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Anderson Frailey

@andersonfrailey.bsky.social
112 followers 98 following 59 posts

(Assistant) econ professor. Interests include privacy, cybercrime, and talking about the 2006 Rose Bowl andersonfrailey.github.io

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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Texas football owes me compensation for that game
Evidence the Texas football team is attempting to kill their fans
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Sarah Jacobson @sarahjacobson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Jr economists attending ASSA 2027! Are you interested in a mentoring opportunity w/ leaders in the field? Are you from a group historically underrepresented in econ? Apply for @aeacsmgep.bsky.social small-group breakfast featuring AEA Pres Katherine Abraham Jan 5 8am! www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/co...
aeaweb.org
Small Group Breakfast Meeting for Underrepresented Scholars
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The “my girlfriend lives in Canada” approach to policy making
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Fantastic juxtaposition
Notification from the Washington post reading “Alarm Over 'Agents'
For years, they warned Al could kill all humans. Now people are listening.”
Above a notification from the New York Times reading “Breaking News Anthropic said it halted potential plots by scientists who used its A.l. models to do research that could have helped develop biological weapons.”
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
www.theverge.com/policy/97933...
theverge.com
Flock CEO: ‘We got this one wrong’
Garrett Langley has changed his mind on the company’s policy approach.
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Job market paper: submitted ✅
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I love sports so much 🇨🇻
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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Latest post, on the extremes of trying to making life mathematical: kucharski.substack.com/p/solving-ma...
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Here is a short write up of the experiment. Big takeaway for me: using LLMs for unguided text analysis is, currently at least, a bad idea andersonfrailey.github.io/blog/Don't-T...
andersonfrailey.github.io
Don't Trust LLMs with Open-Ended Text Analysis | Anderson Frailey
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Claude caught that all of the responses in the dataset were the same, but only because they were *exactly* the same. Give it randomly generated but not identical data and it'll still give you some differences
Claude's write-up of "real but moderate" differences between the five countries across opening verb choice, certainty level, sentence framing, and thematic priorities — differences that exist only due to random chance in the simulated data
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
I swapped out actual country names for ID numbers in the career and sentiment datasets and Copilot came up with a variety of alleged differences between the countries and (unprompted) assigned a flag emoji to each group
Copilot labeling Country 1 as "Direct, practical, service-oriented" and assigning it a Canadian flagCopilot characterizing Country 2 as "Entrepreneurial, ambitious, future-focused" and assigning it a Brazilian flagCopilot describing Country 3 as "Reflective, socially conscious, globally minded" and assigning it a Japanese flagCopilot categorizing Country 4 as "Structured, professional, policy-oriented" and assigning it a German flag
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Turns out, even if you use generic country identifiers, like numbers instead of country names, Copilot will still find differences where they don't exist. It may even assign countries to each identifier!
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Reupping this because early registration ends today!
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Early bird registration closes May 15th. You can register here: weis2026.econinfosec.org/travel-regis...
weis2026.econinfosec.org
Travel & Registration – WEIS 2026
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Presentation topics include: ransomware insurance and strategic ransom demand, cyber risk premia, and the impact of AI on cybercrime. The Ross Anderson WEIS Lecture (i.e., the WEIS keynote) will be given by Susan Athey of Stanford University!
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Interested in the economics of information security? Come to the Workshop on the Economics of Information Security in Berkeley, CA this June! The conference will feature interdisciplinary work on information, security, and privacy. It is also hybrid if you would prefer to attend remotely #EconSky
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Going back to beamer after a semester of exclusively using typst to make slides is...rough. Almost instant compilation and the ability to navigate through the source code using the preview window is such a quality of life improvement
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Every day I'm reminded why my FanGraphs membership is worth every penny
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
media.tenor.com
fry from futurama is holding a bunch of money in his hand
Alt: GIF with fry from futurama holding a bunch of money in his hand saying “shut up and take my money”
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
I'll be keeping these projections updated as the season progresses on my website if you'd like to follow along: andersonfrailey.github.io/mlb-projecti...
andersonfrailey.github.io
MLB Projections | Anderson Frailey
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
With Opening Day upon us, I have my projections for the year! A few notes: - Milwaukee almost always over performs. On my todo list is figuring out why. - The Dodgers are favorites to win the World Series, but the field still has an 80 percent chance - The AL East is projected to be very fun
Three tables showing full season projections for MLB's American League
In the AL West: SEA: 89 wins, HOU: 83 wins, TEX: 81 wins, ATH: 79 wins, and LAA: 70 wins.
In the AL Central: DET: 7 wins, KCR: 81 wins, MIN 79 wins, CLE: 76 wins; CHW: 69 wins.
In the AL East: TOR: 89 wins, NYY: 88 wins, BOS: 87 wins, BAL 86 wins, TBR: 79 wins.

Toronto has the highest probability of winning the World Series at 7.2 percentThree tables showing full season projections in MLB's National League.

In the NL West: LAD: 99 wins, SDP: 82 wins, SFG: 81 wins, ARI: 80 wins, COL: 63 wins

In the NL Central: CHC: 86 wins, MIL: 81 wins, PIT: 79 wins, CIN: 77 wins, STL: 74 wins

In the NL East: NYM: 90 wins, PHI: 89 wins, ATL: 87 wins, MIA: 72 wins, WSN: 66 wins.

