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Austin Mock

@amock419.bsky.social
10K followers 197 following 2.4K posts

NFL & CFB projections, draft analytics, and Rev Share/NIL modeling for @TheAthletic. The game isn't played on a spreadsheet — but it helps to have one. 📊

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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 4h
The War Room | Episode 15 NFL Week 4 Breakdown - Rams/Eagles with NFC playoff implications - Jaguars upset? - Are the Patriots toast?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 7h
The Raiders and Vikings are 3-0. But are they for real? This week I dive into those two as well as the Bills, Chiefs, and 49ers to see if these starts are sustainable or if we are a victim to small sample size.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The War Room | Episode 14 CFP Projections Week 5 - Oregon and Florida making jumps - Penn State and Michigan trip up New episode out now!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Brian Flores may have Ben Johnson’s number but Johnson certainly has Vic Fangio’s. What a performance tonight by Chicago.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Eagles have a -0.77 EPA per dropback and a 33% success rate against a poor Bears' defense. There are no answers in the pass game right now. Data from @SumerSports
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
My model's in agreement with Ben Johnson on that fourth down decision.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NFL Splash Play Leaders — Week 3 - A HUGE performance by Will Anderson Jr. - Mason Graham had himself a day - Malcolm Koonce and Maxx Crosby 👀
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Cowboys not making the Ravens return the kickoff is a costly mistake. It’s 2026 and multi-billion dollar franchises don’t know how to maximize win probability.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
That’s a horrible call on Nate Wiggins. We talk all the time about the defensive back needing to play the ball. CeeDee Lamb wasn’t playing the ball. That’s a garbage call.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The Bengals elected to not take the points and scored a touchdown instead.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
What a grab by Kenyon Sadiq. Nice throw from Geno too.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
College Football Playoff Projections updated 🏈 - Florida 📈 - Texas 📈 - Oregon 📈 - Michigan 📉 - Penn State 📉 Who was your biggest winner or loser yesterday?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
If you need to get ready for the slate today, I broke down all the games on Thursday. Can watch here: youtu.be/_bFsqT28YFQ?...
youtu.be
NFL Week 3 Predictions: Every Game Through My Model | The War Room
YouTube video by Austin Mock
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Rookie Splash Play Leaders 2026 (through Week 2) Not shocked to see David Bailey at the top Hey, Dani Dennis-Sutton!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NFL Splash Play Leaders 2026 (through Week 2) Hello, Dallas Turner!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NFL and College Football Best Bets are up if you missed it. Just added a play this morning as well. www.nytimes.com/athletic/762... www.nytimes.com/athletic/762...
nytimes.com
NFL best bets Week 3: Is the Cowboys defense bad again?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The War Room | Episode 13 Week 3 NFL Breakdown Talking through Chargers/Bills, Ravens/Cowboys, and Rams/Broncos as well as the entire board from my perspective. Model projections too!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Everyone knows 0-2 is dire. Historically, only about 12% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs. But the base rate isn't the story — the schedule is. I ran the Chargers' remaining slate through my Playoff Simulator: 12% to make the playoffs
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The War Room | Episode 12 College Football Playoff Picture - Is half the field set? - A 9-3 SEC team a lock? - The Group of 6 race should be fun New episode out now!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
After the injury news for Jaxson Dart, the Giants playoff odds have dropped to 10%. NFL Playoff Odds here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/int...
nytimes.com
NFL Simulator 2026: Live forecast of the playoff picture and outcomes for every team
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
How much of the 49ers' success on offense is Brock Purdy? Or Kyle Shanahan? It's a tough question but there is no doubt that Purdy is excelling in his situation after a flawless performance this week. QBI has him as the highest graded signal caller through two weeks.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
To kick or receive? The Colts made their choice and the debate on whether it was right rages on. And then to kick on 4th and 8? Hmm. I took a dive into the data for some overtime decision in the NFL’s new format. I agree with one Steichen decision but not the other.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The Chargers might be on Jeremiah Smith watch.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
It's wild how bad the Chargers are right now. It's every aspect of the offense and I'm not even sure about the defense. And they haven't even played the hard part of the schedule yet!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Are we still ok with the Chargers drafting Omarion Hampton in the first round with the state of that roster?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The Raiders are winning too much. They're going to lose the opportunity to draft Jeremiah Smith.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
QBI got a lot of crap for having Marcus Mariota similar to Jayden Daniels in 2025. I'm not sure if I love him without an OL but let's see what Mariota has against a poor Cowboys' defense.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Tom Brady with an "Oh shit" because that's what every single person just said while watching that replay.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Can't overthrow that ball, Jayden.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Jets and Titans are frisky against playoff hopeful teams but end up improving their draft position.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
They missed an obvious facemask on the Shough sneak but I think they missed a false start on New Orleans too.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Kellen Moore elected to not take the points and scored a touchdown instead.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Dave Canales elected to not take the points and scored a touchdown instead.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The War Room | Episode 11 NFL Week 2 Breakdown Had some technical difficulties this week but finally got this up. I breakdown the slate so if you need some quick analysis, here it is.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
lol Trinidad
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
It’s hard to play better than what Trinidad Chambliss is doing right now. Just surgical against this LSU defense.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
An underrated part of the NC State disaster is that they chose not to spread out the defense which gave them less time to dance around.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
College Football Week 3 Watchability Scores LSU/Ole Miss at the top because what else would be there?
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Before we kick off today, take a moment to hear about how I tried to put a valuation on every Power-4 college football roster. It’s a difficult problem but a fun project that I think yielded pretty good results.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Lions should rest Gibbs at this point. The defense has no chance tonight. Keep Gibbs fresh for the future.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Joe Brady 2nd and 1 shot play 👀 3rd and 1 conversion
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Rousseau back at it again tonight.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NFL Rookie Splash Play Leaders — Week 1, 2026: Anthony Hill Jr. — 6 David Bailey — 5 Josiah Trotter — 5 R Mason Thomas — 4 Sonny Styles — 4 Gabe Jacas, Aaron Hall, and Domonique Orange were all impressive on a per snap basis.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
How much does Alabama's roster cost? And how does that compare to the rest of the SEC? What about Penn State in comparison to the Big Ten? Read here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/int...
nytimes.com
Does your college football roster cost $8M or $50M? Here’s our report on 68 teams
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
NFL Splash Play Leaders — Week 1, 2026: Greg Rousseau — 13 Aidan Hutchinson — 13 Dallasa Turner — 12 Kwity Paye — 11 T.J. Watt — 10 Anthony Hill Jr. led all rookies with six splash plays.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Pretty awesome stuff from our college team on roster valuations across college football. I’ll have something coming on this later in the week as well. And of course, incredible graphics to visualize the data. Give it a read!
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
NFL Best Bets Week 2 🏈 - Totals galore this week - More to add later in the week Last year: 41-29, +9.77u +12.8% ROI
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I hate the hand going forward rule. Feel like we need to change that. If the ball doesn’t leave your hand and someone knocks it out, it has to be a fumble. In no way is it still a pass when it’s in your hand.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Not sure what Nix saw there. Delane had Sutton blanketed there.
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Austin Mock @amock419.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Sonny Styles just obliterated Saquon.
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