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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta.bsky.social
7K followers 2 following 35 posts

Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council of the United States. All views my own. Reposting doesn’t imply endorsement.

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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
“The growing divide between elites and citizens in both the United States and Europe has weakened democratic societies just when they need to be strong and resilient.” My latest for RealClearDefense. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
realcleardefense.com
Weak Elites Add to Systemic Instability in the West
Western democracies are finally recognizing that a major system-transforming war could happen soon. As regional power balances threaten to unravel across Europe, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula,
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Good to be back in Warsaw. Ogród Saski (Saxon Garden), my favorite park.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 17/08/2025
It is as though China were taking a page from the American playbook from World Wars I and II (..). In those two wars, the US entered last, suffered the fewest casualties, and was positioned to frame the political settlement after the shooting had stopped. nationalsecurityjournal.org/china-will-n...
nationalsecurityjournal.org
China Will Never Let Russia Lose the War in Ukraine
The key to ending the Ukraine war isn't in Moscow, but in Beijing. A look at how China is strategically exploiting the conflict to weaken the U.S. and why it will never let Russia lose.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 03/08/2025
The key question for NATO’s future is whether the United States will remain fully engaged on the continent and how German-Russian and German-Chinese relations will evolve going forward. My latest for RCD. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
realcleardefense.com
NATO and the Future of European Security: The German Question
Four years ago, it would have been hard to believe that U.S. relations with its European NATO allies would reach another inflection point. Much of the current flux stems from the changing power distri
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Worth reading by Le Figaro’s brilliant Laure Mandeville—including a few quotations from me. En cas d’invasion de Taïwan par la Chine, le scénario d’une diversion de Poutine en Europe www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
lefigaro.fr
En cas d’invasion de Taïwan par la Chine, le scénario d’une diversion de Poutine en Europe
ANALYSE - Le secrétaire général de l’Otan, Mark Rutte, a remis sur la table la question clé de l’alliance sino-russe que Washington a tenté d’éviter sans succès.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 20/04/2025
Happy Easter!
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Reportedly, Army planners are w weighing force reductions of up to 90,000 active-duty soldiers. If this story is confirmed and the reductions implemented, this will have more impact than all the debates about the future of NATO. Facts on the ground. www.military.com/daily-news/2...
military.com
Army Planners Are Weighing Force Reductions of Up to 90,000 Active-Duty Soldiers
The Army is quietly considering a sweeping reduction of up to 90,000 active-duty troops, a move that underscores mounting fiscal pressures at the Pentagon and a broader shift in military strategy away...
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
„At the core of this unprecedented turmoil in transatlantic relations is what appears to be a fundamental shift in the United States’ relationship with Russia, which is the larger context of the Ukraine cease-fire negotiations.” My take for 19FortyFive www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/dona...
19fortyfive.com
Donald Trump's Russia Strategy Could End NATO as We Know It
The Trump administration's effort to pivot towards Russia, ostensibly to distance Moscow from Beijing, risks undermining NATO and weakening transatlantic unity.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Recommended.
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Veiko Spolitis @veikospolitis.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
No more Q, thank you @andrewmichta.bsky.social! #sivispacemparabellum www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impa... via @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
“Russia will take the West seriously and heed its warnings only if it sees that we possess the military capabilities and, most importantly, the intestinal fortitude to deter aggression and, if need be, defend our interests with force.” My latest. www.19fortyfive.com/2025/01/russ...
19fortyfive.com
Russia’s Imperial Mindset: Understanding the Roots of the Ukraine War
As the second Trump administration prepares to take charge of US foreign and security policy, there is intense debate in Washington about what the end state in Ukraine should be, what kind of a peace ...
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
We find ourselves in an environment increasingly reminiscent of the late 1930s, where the overarching balance of power is becoming ever-less stable. www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/the-...
19fortyfive.com
The United States Must Revisit the Basics of Geostrategy
It has become something of a cliché in Washington policy debates that the world today is more unstable and dangerous than at any time since the end of the Cold War. But even this statement doesn’t ful...
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
We need to relearn that the effectiveness of our weapons doesn’t rest solely on the relentless pursuit of the technological holy grail, but that these are tools that must be crafted to consider the geography and type of fight the enemy is likely to favor. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
realcleardefense.com
The Pentagon Should Rethink What Weapons and Munitions It Should Buy
The war in Ukraine has put paid to many assumptions about the weapons systems and munitions the U.S. military needs going forward.  For the past three decades our defense industrial base has oper
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities—the Northeast corridor in NATO. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
atlanticcouncil.org
The US should help NATO allies that help themselves
Washington should prioritize its defense cooperation with member states that are doing the most to bolster their own defenses, especially the Northeast corridor allies.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
It was an honor to testify at this important hearing. www.youtube.com/live/hUJrrZm...
youtube.com
YouTube
Share your videos with friends, family, and the world
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Today’s hearing on on Ukraine on Capitol Hill including my testimony www.csce.gov/press-releas...