The Dodgers have the highest odds of winning the World Series at 19.76 percent
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Monique E. Davis, Ph.D. (she/her) @moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
📢 NEA @ ASSA 2027 Submissions open for sessions & papers (Jan 3–5, 2027 in DC) 🗓 Due By: April 19, 2026 🔗 nea.submittable.com/submit Topics include stratification economics, inequality, labor, public policy, and race & economic outcomes. Encouraging grad students & early-career folks to submit!
nea.submittable.com
National Economic Association Submission Manager
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The big advantage in my eyes is giving those rote tasks to an LLM gives me more time to work through everything else
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
I still do the former because it helps me nail down the question, my empirical strategy, etc. LLM’s can usually handle the latter with varying degrees of hand holding
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
This is a very good post. My current approach to using LLMs is to split tasks into those that help develop the idea (e,g., writing and exploratory data analysis) and those that check a box (e.g., writing code to pull data from a well documented API)
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
An obscure methodological tweak -- a change in the source of data on the price of legal services -- resulted in meaningfully lower monthly PCE inflation in January. That's prompting questions about why the change was made and why it wasn't disclosed publicly. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b... #EconSky
nytimes.com
Change in Data Sources Led to Lower Inflation Reading
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Meg Rowley @megrowler.fangraphs.com · 11/03/2026
Opera, espresso, fancy jacket, little kisses - Team Italy is winning because they've embraced a philosophy of nice treats.
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
I’m making some final edits to my job market paper before submitting it (‼️) and 1) it’s quite good imo. 2) I’m so excited to, at least temporarily, have it off my desk
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CarbonPlan @carbonplan.org · 10/02/2026
Today we’re launching Open Climate Risk, a fully open option for U.S. building-level climate risk data. It’s unique because it allows you to see not only risk scores, starting with wildfire, but also the complete underlying dataset, methods, and codebase. carbonplan.org/research/cli...
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
I need the curling equivalent of statcast. I want stone spin rates. Break. Exit speed. Give me all the data
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FanGraphs Baseball @fangraphs.com · 20/01/2026
They Don’t Make Pitch Models Like They Used To blogs.fangraphs.com/they-dont-ma...
blogs.fangraphs.com
They Don’t Make Pitch Models Like They Used To
As the arms race for unhittable stuff intensifies, it’s harder for stuff metrics to tell which pitches will be successful.
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Anna Gifty @itsafronomics.blacksky.app · 20/01/2026
I went to go look for Census data this morning and.... y'all. #econsky
NOTICE:
Due to the lapse of federal funding, portions of this website will not be updated. Any inquiries submitted will not be answered until appropriations are enacted.
You will be redirected in 10 seconds...
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
What I’ve learned from SEA and #ASSA2026 is that every session on DID needs to be in the biggest room possible. Perhaps the nearest stadium or arena
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AEA Information @aeainformation.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
The AEA has imposed a lifetime ban on Lawrence H. Summers’ membership and participation in AEA activities. See the full statement here. www.aeaweb.org/news/aea-sta...
aeaweb.org
Statement from the American Economic Association
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
Broadcasters every time Arch targets Livingstone
media.tenor.com
a woman is standing on a sidewalk next to a car and a bicycle .
ALT: a woman is standing on a sidewalk next to a car and a bicycle .
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Exactly the man I’d ask for this advice from
Picture of a TV guide highlighting “Mike Huckabee’s Secret To More Energy After 69!”
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CSWEP @aeacswep.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
CSWEP strongly condemns Larry Summers’ behavior as revealed in the email correspondence with the late Jeffrey Epstein. While abuse of power in the economics profession is not new, rarely has the intent behind such abuse been so clearly stated.
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ArtButMakeItSports @artbutmakeitsports.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Abduction of Proserpina, by Giambologna, 1579 (from the @NortonSimon Museum in Pasadena), 📸 by @nturchiarophoto
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
If I were a fan of the Dodgers or Blue Jays I'd simply be dead
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Kinda nuts that we're interviewing managers during play in game 7 of the World Series. I think the viewers could survive without it
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
“In play, run(s)” feels a bit redundant here
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
I don’t want to hear another bad word about Arch 😤
media.tenor.com
a man wearing a green sec vest stands behind a football player
ALT: a man wearing a green sec vest stands behind a football player
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
If I were actually a fan of either of these teams I’d be in hell right now
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
Can confirm that playoff baseball is significantly less stressful when your team isn’t in it. I’m having a great time
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
This guy rules
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Zack Whittaker @zackwhittaker.com · 30/09/2025
New: Last night in the Senate, Ted Cruz blocked a bill that would have prevented data brokers from selling personal data on anyone in the United States, and not just federal lawmakers and government officials.
techcrunch.com
Ted Cruz blocks bill that would extend privacy protections to all Americans | TechCrunch
The Texas senator blocked a bill that would have prevented data brokers from selling personal data on anyone in the United States, and not just federal lawmakers and government officials.
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Since the Mariners hired their Etsy Witch they're 15-1. Over the same timeframe the Tigers are 4-11. It doesn't perfectly line up, but it seems like the witch may have simply transferred their misfortune to Detroit
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Anderson Frailey @andersonfrailey.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
www.theverge.com/internet-cul...
theverge.com
Anonymity is dead and we’re all content now
Your 15 minutes of fame may be more unpleasant than you ever imagined.
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