iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

We often think of transportation infrastructure as a key driver of economic growth. And that’s true. But it also has a big environmental footprint -- one that’s often underestimated.

2106

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Khoa @khoavuumn.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

Synthetic Control Method be like

51327

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

We wrote a short summary for @voxdev.bsky.social here 👉 voxdev.org/topic/energy...

040

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

This kind of evidence matters. If we care about protecting the Amazon while supporting development, we need better tools to measure the real impacts of infrastructure -- and design smarter policies.

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

The big takeaway? It’s not just about what happens near the road/railroad/port itself. The deforestation footprint is spatially complex, spreading in ways that standard impact assessments often miss.

110

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

In our new paper, just published in the Journal of Development Economics -- with the brilliant Juliano Assunção and @arthurbraganca7.bsky.social -- we look at how roads, railroads, and waterways affect deforestation in the Amazon.

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

We often think of transportation infrastructure as a key driver of economic growth. And that’s true. But it also has a big environmental footprint -- one that’s often underestimated.

2106

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Bård Harstad @bardharstad.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

My pleasure! Thank you, @araujocrrafael.bsky.social, @franciscocosta.bsky.social, and Sant'Anna, for responding carefully, and ConGrat with an important publication ‪@reveconstudies.bsky.social

041

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 18/05/2025

Our paper on Amazon deforestation is out! Grateful to everyone who helped along the way. I'd like to highlight one thing that made a huge difference: clear and thoughtful guidance from the editor.

0277

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Erik Ansink @erikansink.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

Just a few days left to apply to this 3-year postdoc position in environmental economics at @vusbe.bsky.social to work with me on the economics of water management (drought, contract design, nature based solutions, experiments, etc). Application deadline: May 15. workingat.vu.nl/vacancies/po...

workingat.vu.nl

Vacancy — Post-doc in Environmental Economics

A Postdoctoral Fellow position is available at the Department of Spatial Economics at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, starting in Fall 2025. Are you interested? Please apply at Vrije Universiteit Amster...

01010

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Bruno Ferman @brunoferman.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

🧵New survey paper: "Inference with Few Treated Units" Luis Alvarez, Bruno Ferman and Kaspar Wüthrich Tired of referees saying your standard errors are wrong? This survey will help you understand if you really have a problem — and, if so, how to fix it!

15714

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

We highlight that our proposed methodology can be used in many empirical contexts. To employ our partial identification strategy, we only require an exogenous mismeasured treatment variable and two exogenous proxies.

media.tenor.com

a teddy bear is dancing in a kitchen in a happy dance costume .

ALT: a teddy bear is dancing in a kitchen in a happy dance costume .

000

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

However, our method reaches very different conclusions when compared to the findings of Nunn and Qian (2011) and Acharya et al. (2016). In particular, we find that the impact of agricultural productivity may be smaller than previously reported.

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

To illustrate our methodology, we reevaluate the results of three empirical studies: Nunn and Qian (2011), Bustos et al. (2016) and Acharya et al. (2016). We find that the results by Bustos et al. (2016) are robust to measurement error.

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

We derive bounds around the true linear effect of crop productivity on the outcome of interest. These bounds exhaust all the information contained in the first two moments of the data distribution and have intuitive closed-form solutions.

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

We propose to partially identify the effect of crop productivity in a linear model with two proxies that are subject to nonclassical measurement error. We impose that the true unobservable productivity is exogenous and that its effect on the outcome is non-negative.

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

We document the possibility of measurement error in the GAEZ variables. Their versions differ with respect to calibrated parameters and sources of data. These differences cause large changes in productivity for many crops and regions, suggesting the existence of mismeasurement.

There are two images here, on the left it shows a map of Brazil with the difference between versions 3 and 4 of FAO-GAEZ data for soybeans. On the right it shows a scatter plot of the data.

There are two images here, on the left it shows a map of the South of the US with the difference between versions 3 and 4 of FAO-GAEZ data for cotton. On the right it shows a scatter plot of the data.

There are two images here, on the left it shows a map of the Old World with the difference between versions 3 and 4 of FAO-GAEZ data for potato. On the right it shows a scatter plot of the data.

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Measurement error in the FAO-GAEZ data is rarely recognized in the empirical literature and is not properly addressed by current statistical methods. We propose a novel method that partially identifies the effect of crop productivity while accounting for measurement error.

media.tenor.com

a man is measuring a piece of wood with a tape measure while a dog looks on

ALT: a man is measuring a piece of wood with a tape measure while a dog looks on

100

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

The impact of crop productivity on economic outcomes is important in many fields. The most common measure of crop productivity is the FAO-GAEZ measure. However, this measure is based on a prediction model and is subject to measurement error.

this is a picture of the abstract of the paper. The FAO-GAEZ crop productivity data are widely used in Economics. However, the existence of measurement error is rarely recognized in the empirical literature. We propose a novel method to partially identify the effect of agricultural productivity, deriving bounds that allow for nonclassical measurement error by leveraging two proxies. These bounds exhaust all the information contained in the first two moments of the data. We reevaluate three influential studies, documenting that measurement error matters and that the impact of agricultural productivity on economic outcomes may be smaller than previously reported. Our methodology has broad applications in empirical research involving mismeasured variables.

