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Austin Mock

@amock419.bsky.social
10K followers 197 following 2.4K posts

NFL & CFB projections, draft analytics, and Rev Share/NIL modeling for @TheAthletic. The game isn't played on a spreadsheet — but it helps to have one. 📊

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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Read here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/766...
nytimes.com
QBs under center, a tight end bonanza and coverage tricks among NFL trends we're watching
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
After four weeks, we have seen some trends regarding strategy in the NFL. I wrote about 4th downs and maybe coaches becoming more conservative but my colleagues added plenty more: - QBs under center - Defenses countering with blitzes - Coverages, TE usage, and penalties!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Read here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/766...
nytimes.com
QB Index leaderboard: Brock Purdy is your MVP; Bryce Young is even better than you think
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
QBI is starting to stabilize through four weeks. The leader? Brock Purdy. Also, notes on Justin Herbert, Bryce Young, and Josh Allen.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Big Ten Postgame Box Score Standings Luckiest team: Iowa (shocking, I know) Unluckiest team: Rutgers
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
SEC Postgame Box Score Standings Luckiest team: Texas A&M Unluckiest team: Oklahoma
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Rookie Splash Play Leaders through Week 4: David Bailey — 17 Jaishawn Barham — 16 Arvell Reese — 15 Gabe Jacas — 14.5 R Mason Thomas — 14 David Bailey and Arvell Reese in the top-3 to no surprise. I'm absolutely shocked by Jaishawn Barham finding is name on this list.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Splash Play Leaders through Week 4: Greg Rousseau — 47 Will Anderson Jr. — 40.5 Dallas Turner — 36.5 Aidan Hutchinson — 35.5 Maxx Crosby — 30 Greg Rousseau remains at the top of the board as his hot start to the season is still going.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
And the Falcons go right down the field and score a touchdown.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The issue with kicking here is that you're expecting your defense to hold the opponent when you've shown no ability to do so. Saints lost about 2% of win probability by kicking there.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
My model has this as a go for Dallas.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Bad day for the take the points crowd. A lot of touchdowns being scored instead of kicking field goals.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
A lot of fourth down aggressiveness in the early going. I like it.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Let’s have some more end game drama and overturn a kick that was good. Why not?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
College Football Week 4 Watchability Scores - The SEC dominates the top with two huge matchups - Ohio State/Iowa a little bit further down the list - The Big 12 👀
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Awesome stuff, Seth. Really cool.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
How do the biggest college football games of the weekend impact the College Football Playoff? - Florida at Missouri - Alabama at Mississippi State - Ohio State at Iowa - Miami at Clemson
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Didn’t Browns not learn from the Cowboys? Kick it short!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Watch here: youtu.be/gFm9TaRGEkc?...
youtu.be
NFL Week 4 Predictions: Every Game Through My Model | The War Room
YouTube video by Austin Mock
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The War Room | Episode 15 NFL Week 4 Breakdown - Rams/Eagles with NFC playoff implications - Jaguars upset? - Are the Patriots toast?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Read here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/764...
nytimes.com
Are the Raiders and Vikings frauds? What NFL Projection Model says about 3-0 teams
There are reasons to be suspicious about the Raiders' and Vikings' undefeated starts.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The Raiders and Vikings are 3-0. But are they for real? This week I dive into those two as well as the Bills, Chiefs, and 49ers to see if these starts are sustainable or if we are a victim to small sample size.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Watch here: youtu.be/NxmalHxRDfU?...
youtu.be
College Football Playoff Predictions Week 5: My Model's Odds for Every Contender | The War Room
YouTube video by Austin Mock
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The War Room | Episode 14 CFP Projections Week 5 - Oregon and Florida making jumps - Penn State and Michigan trip up New episode out now!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Brian Flores may have Ben Johnson’s number but Johnson certainly has Vic Fangio’s. What a performance tonight by Chicago.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Eagles have a -0.77 EPA per dropback and a 33% success rate against a poor Bears' defense. There are no answers in the pass game right now. Data from @SumerSports
