Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Do you defend marriage or respect it? If the question is confusing, just remember that the Defense of Marriage Act banned same-sex marriage, and the Respect for Marriage Act allows it. 160
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/09/2026In 1992, only 28% of Americans said gay couples should be allowed to adopt children. But support grew quickly: by 2008 it was above 50%, and in 2024 it was above 80%. 240
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Which comes first, public opinion or policy? That's a recurring question in my book-in-progress, You Would Choose Now. Here's an example from Chapter 2. In 1992, a majority of Americans — about 61% — said gays and lesbians should be allowed to serve in the armed forces. 131
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 06/09/2026In 1988, when the American National Election Studies first asked about laws protecting gays and lesbians from job discrimination, opposition was already below 50%. But even in 2020, when opposition was below 20%, discrimination was still legal in 31 states. 120
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/08/2026The online version of Think Java is interactive now -- all of the examples run in the browser! Here's the announcement, with a couple of examples: www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/08... Huge shout out to Think Java co-author Chris Mayfield, who developed java-runner to support this feature. 061
Reposted by Allen DowneyPyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Enrollment is closing this week for our Applied Bayesian Modeling course, starting August 10. Join Christopher Fonnesbeck and @allendowney.bsky.social for 8 live sessions covering PyMC, MCMC, hierarchical modeling, and causal inference. Secure your spot: dub.sh/do8Hrox #Bayesian #PyMC 012
Reposted by Allen DowneyPyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 30/07/2026How do you count what you can’t see? Simple models miss unobserved cases in disease outbreaks. Here's how @allendowney.bsky.social uses Bayesian inference to build a model that quantifies uncertainty 👇 allendowney.github.io/ThinkBayes2/... #Bayesian #PyMC #DataScienceallendowney.github.ioTracking an Outbreak with Mark and Recapture — Think Bayes 121
Reposted by Allen DowneyPyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 07/07/2026Registration is open for the August cohort of Applied #Bayesian Modeling, live with Allen Downey (@allendowney.bsky.social) and Chris Fonnesbeck (@fonnesbeck.bsky.social) 4 weeks, 8 sessions in #PyMC: priors, MCMC, hierarchical models, causal inference, time series. Enroll: dub.sh/abm-bluesky-... 061
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 16/06/2026In 2016 Barack Obama claimed "If you had to choose one moment in history in which you could be born, and you didn’t know ahead of time who you were going to be ... you’d choose right now." Do the data agree with him? www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/06...allendowney.comYou Would Choose Now - Probably Overthinking ItIn 2016, Barack Obama gave a commencement address at Howard University, where he said If you had to choose one moment in history in which you could be born, and you didn’t know ahead of time who you w... 040
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 15/06/2026Video from my ODSC talk is up now. Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models: What Drives the Life Expectancy Gap? Thanks to ODSC for a great conference and to my collaborators at AIBM and PyMC Labs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrMQ...youtube.comCounterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models by Allen Downey, PhDYouTube video by Open Data Science and AI Conference 070
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 12/06/2026Latest in my series on polarization and culture wars: * For now, liberals are more trusting than other groups * But trust in the most recent cohorts is plummeting In a fight between cohort and period effects, cohort effects win eventually www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/06...allendowney.comWho Is More Trusting: Liberals or Conservatives? - Probably Overthinking ItWhen I go crawling around in data from the General Social Survey, sooner or later I run into Ryan Burge, who writes Graphs About Religion. In his most recent post, he wrote about changes in interperso... 050
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 11/06/2026The median daily income where countries drop below replacement fertility has fallen from about $32 per day in 1950 to about $8 now. allendowney.substack.com/p/the-low-fe...allendowney.substack.comThe Low-fertility Club Is Becoming Less ExclusiveThe median daily income where countries drop below replacement fertility has fallen from about $32 per day in 1950 to about $8 now. 010
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 28/05/2026Opposition to premarital sex and same-sex relations has declined. Opposition to teen sex and extramarital affairs has (mostly) not. Why the difference? Here's the first of two attempts to answer: www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/05... 010
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/05/2026The recent decline of confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court is noteworthy. Here's the latest in a series of articles using period-cohort analysis to look at changes in public opinion over the last 50 years. www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/05... 010
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 01/05/2026This week's post is two-for-one: 1) Report from my ODSC talk on the life expectancy gender gap 2) An overthought answer to a Reddit question: when is middle age. www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/05...allendowney.comPlanning for your midlife crisis - Probably Overthinking ItYesterday I presented a talk at ODSC East 2026, called “Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models: What Drives the Life Expectancy Gap?” Here’s the abstract Across nearly every country in the world... 030
