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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Yes, these were shorter-range trucks. But things are changing. SF and AliExpress are switching over their entire fleets, and battery sizes increased steadily through 2025, meaning more longer-range vehicles. 400 kWh is the sweet spot now, so this isn't 1 MWh true long-range trucks.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

👉👉👉 But come back in a year, and that will undoubtedly have changed!

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

👉From what we saw, I had to revise down my mental picture of EV truck charging in China as of early 2026. Yes, infrastructure is rolling out. But it’s hardly ubiquitous, and it might not resemble the futuristic, Tron-inspired images that top most EV-related WeChat articles about the industry.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

But their attitude was uniformly positive, noting they could easily charge off-peak at midday and evening for RMB 0.6/kWh. A serious advantage now that LNG and diesel prices are up.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 Notably, the trucks we saw were indeed fairly low-range bulk goods vehicles. They were headed to industry parks in Tangshan were only zero-emissions trucks were allowed. Unsurprisingly, the drivers were totally new to EV trucks.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 Mr Wang, a worker who was ineffectually hosing down some of the dust, explained the owners are in the process of adding at least 10 more chargers aimed at trucks.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 We finally decided to get off the expressway and used the Telaidian (Tgood) charging app to navigate to an EV truck charging station on a national road. We located a gigantic, dust-choked lot that was in the process of conversion from a farm field to a truck stop.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 On the expressway, we saw plenty of diesel and #LNG trucks, and a handful of EV trucks. But at the expressway service areas we tried? No dice. The diesel and LNG truck drivers we talked to were sceptical, telling us there weren’t any such chargers on expressways

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 Instead of searching out truck charging stations by contacting companies or searching charging apps, I went the lazy route and asked ChatGPT. AI hallucinated some great-sounding suggestions, and it was convinced we’d see rows of EV trucks parked at major expressway service areas near Beijing

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 I went into the journey with a few preconceptions. EVs have gone from a 10% market share in 2024 to a 29% share in 2025, and as high as 50% in December last year. China has over 5000 heavy truck charging stations.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Last weekend I went with a couple of friends from #Bloomberg to search out charging for heavy EV trucks 🚚🚛 in rural Hebei, #China. We chatted with truck drivers and got to see first-hand the Wild West early phases of the #EVtruck boom.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

👉👉But come back in a year, and that will undoubtedly have changed! 🙌

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

👉From what we saw, I had to revise down my image of EV truck charging in China in early 2026. Yes, infrastructure is rolling out. But it’s hardly ubiquitous, and it might not resemble the spotless, futuristic, Tron-inspired images that top most EV-related WeChat articles about the industry.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

But their attitude was uniformly positive, noting they could easily charge off-peak at midday and evening for RMB 0.6/kWh. A serious advantage now that LNG and diesel prices are up.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 Mr Wang, a worker who was ineffectually hosing down some of the dust, explained the owners are in the process of adding at least 10 more chargers aimed at trucks.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 On the expressway, we saw plenty of diesel and hashtag#LNG trucks, and a handful of EV trucks. But at the expressway service areas we tried? No dice. The diesel and LNG truck drivers we talked to were sceptical, telling us there weren’t any such chargers on expressways

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

AI hallucinated some great-sounding suggestions, and it was absolutely convinced we’d see row upon row of EV trucks parked at several major expressway service areas near Beijing.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

💠 Instead of searching out truck charging stations by contacting companies or searching charging apps, I went the lazy route and asked ChatGPT.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

EV truck batteries grew steadily last year, along with driving ranges. Adoption was driven partly by more infrastructure, including mostly charging – but also battery swap.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

In retrospect, we can all agree policy was actually critical, it just didn't come through 'big docs', but through specific measures -- local (support for EV and battery champions) and national (purchase subsidy/tax breaks/trade-in policy). /end

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Looking back at the role of policy since the 14th FYP, it's really hard to see any signal then that policy would lead to a fundamental change in NEV adoption. The official target for NEVs in 2025 was 20% in new sales. Other policies were supportive but lacked concrete targets or measures.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Coastal provinces w/ NEV and battery mfg capacity -> more NEV truck policies. Inland provinces with abundant/cheap gas -> LNG truck policies. Some provinces with both: Shandong with LNG terminals, IMAR and Shanxi with NEVs for mining and clean industry bases.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Just as the case for coal power after 2021, the real action might be in the provinces. NEVs and LNG trucks are already being led by local policy, not national policy. Regional industrial advantages determine the relative emphasis.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