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
My model's in agreement with Ben Johnson on that fourth down decision.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NFL Splash Play Leaders — Week 3 - A HUGE performance by Will Anderson Jr. - Mason Graham had himself a day - Malcolm Koonce and Maxx Crosby 👀
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Cowboys not making the Ravens return the kickoff is a costly mistake. It’s 2026 and multi-billion dollar franchises don’t know how to maximize win probability.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
That’s a horrible call on Nate Wiggins. We talk all the time about the defensive back needing to play the ball. CeeDee Lamb wasn’t playing the ball. That’s a garbage call.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The Bengals elected to not take the points and scored a touchdown instead.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What a grab by Kenyon Sadiq. Nice throw from Geno too.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
CFP Projections here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/int...
nytimes.com
2026 College Football Playoff projection bracket
Every team’s odds of earning each of the 12 playoff seeds, updating live throughout the 2026 College Football season.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
College Football Playoff Projections updated 🏈 - Florida 📈 - Texas 📈 - Oregon 📈 - Michigan 📉 - Penn State 📉 Who was your biggest winner or loser yesterday?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
If you need to get ready for the slate today, I broke down all the games on Thursday. Can watch here: youtu.be/_bFsqT28YFQ?...
youtu.be
NFL Week 3 Predictions: Every Game Through My Model | The War Room
YouTube video by Austin Mock
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Rookie Splash Play Leaders 2026 (through Week 2) Not shocked to see David Bailey at the top Hey, Dani Dennis-Sutton!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NFL Splash Play Leaders 2026 (through Week 2) Hello, Dallas Turner!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NFL and College Football Best Bets are up if you missed it. Just added a play this morning as well. www.nytimes.com/athletic/762... www.nytimes.com/athletic/762...
nytimes.com
NFL best bets Week 3: Is the Cowboys defense bad again?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Watch here: youtu.be/_bFsqT28YFQ?...
youtu.be
NFL Week 3 Predictions: Every Game Through My Model | The War Room
YouTube video by Austin Mock
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The War Room | Episode 13 Week 3 NFL Breakdown Talking through Chargers/Bills, Ravens/Cowboys, and Rams/Broncos as well as the entire board from my perspective. Model projections too!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Read here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/762...
nytimes.com
Panic time for the Chargers? What NFL Projection Model says about LA, other 0-2 teams
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Everyone knows 0-2 is dire. Historically, only about 12% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs. But the base rate isn't the story — the schedule is. I ran the Chargers' remaining slate through my Playoff Simulator: 12% to make the playoffs
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Watch here: youtu.be/27w9AcLci7Q?...
youtu.be
College Football Playoff Predictions: My Model's Odds for Every Contender | The War Room
YouTube video by Austin Mock
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The War Room | Episode 12 College Football Playoff Picture - Is half the field set? - A 9-3 SEC team a lock? - The Group of 6 race should be fun New episode out now!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
After the injury news for Jaxson Dart, the Giants playoff odds have dropped to 10%. NFL Playoff Odds here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/int...
nytimes.com
NFL Simulator 2026: Live forecast of the playoff picture and outcomes for every team
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
QB Stock Report is here with QBI inside: www.nytimes.com/athletic/761...
nytimes.com
Why 49ers’ Brock Purdy is still ‘so underrated’: NFL QB stock report
Week 3 of the QB stock report sees Purdy climb further up the rankings, and Saints QB Tyler Shough continues his ascent, as well
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
How much of the 49ers' success on offense is Brock Purdy? Or Kyle Shanahan? It's a tough question but there is no doubt that Purdy is excelling in his situation after a flawless performance this week. QBI has him as the highest graded signal caller through two weeks.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Read here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/761...
nytimes.com
To kick or receive: What should NFL teams do after winning the overtime coin toss?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
To kick or receive? The Colts made their choice and the debate on whether it was right rages on. And then to kick on 4th and 8? Hmm. I took a dive into the data for some overtime decision in the NFL’s new format. I agree with one Steichen decision but not the other.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I can say that pretty much any player picked after Hampton would have been a better decision.
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