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 25/03/2026How Much of the Life Expectancy Gap Could We Close? In the U.S. it might be more than half (More countries in the next post) allendowney.substack.com/p/how-much-o... 020
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/03/2026Young adults are less happy than previous generations -- by a lot www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/03...allendowney.comYoung Adults Are Not Very Happy - Probably Overthinking ItSince 1972, the General Social Survey has asked respondents: “Taken all together, how would you say things are these days—would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?” The fo... 030
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 11/12/2025Thanks to my friends at @datascienceweekly for featuring Probably Overthinking It ... now available in paperback! 171
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 04/12/2025Probably Overthinking It is now available in paperback. To celebrate, I'm publishing The Lost Chapter, which is about the strangest paradox in probability, the girl named Florida problem. The key to the problem is Captain Chelsea Sullenberger. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/12...allendowney.comThe Lost Chapter - Probably Overthinking ItI’m happy to report that Probably Overthinking It is available now in paperback. If you would like a copy, you can order from Bookshop.org and Amazon (affiliate links). To celebrate, I’m publishing Th... 030
Reposted by Allen DowneyPyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 01/12/2025Modeling the SAT Math Gap with #PyMC Why do male test takers score ~30 points higher? Ability or selection bias? At PyData Boston 2025, @allendowney.bsky.social shows how Bayesian modeling untangles confounding to reveal what’s real. #BayesianModeling #DataScience 011
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 04/11/2025“I’m way closer to LeBron James than you are to me.” -- Brian Scalabrine He's probably right, because in a lognormal distribution of ability, it's levels to this … www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/11...allendowney.comIt's Levels - Probably Overthinking ItA recent Reddit post asks “Amateur athletes of Reddit: what’s your ‘There’s levels to this shit’ experience from your sport?” Responses included: We have some good runners who can win local races … An... 051
Reposted by Allen DowneyDaniel Slutsky @daslu.bsky.social · 02/11/2025The #Scicloj group is initiating a new study group: #DSP in #Clojure. We will follow @allendowney.bsky.social's #ThinkDSP book and practice it in Clojure. clojureverse.org/t/clojure-ds...clojureverse.orgClojure DSP meeting 2025-11-02Once in a while, a few of the Scicloj freinds will meet to learn about signal processing, following the Think DSP book by Allen B. Downey, and implementing things in Clojure. Our notes will be publish... 042
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 29/10/2025The newest chapter of Think Linear Algebra is up now! It is about least squares regression, QR decomposition, and orthogonality: allendowney.github.io/ThinkLinearA... 0164
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 27/10/2025Five-year survival rates might be the most misleading statistics in medicine. Even smart people can make incorrect inferences. Here are the top four: 1. If a patient is diagnosed early, it is tempting to think the probability is 91% that they will survive five years after diagnosis. 102
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/10/2025The original sin of the engineering curriculum is the Foundation Fallacy: The assumption that math (especially calculus) and science (especially physics) are (1) the foundations of engineering, and therefore (2) the prerequisites of engineering education. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/10...allendowney.comThe Foundation Fallacy - Probably Overthinking ItAt Olin College recently, I met with a group from the Kyiv School of Economics who are creating a new engineering program. I am very impressed with the work they are doing, and their persistence despi... 2100
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/10/2025I just posted a new chapter of Think Linear Algebra. It's about projection, rejection, rotation, and pool! allendowney.github.io/ThinkLinearA... 0112
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 16/10/2025I love a good Simpson's paradox. Sadly, this is not one of them www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/10... In fact, I think the whole paper is nonsense. Published in Nature, too.allendowney.comSimpson's What? - Probably Overthinking ItI like Simpson’s paradox so much I wrote three chapters about it in Probably Overthinking It. In fact, I like it so much I have a Google alert that notifies me when someone publishes a new example (or... 2132
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 03/10/2025Sadly, my primary team (the Red Sox) and emergency backup team (the Padres) were both knocked out of the playoffs yesterday. Now I am left to cheer for my team of last resort (the Notyankees). 120
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 26/09/2025Sometimes we can use Bayesian methods to infer the effect of selection bias and produce an unbiased estimate. Here's an example that uses PyMC to solve a classic probability puzzle (the image shows what I think is the original version). www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/09... 082
Reposted by Allen DowneyJer Thorp @jerthorp.bsky.social · 24/09/2025At this point I'm just barely making enough $ on this cohort to cover the platform fees. It's going to run anyway but I'd really love to have a few more people signed up. Use the code SIXTY for 60% off at registration. 178
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/09/2025I have published five new chapters of Think Linear Algebra! Read about the project here allendowney.com/blog/2025/09... Or jump straight to the book allendowney.github.io/ThinkLinearA... And now… Asteroids! 092
