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Amni Rusli

@amnirusli.bsky.social
2.1K followers 2.9K following 680 posts

Quant, Economist. I write about the US monetary policy at eightateeight.substack.com and about trade at eighttradeeight.substack.com

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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
From my latest post
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
It’s never just “do what the rules tell you to do”, or just “do what your predecessors used to do”, or just “follow your instincts, do whatever you want”. It is always a combination of them.
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
New Post! What Waller Wishes eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-walle...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Waller Wishes
Because long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate; that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
New Post! What Waller Wishes eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-walle...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Waller Wishes
Because long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate; that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two...
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
New Post! What Warsh Withheld eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-warsh...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Warsh Withheld
Comments on Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
New Post! What Warsh Withheld eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-warsh...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Warsh Withheld
Comments on Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
New post! The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap eightateeight.substack.com/p/the-curiou...
eightateeight.substack.com
The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap
“Haste still pays haste, and leisure answers leisure;
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
New post! The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap eightateeight.substack.com/p/the-curiou...
eightateeight.substack.com
The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap
“Haste still pays haste, and leisure answers leisure;
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
New Post! The Death of Forward Guidance: Why the Federal Reserve’s retreat from clear communication matters open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
The Death of Forward Guidance
Why the Federal Reserve’s retreat from clear communication matters
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
There are established econometric tools, e.g. Markov regime-switching models, to distinguish transitory from persistent inflation shocks. Recent data place us on the borderline of a shift towards greater persistence.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
To clarify: “transitory” vs “persistent” describes inflation’s response to shocks, not the shocks themselves. That response can shift from transitory to persistent if a shock lingers or if overlapping shocks have cumulative effects.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The positive news: if the Fed gives credible commitment to restoring price stability signals, resolve to do whatever it takes, this need not become entrenched.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
There are established econometric tools, e.g. Markov regime-switching models, to distinguish transitory from persistent inflation shocks. Recent data place us on the borderline of a shift towards greater persistence.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan was an avid consumer of data but even more valuable was his economic insights that stemmed from intuition rather than textbook interpretation of the data, although he personally saw himself as more of an analyst rather than an intuitive policymaker.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan 2001 // From GS Archive
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan 1999 //From GS archive
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan was an avid consumer of data but even more valuable was his economic insights that stemmed from intuition rather than textbook interpretation of the data, although he personally saw himself as more of an analyst rather than an intuitive policymaker.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
calibrates market reactions, and preserves the smooth transmission of policy. Without it, the Fed’s influence over financial conditions grows both weaker and more volatile. #EconSky #Fed #Warsh #ForwardGuidance
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
extreme price movements become more likely precisely because uncertainty about the central bank’s response has increased. Forward guidance is not just ancillary commentary; it is the principal instrument through which the central bank anchors expectations,
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
“Gradualism” in communication is therefore not stylistic conservatism; it is a deliberate technique to avoid unnecessary volatility. Financial stability is placed at greater risk the less clearly the market can discern the Fed’s reaction function. In such an environment,
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
This is why previous Fed statements evolved their language only gradually: retained sentences signal that a concern remains live, while the removal or softening of particular phrases indicates that conditions have shifted.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
When risks are balanced, nuance becomes essential. Markets will not react proportionately unless they understand both the logic and the sequencing of policy decisions, as well as the shifting weight of focus du jour.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
At that point, markedly reduced communication will produce greater dispersion in market expectations and weaken the transmission of policy to financial conditions, precisely the channel the Fed seeks to influence.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Warsh’s preference for a “less is more” approach to communication is tolerable for now, given that the balance of risks has tilted, clear to all and sundry, towards inflation. However, this latitude will disappear once the risks to the dual mandate return to a more even balance.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Are we back to Montagu Norman, who viewed monetary policy as an “arcane and esoteric art, best practiced out of public view”? “Never explain, never excuse!” was his motto. #Fed #Warsh
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Are we back to Montagu Norman, who viewed monetary policy as an “arcane and esoteric art, best practiced out of public view”? “Never explain, never excuse!” was his motto. #Fed #Warsh
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Financial conditions: loose, with slight tightening in the past few weeks
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Inflation expectations: stable, well-anchored slightly above target
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
I’m surprised you remember! 😂
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Congrats Tomas!
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
From my post
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Tusk warned that Russia could attack an alliance member in ‘months’ 😬
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
From my post
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
May be of interest? Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed
When I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid...
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New Post! Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed
When I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New Post! Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed
When I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
From my post #EconSky
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Might appeal to some loconundrum.aaronc.cc
loconundrum.aaronc.cc
Loconundrum
A daily game: can you guess the UK rail station?
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New post! Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks
Recovering from the Covid-related economic shock, and not yet having fully absorbed the Trump tariff shock, we must now contend with the Iran war.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
From my post
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
ICYMI open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
The diagram #EconSky
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New post! Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks
Recovering from the Covid-related economic shock, and not yet having fully absorbed the Trump tariff shock, we must now contend with the Iran war.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
May be of interest acoup.blog/2026/03/25/m...
acoup.blog
Miscellanea: The War in Iran
This post is a set of my observations on the current war in Iran and my thoughts on the broader strategic implications. I am not, of course, an expert on the region nor do I have access to any spec…
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
From Michael Nielsen
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
😔
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
☺️
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Warsh can conceal his bias so long as the risks remain balanced between the mandates. However, once the risks tilt towards inflation, he’ll face a critical decision: whether to vote in favour of immediately addressing inflation risk, or to ignore it for as long as he can to avoid Trump’s wrath 😬
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