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Why Do Some Rebel Governments Last When Others Fall? (Gift Article)

We also discuss what our theory implies for the rebel victory that brought down the Assad regime in 2024 in this NYT piece /11 www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/w...

nytimes.com

One factor matters most, and it could be a problem in Syria.

👉We find that revolutionary regimes are not that unique! Revolutionary regimes are a SUBSET of unified rebel regimes, and these non-revolutionary regimes are just as durable. Regime stability stems from credible power sharing, rather than transforming society /

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Why don’t fractured-rebel regimes try to share power across armed groups? Finding #4: They TRY, but FAIL! 77% of fractured regimes try to share power outside of their own group; 96% of these attempts fall apart /8

Finding #2: Rebel regimes are most often toppled by *subsequent rebellions* rather than coups. (Versus NON-rebel autocracies, which are *mostly* toppled by coups!) FRACTURED-rebel regimes are most vulnerable to conflict recurrence; renewed fighting often brings down the state⚔️/7

Finding #1: FRACTURED-rebel regimes are *three times* more likely to break down in a given year than UNIFIED-rebel regimes. Statistically significant difference holds across regions & time periods, not driven by social revolutions, leftist rebellions, etc. /6

📊NEW DATA SET: Every rebel regime in the world between 1900-2020. We identify 84 rebel regimes in 61 countries, almost all authoritarian. INCLUDES weak, short-lived, and failed-state cases /5

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Why this divergence? It depends on whether the founding rebellion was UNIFIED (one rebel group) or FRACTURED (multiple groups). It's much easier to credibly share power within a single organization than across multiple armed groups. /4

But!☝️Mass violence also causes chaos and instability. Why should we necessarily expect the resulting regimes to rebuild durable order? /3

Common story: Rebel/revolutionary autocracies are exceptionally durable /2

Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

🚨 New in @apsrjournal.bsky.social! 🚨How do the origins of authoritarian regimes shape their subsequent trajectories? @kbclarke.bsky.social @jackpaine.bsky.social and I are excited to share "Rebel Victory and Authoritarian (Dis)Order" /1

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We’re doing a polisci tennis social the Wednesday before APSA!! Sign up here - all levels welcome! I might get stickers made!!! 🎾🎾🎾

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

He asked for my advice about a piece, ignored everything I suggested, and then made a bunch of really misleading graphs lol

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

This is amazing! Thanks so much. Ive been looking for something like this to add to my teaching slides.

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I agree but travel guides provide information and reasoning. They don't just give a number.

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If the intervals are huge, how useful is the data?

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I was booking an Airbnb yesterday, and I filtered out the ones with fewer than 10 reviews because it’s not enough information

Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

I appreciate the discussion and transparency here, but 4-6 experts is not very many, especially when many of the coding questions don‘t have a clear right or wrong answer

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Wait is 2024 not a few years ago? 😭

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Wow that’s really kind, thank you! And how exciting that you have a new project on resilience, that’s awesome!

Melanie Sauter @melinscribe.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Reposted by Anne Meng

🚨 Join us for the next edition Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim 🚨 7 days of hands-on advanced methods + networking for PhDs, postdocs & early-career researchers. Free of charge (limited travel support). Deadline 1 March 2026: summerschoolwpm.org #methodsky #polisky

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

that actually highlights how the graph is misleading - the US has a higher baseline to start. even by these metrics the US with declines probably still scores higher

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

dude did you check this before writing it? Gezi Park protests was severely repressed in 2013

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Wow I randomly logged onto here and have 50 notifications haha. I do not think the US is worse than Turkey, Russia, Hungary, or Venezuela. For starters, we haven’t had over a third of the population flee the country

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

Yay!! The section is in great hands! Thanks for taking over @scottrw630.bsky.social! 👑

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Reposted by Anne Meng

Joan Ricart-Huguet @ricarthuguet.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

To all DC, MD and VA scholars: Submit your paper to the first annual DMV-WEPS by 9/22! And please repost to spread the word @gvisconti.bsky.social @acooperman.bsky.social

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Reposted by Anne Meng

Edward Goldring @edwardgoldring.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

@pward89.bsky.social and I were delighted to win the Best Article Award from APSA’s Democracy and Autocracy section for our @worldpolitics.bsky.social article “Elite Management Before Autocratic Leader Succession: Evidence from North Korea.” muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

So young but so politically savvy!

Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

I was coding some stuff and I realized that I have "lived through" a coup!! Thailand, February 1991. I wish I could remember it. All I can remember is having a birthday party at McDonalds around that time.

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

New workshop in DC! Now taking submissions 👇

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Anne Meng @annemeng.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

So impactful that I'm even using her tennis rackets tonight!