csce.gov
HEARING – 1000 Days of Russia’s War on Ukraine – CSCE
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
“Assuming China sticks to its Taiwan timeline, the next secretary has two years to prevent World War III.” I’ve warned repeatedly that the next two-three years will be decisive in both the Atlantic and the Pacific theaters. Rearmament must be top priority. www.wsj.com/opinion/two-...
wsj.com
Opinion | Pentagon Has Two Years to Prevent World War III
To prepare, Defense Secretary-designate Pete Hegseth will need to overhaul the bureaucracy and cut waste.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
“By bringing Pyongyang into the fight, Moscow has dropped all pretense that it is concerned about horizontal escalation.” cepa.org/article/russ...
cepa.org
Russia and China: Two Countries, One Threat
Since the outbreak of all-out war in Ukraine, debate has raged in the US on whether the Russian and Chinese threats can be separated.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
No amount of AI assisted systems or long-range precision fires can compensate for the stark reality that the United States needs to design and manufacture weapons that it can deploy in large numbers. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
realcleardefense.com
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
“The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities.” My take. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
atlanticcouncil.org
The US should help NATO allies that help themselves
Washington should prioritize its defense cooperation with member states that are doing the most to bolster their own defenses, especially the Northeast corridor allies.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
Thank you for your service! God bless! #VeteransDay2024
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 18/10/2024
www.csce.gov/press-releas.... I look forward to testifying next week.
csce.gov
BRIEFING – Contesting Russia: Lessons from Central & Eastern Europe – CSCE
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Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer @margareterosali.bsky.social · 06/09/2024
@andrewmichta.bsky.social Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative The world today is more fractured than at any time since the end of the Cold War. We are heading for a period of protracted systemic instability, with #Europe,-- alt👀 ⁦⁦ My take. ⬇️ www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
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Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer @margareterosali.bsky.social · 17/08/2024
#Germany #Ukraine x.com/andrewmichta... Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social 👏🙏 If confirmed, this is the worst moment for such a decision by #Berlin. It sends exactly the wrong message. It should be reversed immediately. #ArmUkraineNow #StandWithUkraine 🔴 www.politico.eu/article/germ...
politico.eu
Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report
The ban, which is already in place, will affect all new requests for assistance to Kyiv, Germany’s FAZ newspaper reported.
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 06/02/2024
Connecting this to @andrewmichta.bsky.social call in City Journal piece for domestic industrial rejuvenation. www.city-journal.org/article/waki...
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 06/02/2024
Very important essay from @andrewmichta.bsky.social: Strategic prioritization is key; must avoid "everything is a priority" approach but also ability to recognize legacy priorities may diminish as geopolitical/geoeconomic conditions change. 1/ www.city-journal.org/article/waki...
city-journal.org
Waking A Weary Superpower
How America can overcome its crisis of self-confidence
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 15/01/2024
It’s time for an American national security strategy that doesn’t merely speak about “maintaining the rules-based international order” in normative terms, but draws a geostrategic map of the world that favors US interests—as well as those of its allies. @politico.eu www.politico.eu/article/west...
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 26/12/2023
My comments on the importance of continued US aid to Ukraine via Newsweek www.newsweek.com/afghanistan-...
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 02/12/2023
A path to Ukraine’s membership in NATO—via AtlanticCouncil, including my endorsement. Please share. #StandWithUkraine.
atlanticcouncil.org
Memo to the president: A bold agenda for the Washington summit: How to advance vital US interests by...
The upcoming NATO summit marking the Alliance's seventy-fifth anniversary presents an opportunity for US leadership to meet this danger by taking steps to provide Ukraine the means to win the war and ...
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 29/11/2023
While several @NATO members continue to fail to meet the 2% defense pledge, Putin approved a 10,775 trillion rubles defense budget for 2024—that’s 70% more than in 2023, 2.3 times more than in 2022 and three times more than in 2021. About time we wake up…
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 31/10/2023
Preparing to teach regional security, @andrewmichta.bsky.social in @politico.eu noting what U.S. policymakers need to be doing: "The U.S. ... has to decide which geopolitical hubs are critical to its homeland security and the continued prosperity of its citizens. 1/
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 11/10/2023
I know @andrewmichta.bsky.social, Elbridge Colby & others have continued to warn about defense industrial base. I want to expand because we've seen 2 of 3 Mike Pompeo "lighthouses" (Ukraine, Israel) experience shortages, with Taiwan still on the horizon. 1/
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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
Remember many conversations with @andrewmichta.bsky.social @radiofreetom.bsky.social and Derek Reveron in the halls in Newport that U.S. policy was too reactive, letting Moscow and Beijing set the table. www.city-journal.org/article/a-wa...
city-journal.org
A Wake-Up Call for America, Too
Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel is part of an unfolding great-power conflict.
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Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta.bsky.social · 08/10/2023
Greeting y’all. Phil O’Brian suggested I try this platform. Good to be here.
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