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Allen Downey

@allendowney.bsky.social
5.1K followers 78 following 203 posts

Former professor at Olin College, principal data scientist at PyMC Labs, author of Think Python, and Probably Overthinking It -- blog and book -- and stark raving Bayesian.

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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Do you defend marriage or respect it? If the question is confusing, just remember that the Defense of Marriage Act banned same-sex marriage, and the Respect for Marriage Act allows it.
Line chart titled “Should same-sex couples have the right to marry?” Subtitle “Percent supporting marriage rights,” GSS. Estimated support rises from about 12% in 1988 to about 66% by 2020, then levels off through 2024, with a shaded uncertainty band around the time-series line and survey points as dots.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
In 1992, only 28% of Americans said gay couples should be allowed to adopt children. But support grew quickly: by 2008 it was above 50%, and in 2024 it was above 80%.
Line chart titled “Should gay couples be allowed to adopt?” Subtitle “Percent favoring adoption rights,” ANES 1992–2024. Estimated support rises from roughly 28% in 1992 to about 81% by 2024, with a shaded uncertainty band around the time-series line and survey points as dots.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Which comes first, public opinion or policy? That's a recurring question in my book-in-progress, You Would Choose Now. Here's an example from Chapter 2. In 1992, a majority of Americans — about 61% — said gays and lesbians should be allowed to serve in the armed forces.
Line chart titled “Allow homosexuals to serve in the military?” Subtitle “Percent in favor,” ANES 1992–2012. Estimated support rises from roughly 61% in 1992 to about 85% by 2012, with a shaded uncertainty band around the time-series line and survey points as dots.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
In 1988, when the American National Election Studies first asked about laws protecting gays and lesbians from job discrimination, opposition was already below 50%. But even in 2020, when opposition was below 20%, discrimination was still legal in 31 states.
Line chart titled “Laws protecting gays from job discrimination?” Percent opposing, ANES, about 1988–2024. Estimated opposition falls from roughly 45% in the late 1980s to under 20% by the 2020s, with a shaded uncertainty band around the time-series line and survey points as dots.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
The online version of Think Java is interactive now -- all of the examples run in the browser! Here's the announcement, with a couple of examples: www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/08... Huge shout out to Think Java co-author Chris Mayfield, who developed java-runner to support this feature.
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Enrollment is closing this week for our Applied Bayesian Modeling course, starting August 10. Join Christopher Fonnesbeck and @allendowney.bsky.social for 8 live sessions covering PyMC, MCMC, hierarchical modeling, and causal inference. Secure your spot: dub.sh/do8Hrox #Bayesian #PyMC
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
How do you count what you can’t see? Simple models miss unobserved cases in disease outbreaks. Here's how @allendowney.bsky.social uses Bayesian inference to build a model that quantifies uncertainty 👇 allendowney.github.io/ThinkBayes2/... #Bayesian #PyMC #DataScience
allendowney.github.io
Tracking an Outbreak with Mark and Recapture — Think Bayes
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Registration is open for the August cohort of Applied #Bayesian Modeling, live with Allen Downey (@allendowney.bsky.social) and Chris Fonnesbeck (@fonnesbeck.bsky.social) 4 weeks, 8 sessions in #PyMC: priors, MCMC, hierarchical models, causal inference, time series. Enroll: dub.sh/abm-bluesky-...
Applied Bayesian Modeling Course By PyMC Labs
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
In 2016 Barack Obama claimed "If you had to choose one moment in history in which you could be born, and you didn’t know ahead of time who you were going to be ... you’d choose right now." Do the data agree with him? www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/06...
allendowney.com
You Would Choose Now - Probably Overthinking It
In 2016, Barack Obama gave a commencement address at Howard University, where he said If you had to choose one moment in history in which you could be born, and you didn’t know ahead of time who you w...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Video from my ODSC talk is up now. Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models: What Drives the Life Expectancy Gap? Thanks to ODSC for a great conference and to my collaborators at AIBM and PyMC Labs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrMQ...
youtube.com
Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models by Allen Downey, PhD
YouTube video by Open Data Science and AI Conference
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Latest in my series on polarization and culture wars: * For now, liberals are more trusting than other groups * But trust in the most recent cohorts is plummeting In a fight between cohort and period effects, cohort effects win eventually www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/06...
allendowney.com
Who Is More Trusting: Liberals or Conservatives? - Probably Overthinking It
When I go crawling around in data from the General Social Survey, sooner or later I run into Ryan Burge, who writes Graphs About Religion. In his most recent post, he wrote about changes in interperso...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
The median daily income where countries drop below replacement fertility has fallen from about $32 per day in 1950 to about $8 now. allendowney.substack.com/p/the-low-fe...
allendowney.substack.com
The Low-fertility Club Is Becoming Less Exclusive
