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Andi Fugard

@andifugard.info
1.4K followers 1K following 77 posts

Policy evaluator. London-based, Belfast-born. They/them. Personal account – views mine. Posts auto delete after a month. Mastodon: sciences.social/@andi Web: andifugard.info DM: andifugard.info/contact

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Reposted by Andi Fugard
Achim Zeileis @zeileis.org · 8h
🚨 New CRAN Task View: Package Development and Maintenance #rstats #cran By Lluís Revilla and Heather Turner @heathrturnr.fosstodon.org.ap.brid.gy URL: cran.r-project.org/view=Package...
Screenshot of the CRAN Task View "Package Development and Maintenance" at https://CRAN.R-project.org/view=PackageDevelopment
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
Channel 4 News @channel4news.bsky.social · 4h
The former German intelligence chief August Hanning has been arrested on allegations of espionage. He was head of the Federal Intelligence Service from 1998 to 2005 and prosecutors said he was "suspected of spying out state secrets and attempted treason."
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 20h
Variations on this across a range of fields and published papers. Reminds me of a paper that cited (all of) Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations to justify a broad and vague assertion. Maybe it did.
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 05/10/2026
In the UK, the best way to learn about probability sampling, weighting, and survey logisitics is probably to work for one of the big agencies like IFF Research, Ipsos, NatCen, or Verian. They have well-established processes and training. Probability samples are widely used for government contracts.
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 01/10/2026
That's a really good example. I've worked with clients who want a bunch of regressions but the hard part is trying to discern what they know and what they want to find out. And another example of don't code until the requirements are specified - p-hacking quite different to prototyping software.
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 01/10/2026
Example of clear communication on Fairford, e.g. - States source of evidence: 999 caller checked their phone to confirm time, "my contacts... um... what I have been told" - Covers range of claims that need to be explained - Marks conjecture based on similar cases www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9WB...
youtube.com
RAF Fairford Plot Foiled By One Of The Suspects Who Called The Police | Fiona Hamilton
YouTube video by Times Radio
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 01/10/2026
Bugs were always in the specification too. That's why formal specification was developed in computer science and people who use it prove properties of specs before going anywhere near code. Similar for rapid prototyping, which can help clients realise they didn't know what they wanted :)
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 30/09/2026
Why is this one very grauniad? 😆
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 30/09/2026
Good lord. Over 100 academics "at a string of universities" across the UK have been funded by CGTRI, a front for Chinese intelligence
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 30/09/2026
News is always messy, but this case seems to have brought out the worst of rolling 24/7 speculation and poorly reported and cited evidence
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 30/09/2026
Reporting on Fairford reads like a social psychology experiment on susceptibility to misinformation. Conditions "The [media outlet] understands that..." Speculation, varying source, bias and likely knowledge of facts Official statement Eyewitness testimony Photo Photo manipulated ("enhanced") by AI
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Ciaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I was wrong. It’s happening
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 29/09/2026
No explosives found in three vans searched near RAF Fairford, say police
theguardian.com
No explosives found in three vans searched near RAF Fairford, say police
Head of counter-terrorism policing defends decision to bail five British men arrested in connection with the incident No explosive devices were found in three vans searched near RAF Fairford as part of a terrorism investigation but a quantity of petrol was recovered, police have said. Five British nationals were arrested in the early hours of Sunday morning after a resident living near the Gloucestershire airbase reported suspicious activity involving three vans. Continue reading...
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 29/09/2026
Equality is commutative so linear regression aligns with horseshoe theory
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 29/09/2026
Even a stopped clock doesn't deliberately give the right time twice a day so it's believed the rest of the time. Also everytime you mention stopped clocks I think of this Orbital track that samples Withnail: open.spotify.com/track/4Sf37R...
open.spotify.com
PLANET OF THE SHAPES
Orbital · Orbital 2 · Song · 1993
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 29/09/2026
Recursive technology
Output from:

cs <- paste0("\033[", 31:36, "m")

cstr <- \(s, coli) {
  idx <- ((coli - 1) %% length(cs)) + 1
  paste0(cs[idx], s, "\033[0m")
}

