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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

No surprise that the Mail is trying to stir up the pensioners.

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Reposted by Andrew Watt

ETUI @etui.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Full report 🔗 etui.org/4Mx

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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Indeed, not that long ago people (institutions) were buying 30 yr bonds with a coupon of not much more than 1%.

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giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... In plain sight, much of the additional cost imposed by higher energy prices on European consumers creates windfall profits in multinational companies that they immediately distribute to their shareholders. This is political poison. @isabellamweber.bsky.social

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I understand & sympathise w/ your view. However, in the current situation facing France (& thus Europe, which is why I intervene) the programme based on clear social analysis, ideas and convictions that will ultimately be implemented will be that of Mme le Pen and not that of JL Melenchon. On verra.

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... If they do not likely JLM will go head to head against Le Pen. The best evidence we have NOW is that a more centrist candidate has a better chance against her than JLM. That is also plausible (idea of median voter). That is the basis for my call. If the facts change I will change my mind.

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I agree that there are 8 months to go and things can change. However, the current situation facing the French political forces (except RN) is whether candidates between JLM and MLP sd reach an agreement on a common single candidate. If they do they will likely go into a 2nd round against MLP. ...

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Do you have new polling evidence for the 2nd round? I will change my mind if new polls show that JLM has better chances against Le Pen than a candidate to his right. That is what is decisive.

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Update A month later and Melenchon is consolidating his 2nd place while the centre remains weak. This is not good news because - whatever one thinks of JLM's policies - he is much less likely to beat Le Pen in the 2nd round than a less polarising candidate (see above). bsky.app/profile/jere...

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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Because it is an input for ... just about everything, not soon.

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Winter gas demand is highly temperature dependent, so Europe is a cold snap away from a further severe inflationary squeeze, on top of the current one from vehicle fuels.

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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

What Thucydides trap? Chimerica! Just one big happy family! Source: FT

Photo showing XI Ping and his wife and Trump and Melania all looking very grim

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ETUI @etui.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

What could a pro-worker and more democratically legitimate #trade policy look like? www.socialeurope.eu/beyond-free-... ✍ ETUI General Director @andrewwatteu.bsky.social and @etuc-ces.bsky.social Deputy General Secretary Claes-Mikael Ståhl outline four key changes to be made:

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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

...to launch the Transmission Protection Instrument, enabling targeted purchases of FR govt bonds. Cue a renewed outbreak of internecine conflict btwn proponents of collective insurance & moral hazard, w/ the ECB in an impossible position. The only lasting solution is partial fiscal Europeanisation!

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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Update France's Bund spread is now over 1pp (104 basis points). (h/t @acemaxx.bsky.social) It's like watching a slow-motion car crash. Rates rise. The govt prepares fiscal austerity, which will depress growth & employment, substantially offsetting the fiscal gain. The ECB will come under pressure...

Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The room is full, but you can still sign up to attend our Thursday event with i.a. Dani Rodrik online. 👇 Link at the end of the thread.

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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Update: substack.com/inbox/post/2... I urge you to read @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social latest, which analyses in detail the risks to Europe from US fiscal incontinence addressed in the column 👆 . He advocates capital controls, which would be a corollary to establishing an EU treasury market.

substack.com

Europe should stop financing the American house of cards.

Europe should stop financing the unsustainable US budget and overextended oligopolistic private sector. The money should be invested in Europe instead.

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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

A picture to cut out and keep. If confirmed it would be the first time the CDU failed to enter a state legislature since .... ever. #Zeitenwende

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Just in case you were in any doubt about how ugly and violent the right-wing nationalists are when given space. In the UK they are intimidating and physically attacking people who give up their time and risk their lives to save people, whoever they are, who are in difficulty at sea. 🤦 #RNLI

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I agree. But that also implies that, at a time of an AI boom, it is not wise to run large deficits.I fear this will not end well. And structurally, I think government borrowing should be invested (in the widest sense) and not just recycled back to bondholders.

Key is that r moves sluggishly bc of the big historical component. US (& EU countries) still benefit from low past interest rates. But that cuts both ways. Current high rates also get baked in. If g falls and so do current interest rates, the govt still has a problem bc r takes a long time to fall.

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And if there is a downturn things get nasty fast as g falls sharply, the primary deficit widens, and r doesn't fall or in the worst case even rises. So there is a huge vulnerability.

Important and indeed counterintuitive points.a large interest burden, apparently, helps with the debt maths. Still I think this is too sanguine for the US. Historically r-g hasn't been sustained at -2.5 for extended periods.Average r is rising. g likely not (unless AI boom).

bsky.app/profile/mark... This is the most visible manifestation yet of the idea Carney voiced at Davis of the "middle powers" coming together in mutual support and in defence of multilateralism and respect for international law. EU✊🇨🇦

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I think what is key is for other countries to learn how to put together a broad centre-left-green coalition. bsky.app/profile/andr...

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A word to politicians in France and elsewhere. It is possible to build coalitions between the centre and the left, including the greens and to beat the moderate and the far right. But only by checking personal vanities & maximalist positions before entering the room, focusing on the main threat.

You don't need to be an inflation nutter to conclude that, despite his complaints, Trump has been very favourably treated by the Fed. It is arguably considerably behind the curve, particularly in view of the still very expansionary fiscal stance, with no sign of a correction.

Jonas Nahm makes a number of apposite points here: bsky.app/profile/jona... The EU needs to define statuses short of membership also for other cases incl. UK, Iceland, Ukraine. Complex, but important and urgent.

Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

World, note the superpower-president's intense displeasure and resort to empty threats when the bullied middle powers deepen their econoc relations. World, you know what to do.

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www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/competitive-... There are trade offs between the goals of a competitive, green and social Europe. But there are also synergies, and the tradeoffs can be addressed - if we are willing to change policies. My interview with the Green European Journal.

greeneuropeanjournal.eu

Competitive, Green, Social: Can Europe Have All Three?

Andrew Watt explains what the changing political landscape could mean for workers and trade unions – and for the kind of economic model Europe is building.

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Markus Marterbauer @markusmarterbauer.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Was kann Europa tun, um sich vor einer aus den USA kommenden Finanzkrise zu schützen? Die Schaffung einer sicheren, liquiden Euro-Anleihe, eines "Safe Asset", so argumentiert @andrewwatteu.bsky.social, General Director @etui.bsky.social www.socialeurope.eu/americas-fis...

socialeurope.eu

America’s Fiscal Crisis Is Europe’s Chance to Build a Treasury Market of Its Own

The EU should seize the moment to gain strategic autonomy by creating its own safe asset.

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As far as I am aware, and it makes intuitive sense, the problem is bridging between the positions of the Left and the Centre parties.

Oh dear! What a pity! Never mind!

ETUI @etui.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Let's see if words or money have more influence on people's behaviour 🤓

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What role can #TradeUnions play in shaping the new rules of the game in international #trade? 🌍 📆 Our upcoming hybrid conference, co-organised with @etuc-ces.bsky.social and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, is bringing together a number of distinguished speakers to tackle the question 👇

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