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Antônio Sampaio

@antoniosamp.bsky.social
140 followers 198 following 57 posts

Independent researcher and PhD candidate at the War Studies Department, King's College London. Focused on urban safety, violence prevention, crime and conflict. Previously Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, IISS. Former journalist.

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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The EU is weaving resilience into every project: thinking about how what you’re building will withstand climate shocks and shifts in future: HE Anthony Agotha, Special Envoy for Climate and Energy Security, EEAS. #BCSC2026
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
We’re seeing at least a decade-long increase in defence spending and de tease in climate action: Snr Fellow, @cfr.org at #BCSC2026
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
‘Defence is an ever-present topic in Finland not just for government but also in people’s lives’: Kerstin Stendahl, Special Envoy on Environment Security, Finland. #BCSC2026
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
How can cities tackle public security amid climate change? I will speak on this at the Berlin Climate & Security Conference on 06 October. I'll share findings from a project w/ UN Climate Security Mechanism. #BCSC2026 @climate.diplo.bsky.social berlin-climate-security-conference.de/en/bcsc-2026...
berlin-climate-security-conference.de
BCSC 2026: Building inclusive and peaceful cities on the frontlines of climate change
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
‘Illiberal leaders worldwide target cities because they often act as strongholds of democracy: fertile ground for popular opposition figures and movements, alternative centers of political power’ @ambnina.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The Autocrat’s Worst Enemy
Despots hate cities and the mayors who run them.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Yo comento para @es.france24.com el aspecto político del "Escudo de las Américas” lanzado por Estados Unidos contra el crimen organizado en América Latina. www.france24.com/es/am%C3%A9r...
france24.com
"Escudo de las Américas”: ¿una mano dura antidrogas de Trump sin contar con México ni Colombia?
Donald Trump anunció este sábado 7 de marzo la creación del “Escudo de las Américas”, una coalición militar regional destinada a combatir a los carteles del narcotráfico. La iniciativa reúne a una doc...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The installation of military assets in urban areas places civilian housing and infrastructure at the frontline of armed conflict. Armed forces should consider the long-term damage and grievances that housing destruction causes.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
In a new report, I examine the ways in which climate change is increasing organised crime in cities. I cover three areas: - Human trafficking in rural-to-urban migration; - Water scarcity and mafias; - Land grab, illegal construction and corruption globalinitiative.net/analysis/a-c...
globalinitiative.net
A climate of insecurity: Climate change and organized crime in cities
This report examines the intersection of climate change and organized crime in cities. The relationship between these issues is a critical area for policy and programming in governments and multilater...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Got my hands on the physical version of this important book - a must-read for everyone trying to understand the vulnerability of urban communities to long-term patterns of violence. @stanleycenter.org
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
My goodness. Words of Stephen Miller, influential Trump adviser: “We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power (…)These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
nytimes.com
Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Interesting that in The Atlantic interview Trump says the ‘Donroe’ doctrine - kidnap threat against heads of state that displease him - is not restricted to Western hemisphere. It applies to any country that he decides it should.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
If Trump’s claim that Venezuelan VP has been talking to US about handing in power to a steering group of sorts led by Trump, this would be (I believe) unprecedented in world history: an overnight special ops mission resulting in the takeover of a country without boots on the ground.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
So that’s interesting. Trump said Rubio had a conversation with Delcy Rodrigues and that she is willing to cooperate with this steering group he’s putting together.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
And many congrats to @stanleycenter.org and @peaceinourcities.org for the fantastic thought leadership on this idea and its many policy implications.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
My chapter explores exclusionary boundaries - how invisible borders in cities become activated when conflict escalates, turning into a matter of life or death for communities. link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
It's wonderful to see this groundbreaking edited volume out - and the digital version is FREE! The book introduces identity-based urban violence - types of violence that disproportionately affect certain groups concetrated in urban areas. link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
link.springer.com
Identity-Based Mass Violence in Urban Contexts
This open access edited book brings together research and creative contributions to explore a new concept of identity-based mass violence in urban contexts
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
I had the honour of contributing to this incredible volume by the Inter-American Development Bank on Amazonian cities. Gabriel Funari and I describe how urbanisation is affecting security in the Amazon, and point to potential policy solutions. publications.iadb.org/en/cities-am...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
There is growing concern about climate change intensifying security risks, especially crime. But in current global context security policies need to do + w/ - resources. Challenging issues at #BCSC Berlin Climate and Security Conference.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Siege of El Fasher city in Sudan: 'More than 90% reported their homes had been destroyed, damaged or looted before they fled'. www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
theguardian.com
Thousands trapped in El Fasher siege on ‘edge of survival’, says report
The city – the Sudanese army’s last stronghold in the west of the country – has withstood more than 500 days of attacks by paramilitary RSF
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
This story and this picture are so important for us to understand violence. The boundaries between us vs them can turn even ‘ordinary’ ppl into murderers. apple.news/AM-NKeTpzQvK...
