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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

‼️ Nigel Farage calls on President to resign ‼️ Oh. Right.

Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

This is a request for decorum and restraint in connection with Ann Widdecombe. Our personal views about her or the events surrounding her death are, IMHO, irrelevant. And sharing them is potentially detrimental to us all. A murder investigation is underway (see ⬇️, BBC).

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

For completeness, at least for this brief survey, Keir Starmer is highly unpopular. Horrific most recently, at -42%. And really bad for most of his time as PM: typically -20% or worse. Both the bigger net negative & the smaller one are typical Farage levels. /4.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Kemi Badenoch is pretty much net negative all the way. It’s notable that as she’s gone from nonentity to well-known, her ratings have gone sharply net negative. Not quite as bad as Farage (-22% in these YouGov charts, at April 2026, much worse at other times). But bad! /3.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Compare that to Andy Burnham. Less well known (that will change). Net positive popularity all the way. (Even if slightly underwhelming). Without the data, just going by media coverage, how many people would say Burnham’s net ratings were consistently higher than Farage’s? /2.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Populist, maybe. Popular, not. Almost everyone in the UK has heard of Nigel Farage. He makes much noise, gets masses of free publicity - & much less well publicised extensive funding & help from … interesting … sources. Yet he’s unpopular. Net negative all the way. /1.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

P.S. 3: update - Rachel Reeves has accepted Nigel Farage’s formal request to be removed from the House of Commons to stand in a by election in the constituency he already represents (or did until now). ⬇️

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

P.S. 2: Letter from Ed Davey to the Chancellor of the Exchequer (attached as screenshot):

Wednesday 8th July 2026
Dear Chancellor,
I am writing to urge you to refuse to let Nigel Farage resign as an MP until the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner's investigation into him has concluded, so the people of Clacton have the full facts before casting their votes.
Mr Farage is currently under investigation for failing to declare a £5 million donation, and has been referred to the Commissioner for failing to declare financial support from a convicted fraudster.
Rather than face the investigation with dignity Mr Farage is seeking to manipulate Parliamentary rules - and manipulate his own constituents - to evade scrutiny and justice. He has broken the rules so badly, enriched himself so much, that he believes only this desperate throw of the dice can rescue his position.
His cynical ploy cannot come to pass.
You have the power to stop Farage's deception, and make him wait for the investigation to complete before he can resign. Use it. The voters of Clacton deserve full knowledge of Farage's lies and his rule breaking. A vanity by election serves no one but him.
I hope you will listen to people across the country who are disgusted by Farage's behaviour, including your own cabinet colleagues, and end this farce.
I look forward to your response.
Ed Davey

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

🇧🇪 v 🇺🇸 latest How long before Putin intervenes to say Belgium isn’t a real country?

Mon 06 July 2026
UPDATE: RBFA STATEMENT REGARDING
FOLARIN BALOGUN
f X in •
The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA] is astonished by FIFA's decision to declare suspended United States player Folarin Balogun eligible to play in the USA-Belgium match on Monday, 6 July at 5:00 p.m. (Seattle time).
UPDATE 06/07/2026
Q
Following its previous statement, the RBFA wishes to publicly explain the events of the past few hours.
After learning through media reports of FIFA's decision to lift the automatic suspension of player Balogun, the RBFA sent a letter to FIFA requesting a copy of the decision, an explanation of the process that had been followed, and setting out its position regarding the applicable regulations.
As its only response, FIFA sent a letter to the RBFA stating that it considered this correspondence to constitute an appeal, that a judge had been appointed, and that the RBFA had only a few hours to complete that appeal. No information whatsoever was provided by FIFA.
For an appeal to be admissible, FIFA's own regulations state that the reasoned decision must first have been communicated to the appellant. While the RBFA was merely seeking legitimate explanations, FIFA itself created an appeal and immediately ensured that it would be declared inadmissible.
All of this occurred while FIFA simultaneously refused to respond to the RBFA's legitimate requests.
Furthermore, during the match coordination meeting, FIFA deliberately removed the section concerning the automatic suspension of players from its presentation.
This topic had nonetheless been part of all such meetings before each of the previous four matches. The RBFA questioned FIFA, both orally and in writing, about the reasons for this change, yet once again received no response.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Want a strategic, expert analysis of UK defence/ Defence Investment Plan (DIP)? Watch @lordrickettsp.bsky.social on @cathynewman.bsky.social’s @skynewsrss.bsky.social show. tl;dr the DIP is better than nothing, but not enough; need to get creative and take serious, urgent, sustained action /1.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Same data, but GDP rather than GDP per capita. Same signals. Same damage.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

So much Brexitist nonsense. The truth: (1) the UK was badly hit by the 2016 referendum - which generated political chaos and high levels of risk - sharply diverging from high income countries/ EU (2) a huge and increasing gap opened up after leaving the single market and customs union Go figure.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

The BBC News front page (via iOS app) just now. You might say it shows us everything we need to know about two-tier journalism and associated attitudes in Britain. I couldn’t possibly comment.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

I’ve been supportive of Sir Keir Starmer as PM. But if you think his problems stem from media attacks, read this: “… you have been unable … to commit the resources [needed] to defend the country at this time of rising threats”. There’s something badly wrong at the heart of his government.