recursive_technology <- \(n, m = 1) {
  indent <- strrep(" ", m * 2)
  if (m == n) {
    paste0(indent, cstr("technology\n", m))
  } else {
    paste0(
      indent, cstr("recursive (\n", m),
      recursive_technology(n, m + 1),
      indent, cstr(")\n", m)
    )
  }
}
recursive_technology(7) |> cat()
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
recursive_technology <- \(n) { if (n == 0) "technology" else paste("recursive", recursive_technology(n - 1)) } recursive_technology(42)
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
AI going rogue
static.klipy.com
Johnny 5 Driving in Short Circuit Movie
Alt: Johnny 5 driving in Short Circuit film
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
"If your Ai starts hacking shit... if you monitor what it's going you can, you know, turn the fucking power off...." Daniel Card, cited in ciaranmartin.substack.com/p/control-ow...
ciaranmartin.substack.com
Control. Ownership. Perspective.
Three lessons from the latest AI cyber security testing problems
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
"If your Ai starts hacking shit... if you monitor what it's going you can, you know, turn the fucking power off...." Daniel Card, cited in ciaranmartin.substack.com/p/control-ow...
ciaranmartin.substack.com
Control. Ownership. Perspective.
Three lessons from the latest AI cyber security testing problems
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
Dr Keith 🎃 Wilson @keithwilson.eu · 28/09/2026
On-off switch
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
Also surprised to see mice and hamster studies in a systematic review of RCTs with children - though they apparently didn't make it to the meta-analysis, surely they should have been screened out before the table of included studies...?
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Who could have guessed that the editors/reviewers of "Evidenced based complimentary and alternative medicine" might be pretty bad at the evidence-based part. 😆
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Don’t believe people who tell you ai can be liberatory or any other misappropriation of movement talk or justice frameworks. Find some people who are preparing to rebuild and cast your lot with them. Then read a bit more. Just keep your wits about you because they are trying to run game.
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Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Please try to reclaim your precious precious attention, at all costs. Do puzzles. Take walks without a phone. Dear god, try to read, almost anything that isn’t a manifesto will really do. You are going to need your brain.
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
Steve Herman @newsguy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
RAF Fairford suspects to be released on bail. www.bbc.com/news/live/c6...
bbc.com
RAF Fairford suspects to be released on bail, head of counter-terror police says
Laurence Taylor says the five men arrested on Sunday are still under investigation as police consider multiple lines of inquiry, including the possible involvement of a foreign state.
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EUvsDisinfo @euvsdisinfo.eu · 28/09/2026
On 10 February 2022, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia had ‘no plans to invade Ukraine’. Five days later, he dismissed reports of an imminent invasion as ‘Western hysteria’ and claimed Russian troops were already returning to their bases. Nine days later, Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Andreas Brandmaier @brandmaier.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ever looked at your graph and thought: this needs a more dramatic exit strategy? Make your R base plots self-destruct with style. If you must, download here: github.com/brandmaier/d... #RStats #DataVisualization #RProgramming #DataScience #OpenSource #AcademicHumor #noAI
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
"CTP says the five people arrested are all male in their early to mid-20s. All five are UK nationals from London." www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
bbc.co.uk
RAF Fairford suspects are all British men in their 20s, counter-terror police say
The men, who all live in London, were arrested in Whelford near the RAF base early on Sunday morning.
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
Testimony from farmer who called 999: - base operating at high security levels - civilian staff had been evacuated from base - had noticed activity "from what I assumed were plain clothed police officers for the previous few days" - armed police arrived within 10 mins www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...
bbc.co.uk
I saw masked men, farmer who called 999 says
A farmer who called 999 when she saw "a large group of hooded and masked men" near RAF Fairford early on Sunday morning has spoken to the BBC's Today programme.
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 28/09/2026
Police: Don't speculate about motivation for attack BBC: Fine, let's compare Trump statement vs. testimony from 999 caller and speculate that preventing an attack was down to luck¹ Also BBC: base security ramped up 5 days before² ¹ www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/... ² www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
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Shayan Sardarizadeh @shayan86.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
An AI-enhanced version of a grainy image that appears to be authentic and shows several men being arrested in relation to the ongoing incident at RAF Fairford is currently being shared on multiple platforms. A SynthID check reveals that the enhanced image was generated with OpenAI.
AI-enhanced version of an authentic image showing arrests at RAF Fairford
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Reposted by Andi Fugard
PAT FINUCANE CENTRE @finucanecentre.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Remember folks-at times of high community tension and re-traumatisation as is the case this morning with Drumcree/Garvaghy Rd there is one small step you can make for your own mental health and well being-do not listen to the toxic Nolan Show on Radio Ulster...
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 27/09/2026
Does the media need to focus on reporting on actual policies and progress?
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 27/09/2026
¹ www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/... ² www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s...
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 27/09/2026
