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We still have further to go on rebuilding metropolitan government in London so long as Shrek squats in County Hall

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For sure yeah. For me the big takeaway is the simple argument you often hear that "it's good for the economy" isn't right as it's actually highly contingent (not least for things not really related to immigration policy ie our 'liberal' non contributory welfare state)

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Isn't this besides the point? Maybe the data is optimistic or more mixed on current trajectory. But the argument here is really that any positive fiscal impact of immigrant households depends on women doing paid work + that work being high paid given design of our welfare state

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Migration, Household Employment & Europe’s Public Finances

Underlying paper is here - will be taking a look today siepr.stanford.edu/publications...

siepr.stanford.edu

Other

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Some great charts in this Given our welfare system is not very contributory, big Qs for British policymakers here on how we get more women into paid work if we want immigration to be fiscally positive

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Thanks. We did consider it but the problem is both the taxbases and the existing commitments vary. We think the transitional problem is actually quite tricky but we do want to get to consistency and working the equalisation system harder in the medium term

Maurice Lange @mauricelange.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Reposted by Ant Breach

A seriously impressive and useful report out today from my colleagues @oscarselby.bsky.social and @antbreach.bsky.social They've worked out how fiscal devolution can start in a fair and growth incentivising way, in superb technical detail. Give it a read 👇

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Making electricity cheaper would seem to be a precondition to get people to use more electricity

Oscar Selby @oscarselby.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Reposted by Ant Breach

Fiscal devolution for mayors: the government have announced it, here is how to do it: 1. Switch mayor's Integrated Settlements (grants) to a share of income and corporation tax - where 90% of funding is income tax and 10% is corporation tax.

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Crucially, all this sets up nicely for further rounds of fiscal devo to resolve some of the unanswered Qs in local finance, especially councils Most important in near term is getting consistent tax shares for the mayors, paid for by getting equalisation system to work harder:

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Wrapping this all up, our recommendations are to initially vary income tax and corporation tax sharing, have a Swiss-style equalisation system for income tax but let corpo receipts float, bridge the IS commitments, and begin next step of BR devolution:

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Business rates is also being devolved. In most places it's split between Government (purple) and LAs. The biggest opportunity here is getting rid of all the purple (outside London) and letting mayors/councils keep all BR and growth through 'resets' that currently clawback funding

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By 2030, and assuming growth remains at historical levels, we get outcomes that look like this: pretty similar pounds per head in funding between places. If places do get a stronger growth incentive and grow faster, the Mayor and HMT both get the upside:

Our view is that the Swiss-style system should be permanent. But there's a transitional problem remaining with the commitments in the Integrated Settlements - we recommend the tariffs be set at a level to fund separate guarantees for these commitments that fall away after 2030:

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Our solution to this is to introduce a "Swiss-style" funding system that tops up places to a minimum floor on £ per person, funded by an incremental tariff on places above a different threshold - so the mayors always have an incentive to grow but are protected

But the mayors' taxbases grow at different rates over time - how can we guarantee fairness in light of this? Especially as lots of these changes don't reflect differences in underlying local economies, but national tax and macro policy:

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As a result, if we initially vary the share of income tax the mayors get to keep - and a small crumb of corporation tax to provide a very sharp growth incentive - we can replace the funding mayors get like-for-like on day one. bsky.app/profile/cent...

It's also the case that grants vary across the country too - but not by as much. On a per-person basis, the Integrated Settlement (a consolidated super-grant for the mayors) gives similar amounts of funding per person between mayors (London has a slightly different arrangement)

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But how do we make this work when taxbases already vary so much across the country? Just look at income tax - 1% of income tax in London raises £90 per person in London, but £23 in Tees Valley:

Our solution is this: introduce a Swiss-style equalisation system for income tax that tops places up to a minimum floor of this funding, but allow places to keep growth in a share of their corporation tax and their business rates base to give sharp incentives:

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The core challenge for the Government is this trade-off - how can the a local finance system 1) reward places for improving their local economy, while 2) ensuring that places that don't can still provide decent services. Currently the system doesn't really care about 1)

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Ant Breach @antbreach.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Our new report does the numbers on fiscal devolution. By letting the metro mayors keep around 7% of their local income tax (2% in London) and 2% of their local corporation tax (1% in London), we can replace grants in a growth-positive, cost-neutral way for HMT and the mayors:

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@richardaljones.bsky.social hi Richard - hope all well. Would like to DM you about a research project we're working on at CFC - could you follow me back please so I could drop you a message? - Ant

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Sure, but I'm talking about Europe and the UK

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Doesn't the chart above show there are pretty big differences in prices across the globe

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Yeah - it points to diversification of LNG export sources and more LNG import infrastructure as being an important way of making energy cheaper in the medium run

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Doesn't this chart that Europe would have much more cheap energy if it had much greater LNG capacity

Matthew Holehouse @matthewholehouse.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Reposted by Ant Breach

A heartfelt plea for a little help from struggling family firms like uh Greene King and Marriott International (market cap: $90bn)

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Sam @samd.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Won't this just increase the price of haircuts during a cost of living crisis?

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Reposted by Ant Breach

fantastic article about an underappreciated housing villain, NIMBY preservationists the funniest part is that another prominent NIMBY just launched a 24-tweet screed against this article, simultaneously decrying the lack of decorum and complaining about the “YIMBY bros cult”

Layla Law-Gisiko *afi @laylaLa...•2h @
22/ So, my question is: can we have a sound and well articulated debate about housing, zoning and preservation without the use of rhetorical tricks such as straw man, false dilemma, post hoc causation, cherry-picking, metric switching, and appeal to ridicule?
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Layla Law-Gisiko *eafi @laylaLa...•2h O
23/ Descartes had a useful rule: accept as true only what one clearly knows to be so. Urban policy could use a little more of that, and a little less certainty veiling for evidence.
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Layla Law-Gisiko 5afi @laylaLa... 2h $ ...
Ad extremumm/ @GVSHP Village Preservation and its ED Andrew Berman must have rattled the YIMBY bros cult pretty badly. LEND!

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Breaking the Bottlenecks: Reforming ‘anti-supply measures’ - Centre for Cities

I'm open to the idea of structuring a reduction of the space standards through a novel devolved approach but they are just too large. Our Bottlenecks report explains why (+ I live in a 50m2 newbuild London flat and would pefer a smaller but cheaper equivalent) www.centreforcities.org/publication/...

centreforcities.org

Five anti-supply measures introduced under the previous Government that should be reviewed by Government and the new version of London Plan.

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Reposted by Ant Breach

Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

My sense is UK lacks in leisure infrastructure too. Pricing shows chronic undersupply of Center Parcs in UK. Every major city should have one in their vicinity. And a massive indoor beach/water park/spa resorts. Every Mayor with new spatial planning and call in powers should allocate sites for both.

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Reposted by Ant Breach

Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Surprised and delighted to see the tourist levy as top story on the BBC News

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The real argument here is about incentives - do we see the mayors that set this levy become much more pro-hospitality in their behaviour? If so that's very promising for wider fiscal devolution and the mayoral agenda.

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Ultimately this is not about Government introducing a "tourist tax for England" as it's up to the mayors. Some like Ben Houchen are already saying thanks but no thanks - this is exactly right as policy on this topic should be adapted to local conditions:

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