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/08/2025On September 3 I'm giving a talk for the Boston Python User Group, called "A Future of Data Science" www.meetup.com/bostonpython... This is a talk from posit::conf last year, updated with new data and the experience of an interesting year.meetup.comPresentation Night: A future of data science (Allen Downey), Wed, Sep 3, 2025, 6:00 PM | Meetup**A future of data science** *Allen Downey* In the hype cycle of data science, I suggest that the "peak of inflated expectations" was in 2012, the "trough of disillusionme 0133
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 13/08/2025Between 2021 and 2024, marijuana was legalized in eight states totaling 18% of the US population. During this time, adult use increased and youth use was unchanged. Data from NSDUH 2024. 010
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/07/2025As a graduate of an all-boys high school, I am very interested to see the results... 010
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/07/2025For anyone who likes LLMs and daytime game shows. 062
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 23/07/2025Some news articles suggest young men are conservative Republicans with sexist attitudes. But big picture, young men's views are pretty much on trend. Here's the data: allendowney.substack.com/p/are-young-...allendowney.substack.comAre Young Men Veering Right? Not really.On most issues, gender gaps are small and not much different among young and older people 051
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/07/2025We're kicking off this new workshop on August 5. 010
Reposted by Allen DowneyPyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 14/07/2025Everyone can do ML. Few can do Bayesian modeling. Set yourself apart with skills that drive deeper insight + better decisions. Join the next Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop by PyMC Labs. Hands-on. Practical. Real-world. 📅 Limited seats → dub.link/bayes-workshop #PyMC 142
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 07/07/2025ChatGPT and I think that "AI tools are shifting the boundary of what’s viable, and that’s likely to increase the net demand for software development, not decrease it." More Viable Projects = More Things to Build chatgpt.com/share/686c2e... 041
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 07/07/2025Starting August 5, PyMC Labs is running a new workshop on Bayesian modeling in PyMC -- and I'm one of the instructors. If you want to get started with Bayesian stats, this is your chance! See below for details. 010
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 29/05/2025At PyData Boston last night, I announced a new project: Think Linear Algebra! This blog post explains the idea, including a sample chapter and a terrible AI-generated cover. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/05...allendowney.comAnnouncing Think Linear Algebra - Probably Overthinking ItI’ve been thinking about Think Linear Algebra for more than a decade, and recently I started working on it in earnest. If you want to get a sense of it, I’ve posted a draft chapter as a Jupyter notebo... 3222
Reposted by Allen DowneyPyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 14/05/2025Can LLMs answer open-ended survey questions like real people? 🧠 @allendowney.bsky.social tested GPT-4, Claude & others on 2020 ANES data. Models matched the order of top concerns—but often cited issues (like inflation) that weren’t big then. Useful, but not time-aware. 👉 dub.link/synth-respon...dub.linkCan Synthetic Consumers Answer Open-Ended Questions? - PyMC Labs 021
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 28/04/2025My Think Stats hard copy has arrived! Here's what's new in the third edition: allendowney.github.io/ThinkStats/c... 1240
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/04/2025Time Series Analysis with StatsModels Video from my PyData Global tutorial is up now: www.youtube.com/watch?v=foMb...youtube.comAllen Downey - Time Series Analysis with StatsModels | PyData Global 2024YouTube video by PyData 095
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 07/04/2025Think Stats 3e is on its way to the printer! (And available to pre-order) Here's the new cover, with a suspicious-looking archerfish. Blog post with the details: www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/04... 2225
Reposted by Allen DowneyPyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 31/03/2025How close are LLMs to modeling real human behavior? We tested GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, and others on actual survey data (GSS-style). Some were shockingly human-like, others flopped 📊 Full results + methods → dub.link/synth-consum... 🤝 Exploring synthetic consumers? Let’s chat: info@pymc-labs.com 043
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 26/03/2025At PyMC Labs I've been working with a group developing synthetic consumers for marketing research. We just published this white paper with an overview of work in this space -- and we have a blog post coming next week with some experimental results. www.pymc-labs.com/blog-posts/s...pymc-labs.comSynthetic Consumers: The Promise, The Reality, and The Future - PyMC Labs 072
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 25/03/2025People born in the 1990s and 2000s have fewer children than previous generations at the same ages -- new data from NSFG. If circumstances prevent them from having the children they want, these trends might change. But it looks like they just want fewer. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/03...allendowney.comYoung Adults Want Fewer Children - Probably Overthinking ItThe most recent data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) provides a first look at people born in the 2000s as young adults and an updated view of people born in the 1990s at the peak of t... 250
Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 02/03/2025This Upshot article is very good -- and it cites a related article I worked on: aibm.org/commentary/n...aibm.orgNo, young men are not turning away from gender equality - American Institute for Boys and MenBut like many women, they have mixed feelings about feminism. 042