100

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Pedro Sant’Anna @pedrosantanna.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

I've decided to collect my DiD materials in a single place. psantanna.com/did-resources There, you will find - 14 lectures of my comprehensive DiD course - Shorter lectures/talks I have given on DiD - My DiD R/Stata/Python packages - Some DiD checklists - DiD materials from my friends Enjoy!

psantanna.com

Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna

23461145

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Pedro Sant’Anna @pedrosantanna.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

I am thinking of making my DiD materials that I used for teaching in the last 5 years available. I am hoping these would find begineers in need of a step-by-step opinionated walkthrough of several developments Let’s see if I find the energy to do this!

1526834

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

After many iterations my paper on endogenous climate in deforestation modeling is reborn! (an amazing photo from the one and only Sebastião Salgado:)

The figure shows a massive rainfall event over the Amazon Rainforest. The picture, in black and white, highlights the composition of the clouds, the rainfall, and the forest.

2229

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Manuel Linsenmeier @mlinsenmeier.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

What a paper! Interdisciplinary env econ research at its best.

131

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Brenda Prallon @brendaprallon.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Rafa’s work has some of my favorite examples of serious economic theory + relevant policy question + super cool data. check it out!

121

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

or directly here: rafaelcraraujo.github.io/assets/paper...

rafaelcraraujo.github.io

020

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Main takeaway: We can make economics and natural sciences work together. Doing so reveals new insights about our environment and how we impact it.

120

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Natural sciences have studied these mechanisms for decades but economics can also bring new lessons. When farmers reoptimize their crop choices in response to climate shifts, economic outcomes shift too.

This figure shows two overlapped histograms showing the distribution of returns in scenarios with and without adaptation. The distribution of the scenario with adaptation is significantly to the right of the distribution of the scenario without adaptation.

120

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Take the Xingu Indigenous Territories (can you spot it?), removing Xingu’s protection status expands agricultural land but worsens the climate. Ignoring climate feedback would miss the bigger picture: 40% of the agricultural gains from deforestation are offset by climate feedback.

The figure shows a satellite image constrating a large green patch of forest (the Xingu) surrounded by large brown patches of agricultural land.

120

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Why does this matter? I apply the model to the Amazon, focusing on how protecting indigenous territories impacts agriculture. Flying rivers operate over long distances, meaning deforestation policies create a network of winners and losers

This figure shows two maps of the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso. One, on the left, shows the impact of Xingu's deforestation on forest cover. The scale varies from a zero effect to 10%+. On the right, the maps shows the impact of deforestation on the expected return. The scale varies from 0 to -20%-. The spatial pattern in both maps is that the center of the state, a region close to the Xingu, is the most affected region.

120

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

“Does one exist?” I build a model where agricultural productivity depends on climate, and climate depends on deforestation. I show that equilibrium exists and show conditions for this thing to be a contraction.

This figure is a drawing showing three people dressed as spider-man pointing at each other. Each spider-man is labeled as "best response".

120

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

In the tropics, agriculture drives deforestation, but it also depends on a stable climate, which is in part maintained by forests. This feedback creates a delicate equilibrium... if one exists.

The figure shows a satellite image contrasting a small patch of green forest with large patches of brown agricultural land.

120

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Since the 1980s, we’ve known that rainforests like the Amazon can massively influence climate. Without it, 30% of South America's rainfall would disappear. This “flying rivers” mechanism—where trees’ transpiration creates rain hundreds of kilometers away—is crucial yet often overlooked.

120

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Climate is endogenous—people impact it, and it impacts people. Yet, aside from emissions-focused work, research is sparse, especially in deforestation.

130

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

After many iterations my paper on endogenous climate in deforestation modeling is reborn! (an amazing photo from the one and only Sebastião Salgado:)

2229

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

Eugenie Dugoua @eugeniedugoua.bsky.social · 25/08/2024

And here is Energy & Env Econ Volume 2: bsky.app/starter-pack...

12512

Rafael Araujo @araujocrrafael.bsky.social · 24/08/2024

Thanks for this. I'd appreciate if you could add me

010

Reposted by Rafael Araujo

JAERE @jaereaere.bsky.social · 02/08/2024

"Going Viral: Public Attention and Environmental Action in the Amazon" by Rafael Araujo (@araujocrrafael.bsky.social), Francisco Costa (@franciscocosta.bsky.social), and Teevrat Garg (@teevrat.bsky.social) was just accepted at JAERE. Read more here: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

051