Two different incidents, common theme: local residents can spot unusual activity. Near RAF Fairford, 00:45, resident called police after seeing three suspicious vehicles.¹ Preston‑next‑Wingham, residents reported hundreds of men arriving ahead of far‑right Dover blockade, prompting 999 call.²
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Emily Fox @abstractcow.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Why is this a line chart?! The horizontal axis isn’t time. What does the rightmost number even mean? 😭
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 25/09/2026
That Danish intelligence report is broadly in line with what the Baltics are saying. The threat assessment is unchanged here. Leipzig shows how all of Europe is threatened by Russia - and all of Europe could actually learn more from the Baltics. Full story: www.badbaltic.com/listen-to-th...
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 25/09/2026
⚡️ Macron cites 'several signs' Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 people. French President Emmanuel Macron claimed the Kremlin had been waiting to hold elections before launching another wave of mobilization.
kyivindependent.com
Macron cites 'several signs' Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 people
French President Emmanuel Macron claimed the Kremlin had been waiting to hold elections before launching another wave of mobilization.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 25/09/2026
⚡️Trump made 'final decision' on granting Ukraine Patriot licenses, Zelensky says "At our meeting, President Trump stressed that he had made his final decision: Ukraine will receive licenses to produce Patriot missiles," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
kyivindependent.com
Trump made 'final decision' on granting Ukraine Patriot licenses, Zelensky says
"At our meeting, President Trump stressed that he had made his final decision: Ukraine will receive licenses to produce Patriot missiles," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 25/09/2026
⚡️ EU defense fund unblocked, and with it new support for Ukraine. "That’s good news for Ukraine and bad news for Russia," said the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas, after EU countries agreed on how to unblock new money for Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
EU defense fund unblocked, and with it new support for Ukraine
"That’s good news for Ukraine and bad news for Russia," said the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas, after EU countries agreed on how to unblock new money for Ukraine.
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 25/09/2026
I think it has just become shorthand for regressing outcome on treatment group or exposure and covariates, including baseline measure of the outcome if there is one rather than, e.g., mixed models with interaction between treat and time or something with change scores. Other short names welcome.
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 25/09/2026
Did you get the claim yet that communication is only 7% verbal? Good debunking: ubiquity.acm.org/article.cfm?... One of many such claims that led me to bail out of a horrendous "leadership" course a few years ago. The most frustrating part was how many people who should know better nodding along.
ubiquity.acm.org
Ubiquity: The 7% rule
In 1971, Albert Mehrabian published a book Silent Messages, in which he discussed his research on non-verbal communication. He concluded that prospects based their assessments of credibility on factor...
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 25/09/2026
DDIS "assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO [...]. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties."
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 25/09/2026
Read the original. Invasion attempt "highly unlikely". "... no indications that Russia will launch an outright invasion of one or several NATO countries. Even if Russia decides to invade a NATO country, it would likely take Russia at least six months to prepare and build up the necessary forces."
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The Cochrane Collaboration @cochrane.org · 24/09/2026
INSPECT-SR – a tool for assessing the trustworthiness of randomized controlled trials – has been published today in @bmj.com, giving researchers a structured way to identify problematic studies before they're included in systematic reviews. 🔗 www.cochrane.org/about-us/new... #ResearchIntegrity
“Systematic reviews are only as credible as the studies they include.” — phrased as a Cochrane senior research integrity editor; a magnifying glass rests on stacked papers in the background to emphasize careful scrutiny of research.
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Lizzie Dearden @lizziedearden.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
Exclusive: Labour must reverse years of ­political failure on extremism to stop it ­fuelling more disorder, violence and terrorism in Britain, the former head of counter-terror policing and ex-extremism tsar have said They fear the situation is worsening fast www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Curb extremism now or face new terrorist threats, Labour warned
Experts say measures announced so far are not enough to turn the tide
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Andi Fugard @andifugard.info · 24/09/2026
Five ways to calculate a paired t-test in R 1. t.test 2. Intercept-only regression model of paired differences 3. Unit fixed-effects regression 4. Survey design clustered by ID with equal weights 5. Mixed model with random intercept by ID & Satterthwaite's t inductivestep.github.io/Random-bits-...
inductivestep.github.io
Five ways to calculate a paired t-test
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HOPE not hate @hopenothate.org.uk · 24/09/2026
There is no concrete evidence yet that Lennon is paid by Russia. But when Russian networks promote you, pro-Kremlin propagandists welcome you and you repeatedly parrot Moscow’s lines, the obvious question remains: Russian asset? Or just Putin’s useful idiot? hopenothate.org.uk/tommy-robins...
hopenothate.org.uk
Tommy Robinson: A Global Far-Right Figure
From Russia and America to Israel and the UAE, Lennon has built an increasingly powerful international network. We investigate the foreign politicians, wealthy backers and influence operations helping...
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HOPE not hate @hopenothate.org.uk · 24/09/2026
Lennon has appeared on RT, praised Putin, denied Russian involvement in the Skripal poisoning and travelled to Moscow to stand alongside Alexander Malkevich, a pro-Kremlin propagandist sanctioned by the US for election interference.
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