Letter from John Healey to Keir Starmer (first page).

Letter from John Healey to Keir Starmer (second page).

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Wes Streeting’s letter (rightly) warns of tyranny. In the UK, as in other countries, a splintered pro-democracy majority faces a consolidating anti-democracy minority. Unless the pro-democracy forces pull together, tyranny will win. Who will lead the pro-democracy coalition?

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Well, this is odd, even if unsurprising. Wes Streeting writing a two-page resignation letter which boils down to: “I don’t have the numbers to run against you. But I’ve backed myself into a corner in which, to maintain any political credibility, all I can now do is resign”.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Peace Makers by @lordrickettsp.bsky.social comes out on Thursday. A terrific read. Extraordinary characters. Amazing exploits. Through the lens of British diplomacy during and around WW2, the origins and value of the world in which we’ve lived - now endangered - are brought to life. Buy it!

Cover of Peace Makers, by Peter Ricketts

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Hot off the X-press (read carefully …) ⬇️

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

If this opinion polling ⬇️ is about right, there’s a real chance Reform gets most votes in a 6 member constituency. If so, the version of d’Hondt in Wales could give them highly disproportionate representation. Replicate that over multiple such constituencies & you might be shocked at the result.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

A case can be made that the FT has got this out of proportion. Is what the UK ambassador to the US says really such a big deal? Yet the FT got the exclusive. Why wouldn’t they splash it? (BTW, international & UK editions). So it is significant. Ambassadors matter. Care matters.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Also: Hansard extract of PM answer at 22 April PMQs ⬇️

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Continuation (see first post). /2. End

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Latest evidence from the Foreign Office seems to suggest Olly Robbins was right all along. See attached (4 screenshots, another 4 attached to the next post). /1.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Chris Wormald’s letter is the civil service doing an Eric Morecambe telling André Previn “I’m playing all the right notes - but not necessarily in the right order”. Appointing an ambassador to Washington, the right order is key. The wrong order was followed. And Wormald clearly knew it.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

It does. And civil servants are responsible for NSV. Ministers not. The FCDO minister knew that in Sept (at the latest). The PM/minister for the civil service apparently didn’t know it even yesterday. National security risks must be managed within those parameters. Or, Parliament must legislate.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

You make it difficult to be reasonable. But I’ll try. Parliament decided that ministers have no power(s) over national security vetting (see attached). Every British ambassador (there may be v rare exceptions) has to hold DV. Political appointees such as Ed Llewelyn will certainly have been DV’d.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

Also, FCDO minister in House of Commons last September:

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

Thank you, Simon. New No. 10 line attached. Thoughts? Mine: Sit at OR’s desk. UKSV recommends denial of DV. But you approve it. What will the PM do if told all? Pull Mandelson in case the UKSV recommendation leaks? In practice that’d be the PM overturning a DV decision. Just what mustn’t happen.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

The govt statement (attached) suggests the decision was left entirely to officials. In one sense, good: better if no politician overrules security vetting decisions. But officials knowing the PM is determined to have a particular person appointed can, surely, dangerously influence decision making.

A government spokesperson said: "The decision to grant Developed Vetting to Peter Mandelson against the recommendation of UK
Security Vetting was taken by officials in the FCDO.
Neither the prime minister, nor any government minister, was aware that Peter Mandelson was granted Developed Vetting against the advice of UK Security Vetting until earlier this week."

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

“A whole civilisation will die tonight” from the president & commander-in-chief of the US must, unless promptly withdrawn, be taken literally. It’s a direct, credible threat of genocide. It implies use of nuclear weapons: no other form of attack could achieve such an effect. A very short 🧵 /1.

Social media post of 7 April by Donald Trump:

A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

“Iran’s Grand Strategy” by Vali Nasr is available in the usual formats, including as an audiobook. Well worth reading. /2. End

Cover of book “Iran’s Grand Strategy” by Vali Nasr.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 21/03/2026

This book by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social - War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why - is terrific. A great read. Super important. Buy it for yourself! Buy it for your friends!

Book cover of War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, by Phillips O’Brien.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

The excellent Sally Langrish - the UK government’s chief international lawyer (the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office Legal Adviser) - sets out in one minute what international law is & why we need it. We’re lucky to have her. And the law she helps us respect & navigate. Have a listen. /1.

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Andrew Levi @andrewprlevi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Merz says he told Trump behind closed doors that: (a) any trade deal with the EU is either with Spain on equal terms or not at all, NATO/ defence spending being a matter to address separately; (b) Trump’s criticism of Starmer is unjustified, the UK plays a strong E3 and defence role.

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