apple.news
The shocking truth about the photograph of the ‘ordinary’ Nazi and its chilling message for us today — The Independent
It is the picture which showed the true horror of the second-world war – a man blithely shooting Jewish prisoners and watching them fall into a mass grave. His identity has finally been revealed and i...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Had the pleasure of contributing to Monocle Radio, commenting on the top stories today w/ @andrewmueller.bsky.social @burcuozcelik.bsky.social. Particularly important discussion on the impact of urban warfare on Gaza.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
My views on how the practice of violence prevention can better adapt to contexts affected by organised crime: globalinitiative.net/analysis/loc...
globalinitiative.net
Strong local institutions and governance are key to preventing violence and organized crime in cities
Armed violence in our communities is a pervasive problem that has damaged public trust in institutions in countries ranging from El Salvador to Sweden. The impact of violence on people’s lives and on ...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Really interesting study of how criminal governance can emerge in a UK city: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
The relationship between social order and crime in Nottingham, England - Nature Cities
This study used a mixed-methods approach to map out crime patterns over time in Nottingham. It found that the district of Bestwood, the site of a large governance-type organized crime group, has lower...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
The increasing occurrence urban warfare is one aspect of a broader trend: the blurring between warfare and civilian life. @2eatsoup.bsky.social writes a great think piece for @icrc.org on how the use of technology is allowing these two spheres to come even closer: blogs.icrc.org/law-and-poli...
blogs.icrc.org
The shifting battlefield: technology, tactics, and the risk of blurring lines in warfare - Humanitarian Law & Policy Blog
The accelerating integration of emerging technologies into armed conflict is transforming not only the tools of war, but its tactics, geography, participants and impact. Technological developments – f...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
It’s Friday and even before I finish work I got a treat: this dog sitting next to me in a cafe came to say hi several times. Why can’t life (and humans!) be as simple as dogs?
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Excavators are an integral part of current military activities in Gaza - the role of urban destruction for control of cities in current urban war is high (also seen in Syria by Assad regime). www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Gazans Once Escaped To Rafah. Now Israel Is Razing It.
In the last few weeks, Israel has demolished extensive areas of Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
As a @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social PGR student, I am supporting this: chng.it/SCV27VmhPJ
chng.it
Full Pedestrianisation of Strand
Can you spare a minute to help this campaign?
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
A grim picture. www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
theguardian.com
Trump’s first 100 days supercharged a global ‘freefall of rights’, says Amnesty
World now in era of repressive regimes’ impunity, climate inaction and unchecked corporate power, says report
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
The problem is not so much attacks on Maiduguri, but the insecurity of the myriad small and medium towns around it. They are all connected, and attacks in one sector or major road affect all of them. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
theguardian.com
Fears of Boko Haram comeback stir in Nigerian birthplace of Maiduguri
Threat from jihadists had widely been perceived to be extinguished, but recent clashes suggest otherwise
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Khartoum residents speak of widespread fear, looting and rape during RSF forces' presence in the city, which is one of Africa's largest and has just been recovered by Sadanese military. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/w...
nytimes.com
Paramilitary Fighters Flee Sudan’s Capital, a Major Shift in Civil War
In dramatic scenes that appear to mark a turning point in nearly two years of civil war, Sudan’s military is driving fighters of its rival, the Rapid Support Forces, out of Khartoum.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Not another war, please. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/w...
nytimes.com
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Wonderful rainbow on my way home today. London does have its weather wonders.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Link to the report just launched by @wateraid.bsky.social washmatters.wateraid.org/publications...
washmatters.wateraid.org
Water and climate: Rising risks for urban populations | WASH Matters
Water extremes put cities at risk. This report highlights how the cities facing the worst climate impacts are often those with the highest social vulnerability
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Cities are at the forefront of climate risks and disasters in the current climate crisis: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Flood and drought risk increasing in cities, according to study
WaterAid worked with the University of Bristol and Cardiff University on the climate hazard research.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
I’m also happy to see States of Fragility has cited our GI-TOC reports examining organised crime activities linked to urbanisation, including infiltration into transport hubs, housing and land crimes and territorial control. globalinitiative.net/initiatives/...
