All the debate about MPs' "second jobs", and yet we don't really have consensus as to what the purpose of their first one is
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Plenty more in the piece as ever, which you can see here: www.economist.com/britain/202...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
3/ People can, I think, reasonably disagree about whether this is a problem. (I think it is.) But British voters hate it. Public First ran some polling for us, and found that approval of AI writing on the job is lower for politicians than any other profession.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
2/ Among British parties, the Liberal Democrats seem to give the most AI speeches. Labour's number is flattered a bit to the downside, since ministers rarely do. Among backbenchers, it is in second place. The 2024 intake are particularly enthusiastic AI-speechwriting-adopters.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
1/ This is bottom-up, not top-down, and reflects choices MPs (and their staff) are making. I spoke to several. Reactions ran the gamut from denial to defence: "for every half hour saved on speechwriting, 'that is another 30 minutes we can put into supporting my constituents.'"
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My latest for @economist.com: AI writing is taking over politics. 10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada. Link: www.economist.com/britain/202... And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
"Time to hike" New @economist.com leader on why Warsh should raise rates next week. The economic case is solid (high inflation, solid jobs market), but the institutional case clinches it—Warsh has the chance to put worries about his independence to bed. www.economist.com/leaders/202...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Lots more, including some strained wildlife metaphors, in the full piece, which you can read here www.economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
Central banking has a forbidding future
But Kevin Warsh has bought himself time
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
— The combination of politics chewing away at faith in expertise and fiscal woes making central-bank capture more tempting is a nasty one. — And, as with everything, central banking is grappling with how AI might affect it, especially re financial stability. Early conclusions are not heartening.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
New column reflecting on Jackson Hole and the state of central banking — Warsh did enough, surpassing low expectations — Rogoff was more interesting. He declared victory against "macro woke 1" (secular stagnation = low rates), warned of "macro woke 2" (AI fixes all) www.economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
Central banking has a forbidding future
But Kevin Warsh has bought himself time
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
— The speech had none of Warsh's earlier optimism about AI-induced disinflation, which has looked a lot less plausible as the short-run inflationary consequences of the data centre buildout have become clearer.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
— This probably wasn't the speech Warsh wanted to give: in July he said his plan was to step back and think through the big issues. There was some of that on AI, but framed mostly as questions, not conclusions.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
— Unlike Warsh's first two press conferences, this was a speech you could imagine any central banker giving: walking through the two sides of the dual mandate, and tipping his hand that inflation looked more worrying. But don't call it a reaction function...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
"Kevin Warsh tries being a normal central banker" A few initial Jackson Hole impressions, written w/ my colleague Alex Domash. Some quick notes in thread. But you can read our full piece here: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
"America will regret Scott Bessent's bond-market misadventures" New @economist.com leader from me, on whether America has just taken a first, tentative step towards a politicised Treasury market and financial repression. You can read here: www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
economist.com
America will regret Scott Bessent’s bond-market misadventures
But expect them to continue, so long as government debt stays high
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Underrated story: the Trump admin seeming to use Fannie and Freddie to push mortgage spreads down. (Some of the recent decline also reflects falling bond vol, of course.) Discussed more here: www.economist.com/finance-and...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Weekend read from me on the shenanigans on the Treasury market—and the problems Scott Bessent is dumping on Kevin Warsh Link: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
Is Scott Bessent the Fed chair Donald Trump always wanted?
But his effort to talk bond yields lower is likely to fail
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Perhaps! Maybe a conversation best not had in social media snippets
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
James I’m a fan of your writing (and you may not remember, but you kindly spoke at a conference I organised in university a decade ago), so I mean this generously, but that’s a facially silly comparison.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Deeper question re other bits is basically how the state should interact with others’ political beliefs. I hear you on the paradox of tolerance but we’re long way off that here. This all has much more the whiff of the MAGA anti-ESG crusade, at least to me
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Is having healthcare be state-run is a foundational British value? That gets us to quite funky places, like Britain being un-British in 1944. (And a company’s chairman wanting healthcare to be markets-ier is hardly beyond the pale.)
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Which values of the British state?
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
That’s precisely the point, no? This wouldn’t be contentious if Palantir’s leadership was apolitical. What makes this case revelatory of who does and doesn’t take their liberalism seriously is exactly that plenty in government might find Thiel (and to a degree Karp) to have beliefs they dislike…
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
BRITAIN WOULD BE BONKERS TO DITCH PALANTIR New @economist.com leader from me on Palantir. I most wanted to highlight its critics' troubling illiberalism—many seem far too blasé letting politics determine which businesses governments buy from. You can read it here: www.economist.com/leaders/202...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
How doomed are sovereign AI efforts? What can third countries do to escape total dependence on the US and China? My bid: diffusion, deregulation and data centres, as I lay out in a leader in this week's @economist.com. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
economist.com
How to make AI safe—and lessen dependence on America and China
State-backed efforts to catch up with frontier models are doomed
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
New leader from me in @economist.com—on Trump Accounts, which launched last weekend. $1,000 per baby won't solve America's inequality. Deficit-funded stock-buying is hardly sound fiscal policy. But... beneath all that gold is the seed of a good idea. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
economist.com
Two cheers for Trump Accounts
The grubby scheme contains the seeds of a good idea
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
And the original "We woz wrong" from 1999 www.economist.com/christmas-s...
economist.com
We woz wrong
Newspapers are quick to crow about their predictive triumphs. But what about when they are wrong? The editor of The Economist owns up to our recent, er, disappointments and explains why forecasts are so often wrong
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Best digested with Henry Curr's accompanying leader www.economist.com/leaders/202...
economist.com
We woz wrong about oil
The market bested us. But for The Economist, there is no shame in that
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
IS THE ECONOMIST ALWAYS WRONG? Scandalously, in some circles @economist.com has a reputation as a contrarian indicator. This week we fessed up to getting a big call on oil prices wrong. But in general, how do we do? I threw LLMs at 7,000 leaders to find out: Link: www.economist.com/interactive...
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
4/ The good news: sensible regulation looks doable. And there are plenty of precedents from regulatory history for handling complex technologies that could be dangerously misused.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
3/ Long-term lockups of frontier capabilities still look like a bad idea: a wide gulf between the publicly-available frontier and the private one worsens safety risks.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
2/ But this administration does happily pursue policies against America's economic and strategic interests: just look at tariffs and Greenland. Assume fights like the one over Fable continue.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
1/ The outside option of Chinese models and the need for foreign users to fund data centre capex ought to discipline America from overly abusing its newfound sovereign power over AI.
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
AMERICA SHOULD NOT IMPRISON FRONTIER AI I have a leader in @economist.com this week on the lessons from Fable, for America and everybody else. A few core ideas in a thread below, and you can read the full leader here: www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
economist.com
America should not imprison frontier AI
Fable is free. But the technology desperately needs better regulations
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