Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/09/2026It’s never just “do what the rules tell you to do”, or just “do what your predecessors used to do”, or just “follow your instincts, do whatever you want”. It is always a combination of them. 010
Reposted by Amni RusliAmni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 04/09/2026New Post! What Waller Wishes eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-walle...eightateeight.substack.comWhat Waller WishesBecause long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate; that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two... 011
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 04/09/2026New Post! What Waller Wishes eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-walle...eightateeight.substack.comWhat Waller WishesBecause long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate; that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two... 011
Reposted by Amni RusliAmni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 31/08/2026New Post! What Warsh Withheld eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-warsh...eightateeight.substack.comWhat Warsh WithheldComments on Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech 111
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 31/08/2026New Post! What Warsh Withheld eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-warsh...eightateeight.substack.comWhat Warsh WithheldComments on Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech 111
Reposted by Amni RusliAmni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/08/2026New post! The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap eightateeight.substack.com/p/the-curiou...eightateeight.substack.comThe Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap“Haste still pays haste, and leisure answers leisure; 032
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/08/2026New post! The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap eightateeight.substack.com/p/the-curiou...eightateeight.substack.comThe Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap“Haste still pays haste, and leisure answers leisure; 032
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 18/07/2026New Post! The Death of Forward Guidance: Why the Federal Reserve’s retreat from clear communication matters open.substack.com/pub/eightate...open.substack.comThe Death of Forward GuidanceWhy the Federal Reserve’s retreat from clear communication matters 010
Reposted by Amni RusliAmni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026There are established econometric tools, e.g. Markov regime-switching models, to distinguish transitory from persistent inflation shocks. Recent data place us on the borderline of a shift towards greater persistence. 111
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026To clarify: “transitory” vs “persistent” describes inflation’s response to shocks, not the shocks themselves. That response can shift from transitory to persistent if a shock lingers or if overlapping shocks have cumulative effects. 000
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026The positive news: if the Fed gives credible commitment to restoring price stability signals, resolve to do whatever it takes, this need not become entrenched. 100
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026There are established econometric tools, e.g. Markov regime-switching models, to distinguish transitory from persistent inflation shocks. Recent data place us on the borderline of a shift towards greater persistence. 111
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Greenspan was an avid consumer of data but even more valuable was his economic insights that stemmed from intuition rather than textbook interpretation of the data, although he personally saw himself as more of an analyst rather than an intuitive policymaker. 120
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Greenspan was an avid consumer of data but even more valuable was his economic insights that stemmed from intuition rather than textbook interpretation of the data, although he personally saw himself as more of an analyst rather than an intuitive policymaker. 010
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026calibrates market reactions, and preserves the smooth transmission of policy. Without it, the Fed’s influence over financial conditions grows both weaker and more volatile. #EconSky #Fed #Warsh #ForwardGuidance 010
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026extreme price movements become more likely precisely because uncertainty about the central bank’s response has increased. Forward guidance is not just ancillary commentary; it is the principal instrument through which the central bank anchors expectations, 110
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026“Gradualism” in communication is therefore not stylistic conservatism; it is a deliberate technique to avoid unnecessary volatility. Financial stability is placed at greater risk the less clearly the market can discern the Fed’s reaction function. In such an environment, 100
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026This is why previous Fed statements evolved their language only gradually: retained sentences signal that a concern remains live, while the removal or softening of particular phrases indicates that conditions have shifted. 100
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026When risks are balanced, nuance becomes essential. Markets will not react proportionately unless they understand both the logic and the sequencing of policy decisions, as well as the shifting weight of focus du jour. 100
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026At that point, markedly reduced communication will produce greater dispersion in market expectations and weaken the transmission of policy to financial conditions, precisely the channel the Fed seeks to influence. 100
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026Warsh’s preference for a “less is more” approach to communication is tolerable for now, given that the balance of risks has tilted, clear to all and sundry, towards inflation. However, this latitude will disappear once the risks to the dual mandate return to a more even balance. 110
Reposted by Amni RusliAmni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Are we back to Montagu Norman, who viewed monetary policy as an “arcane and esoteric art, best practiced out of public view”? “Never explain, never excuse!” was his motto. #Fed #Warsh 041
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Are we back to Montagu Norman, who viewed monetary policy as an “arcane and esoteric art, best practiced out of public view”? “Never explain, never excuse!” was his motto. #Fed #Warsh 041
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/05/2026Financial conditions: loose, with slight tightening in the past few weeks 020
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/05/2026Inflation expectations: stable, well-anchored slightly above target 100
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/04/2026Tusk warned that Russia could attack an alliance member in ‘months’ 😬 100
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026May be of interest? Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed open.substack.com/pub/eightate...open.substack.comKevin Warsh and The Fate of The FedWhen I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid... 010
Reposted by Amni RusliAmni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026New Post! Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...open.substack.comKevin Warsh and The Fate of The FedWhen I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid... 012
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026New Post! Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...open.substack.comKevin Warsh and The Fate of The FedWhen I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid... 012
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/04/2026Might appeal to some loconundrum.aaronc.ccloconundrum.aaronc.ccLoconundrumA daily game: can you guess the UK rail station? 010
Reposted by Amni RusliAmni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026New post! Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks open.substack.com/pub/eightate...open.substack.comKey Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic ShocksRecovering from the Covid-related economic shock, and not yet having fully absorbed the Trump tariff shock, we must now contend with the Iran war. 141
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026New post! Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks open.substack.com/pub/eightate...open.substack.comKey Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic ShocksRecovering from the Covid-related economic shock, and not yet having fully absorbed the Trump tariff shock, we must now contend with the Iran war. 141
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 28/03/2026May be of interest acoup.blog/2026/03/25/m...acoup.blogMiscellanea: The War in IranThis post is a set of my observations on the current war in Iran and my thoughts on the broader strategic implications. I am not, of course, an expert on the region nor do I have access to any spec… 020
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Warsh can conceal his bias so long as the risks remain balanced between the mandates. However, once the risks tilt towards inflation, he’ll face a critical decision: whether to vote in favour of immediately addressing inflation risk, or to ignore it for as long as he can to avoid Trump’s wrath 😬 030