For one, the 15th FYP is already favorable towards NEVs, mentioning the need to raise "the proportion of new-energy vehicles in transportation" and "accelerate the electrification of freight transport." Vague, yes. But already a stronger signal than NEVs got in the 14th FYP.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

So far, we don't see much NEV policy response to Iran, but that's hardly unusual. The last energy crisis China faced was power outages in 2021. This led to a major shift back towards coal. Could NEVs see something similar?

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Policy is an added question mark. Energy security was always in the background of NEV policy, but markets and the environment (for trucks, diesel emissions) played a larger role. Now what?

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

To put some numbers around "moderate," materials costs could increase ~RMB 10-15k for a 500 kWh battery truck. That could be paid back in 10-15k km. Not a dealbreaker, it would seem.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

You may have heard battery and EV costs are rising, and that's true. Materials prices capture all the headlines, but these should translate to only moderate impacts. Anti-involution could hit NEV makers too. Unclear if it raises NEV truck prices, though.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Given that the trade-in subsidy remains in place, for now, this may motivate truck owners to lock in the favorable economics of NEVs. With that trade-in subsidy, a mid-range NEV is almost the same price as a diesel truck.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

The graph above looks just at fuel prices. Diesel has risen modestly. LNG prices are up mainly because of tight domestic gas mkts. Electricity prices have basically no sensitivity to oil and gas prices. Truck owners are often able to take advantage of off-peak rates for charging. (~RMB 0.65/kWh.)

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

China's surging NEV truck sales were a big surprise in 2025. So, what about 2026? I've been looking into this. For one thing, fuel price changes look set to benefit NEVs versus diesel and LNG.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

The 15th Five-Year Plan commits to increasing the proportion of electrified transport overall, and especially in the truck sector. Not a lot of other policy details right now to guide the market. So, it's wait-and-see mode right now!

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Could Iran helps? Gasoline pump prices are up and there are reports of gas lines. EV makers plan lots of new vehicles, including ones with sodium-ion batteries for cold markets. But input prices are up too.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

The first months of the year are often the worst for NEVs, as buyers usually rush purchases at the end of the year to take advantage of subsidies.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

NEVs had a rough start to 2026: The overall domestic car market started the year with a decline of 19.1% (according to CPCA) data, but NEV domestic sales declined 25.7%. Exports were the main factor holding up the NEV industry.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

NEVs continued to slowly rise as a share of total vehicle stock, reaching 12% at the end of the year. In 2025, ICE vehicle stock grew at a far slower rate than in recent years, and plateaued in the 2H. This suggests retirements are picking up as China’s vehicle stock ages.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

That trend may well continue, given that subsidies are refocusing on longer-range vehicles and BEVs.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

In the passenger car segment, a shift away from PHEVs was notable. Starting in September, passenger PHEV sales began to show monthly sales declines. Falling battery prices and new BEV models have made such vehicles more attractive in larger vehicle segments.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

China’s domestic NEV sales have risen by at least 1.5 million per year since 2020, reaching a 51 per cent market share in new vehicles in 2025 (53 per cent for passenger cars). For 2026, domestic NEV sales growth is expected to slow, with sales penetration reaching between 55 and 60 per cent.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Indeed. Jan data will be interesting!

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

My big things to watch for '26 in NEVs: 👉Will the heavy truck trend continue, and will NEV trucks go head-to-head against LNG? 👉Will the passenger NEV slowdown continue, giving gasoline a lifeline? 👉Will the falling PHEV trend gather steam? 👉Will Na-ion enter in a big way?

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

One thing that makes the NEV heavy truck trend especially important for oil demand is the short lifetime of heavy trucks. Most estimates are around 7-8 years. Since there was a wave of replacements in 2019-21, another wave could be arriving soon.

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andershove.bsky.social @andershove.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

LNG heavy trucks and NEV trucks are strong in different regions. NEV truck ranges are rising but likely still not the best choice for the longest routes. LNG works best in areas with stranded LNG capacity and fuel infr. Some provinces are actually closing down LNG fueling stations!

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