globalinitiative.net
Cities & Illicit Economies | GI-TOC
Organized crime and illicit economies have a profound impact on urban governance and the security of the increasing share of the global population living in cities.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
The @oecd-ocde.bsky.social States of Fragility 2025 report reflects the increasing global concern with urban insecurity. It says rapid urbanisation requires urgent attention to security provision and offers opportunities for organised crime in cities. www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
oecd.org
States of Fragility 2025
States of Fragility 2025 considers a world of shifting power dynamics, where the most severe impacts of crisis, conflict and instability converge in the 61 contexts identified with high and extreme fr...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
What better news could China get today than that the largest country in Latin America is deeply concerned about tariffs on its steel exports to the US? Brazil is a top exporter and the tariffs would be a watershed moment for the bilateral relationship. oglobo.globo.com/economia/not...
oglobo.globo.com
Especialistas analisam ameaça de Trump de taxar aço: como fica o Brasil?
Presidente americano afirmou neste domingo que vai anunciar tarifas de 25% sobre aço e alumínio nesta segunda-feira; Brasil está entre os maiores fornecedores de aço para os EUA
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Urban areas are once again the frontlines of conflict in Sudan. This means more fighting in densely inhabited areas, more urban infrastrucutre and housing that will have to be rebuilt and more displacement to other urban areas unprepared to cope. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...
theguardian.com
Sudanese military reports sweeping gains in battle for capital
Army making rapid advances across the country and closing in on RSF-held Republican Palace in Khartoum
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Of course, disruptive national actors (Russia) are still around. But many challenges, from climate to crime and terror, depend on development at local level. The drivers and impact of conflict, crime, terror and migration will worsen with US aid reduction.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
With so much attention paid to the grand halls of diplomacy and geopolitics, it’s easy to forget that security, peace and stability are largely locally-driven dynamics.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
The gutting of US aid may well be one of the most impactful events in global politics, security and stability in years. apple.news/ALIe_0gc-QJO...
apple.news
Halt in US aid cripples global efforts to relieve hunger — Reuters
The Trump administration’s effort to slash and reshape American foreign aid is crippling the intricate global system that aims to prevent and respond to famine.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
The study of urbicide and (problematic) postconflict urban reconstruction has a bright future ahead of it. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Why does Donald Trump want to take over Gaza and could he do it?
The president's vision for a Gaza under US control could upend the future of Middle East relations.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Militaries have always been wary of operating in urban terrain due to ambushes and complexity. Drones do away with many of these fear, making them less reticent about striking cities.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
The potential (some would say likely) proliferation of combat drones poses a human security risk to densely inhabited areas. warontherocks.com/2025/02/the-... @warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com
The Coming Wave of Wartime Drone Expertise - War on the Rocks
On Aug. 4, 2018, a drone exploded over Avenida Bolívar in Caracas during a speech by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. A second drone crashed and
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Reposted by Antônio Sampaio
Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 03/02/2025
I suspect USAID is first because it's "foreign aid" and fewer Americans will object. But once the precedent is established, expect unilateral dismantling of domestic institutions too
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
It's often secondary cities and towns that suffer from conflict in rural areas. This seems to be the case with illicit economies and combat around Goma and Rubaya, DRC: globalinitiative.net/analysis/m23...
globalinitiative.net
How organized crime fuels the M23 crisis in eastern DRC
M23's economic agenda also dictated the May 2024 seizure of Rubaya, a strategic mining town near Goma that produces 15 per cent of the world's coltan, a key component in the manufacture of electronic ...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
apple.news/A8LiwpjszTUi...
apple.news
UN says Congo's M23 conflict could spark regional war — Reuters
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that Congo's M23 conflict risks spiralling into a broader regional war as Congolese troops battle a rebel advance near the largest eastern city and t...
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
One more city to add to the long list of those in war today: Goma, in the DRC, is again the site of battles between gov and M23 for control of strategic site of mining region.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
This has immense political and economic implications - people's houses and small businesses are often the concrete results of lifetime investments and the most valuable possession individuals possess. The destruction of cities undermines peace and development.
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Antônio Sampaio @antoniosamp.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Behind the personal tragedies unfolding in Gaza, this story is a very concrete evidence of urbicide - the destruction not 'only' of lives or buildings but of cities and communities. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/w...
nytimes.com
One Family in Gaza Returned Home. But Home Was Gone.
“It took us a few minutes to accept that this pile of rubble was our home,” said Islam Dahliz, whose family was ordered by Israeli forces to evacuate Rafah in May.
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