The median daily income where countries drop below replacement fertility has fallen from about $32 per day in 1950 to about $8 now.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Opposition to premarital sex and same-sex relations has declined. Opposition to teen sex and extramarital affairs has (mostly) not. Why the difference? Here's the first of two attempts to answer: www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/05...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
The recent decline of confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court is noteworthy. Here's the latest in a series of articles using period-cohort analysis to look at changes in public opinion over the last 50 years. www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/05...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
This week's post is two-for-one: 1) Report from my ODSC talk on the life expectancy gender gap 2) An overthought answer to a Reddit question: when is middle age. www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/05...
allendowney.com
Planning for your midlife crisis - Probably Overthinking It
Yesterday I presented a talk at ODSC East 2026, called “Counterfactual Analysis with Bayesian Models: What Drives the Life Expectancy Gap?” Here’s the abstract Across nearly every country in the world...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
How Much of the Life Expectancy Gap Could We Close? In the U.S. it might be more than half (More countries in the next post) allendowney.substack.com/p/how-much-o...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Young adults are less happy than previous generations -- by a lot www.allendowney.com/blog/2026/03...
allendowney.com
Young Adults Are Not Very Happy - Probably Overthinking It
Since 1972, the General Social Survey has asked respondents: “Taken all together, how would you say things are these days—would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?” The fo...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Thanks to my friends at @datascienceweekly for featuring Probably Overthinking It ... now available in paperback!
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Probably Overthinking It is now available in paperback. To celebrate, I'm publishing The Lost Chapter, which is about the strangest paradox in probability, the girl named Florida problem. The key to the problem is Captain Chelsea Sullenberger. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/12...
allendowney.com
The Lost Chapter - Probably Overthinking It
I’m happy to report that Probably Overthinking It is available now in paperback. If you would like a copy, you can order from Bookshop.org and Amazon (affiliate links). To celebrate, I’m publishing Th...
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Modeling the SAT Math Gap with #PyMC Why do male test takers score ~30 points higher? Ability or selection bias? At PyData Boston 2025, @allendowney.bsky.social shows how Bayesian modeling untangles confounding to reveal what’s real. #BayesianModeling #DataScience
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
“I’m way closer to LeBron James than you are to me.” -- Brian Scalabrine He's probably right, because in a lognormal distribution of ability, it's levels to this … www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/11...
allendowney.com
It's Levels - Probably Overthinking It
A recent Reddit post asks “Amateur athletes of Reddit: what’s your ‘There’s levels to this shit’ experience from your sport?” Responses included: We have some good runners who can win local races … An...
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Daniel Slutsky @daslu.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
The #Scicloj group is initiating a new study group: #DSP in #Clojure. We will follow @allendowney.bsky.social's #ThinkDSP book and practice it in Clojure. clojureverse.org/t/clojure-ds...
clojureverse.org
Clojure DSP meeting 2025-11-02
Once in a while, a few of the Scicloj freinds will meet to learn about signal processing, following the Think DSP book by Allen B. Downey, and implementing things in Clojure. Our notes will be publish...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
The newest chapter of Think Linear Algebra is up now! It is about least squares regression, QR decomposition, and orthogonality: allendowney.github.io/ThinkLinearA...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Five-year survival rates might be the most misleading statistics in medicine. Even smart people can make incorrect inferences. Here are the top four: 1. If a patient is diagnosed early, it is tempting to think the probability is 91% that they will survive five years after diagnosis.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
The original sin of the engineering curriculum is the Foundation Fallacy: The assumption that math (especially calculus) and science (especially physics) are (1) the foundations of engineering, and therefore (2) the prerequisites of engineering education. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/10...
allendowney.com
The Foundation Fallacy - Probably Overthinking It
At Olin College recently, I met with a group from the Kyiv School of Economics who are creating a new engineering program. I am very impressed with the work they are doing, and their persistence despi...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
I just posted a new chapter of Think Linear Algebra. It's about projection, rejection, rotation, and pool! allendowney.github.io/ThinkLinearA...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
I love a good Simpson's paradox. Sadly, this is not one of them www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/10... In fact, I think the whole paper is nonsense. Published in Nature, too.
allendowney.com
Simpson's What? - Probably Overthinking It
I like Simpson’s paradox so much I wrote three chapters about it in Probably Overthinking It. In fact, I like it so much I have a Google alert that notifies me when someone publishes a new example (or...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Sadly, my primary team (the Red Sox) and emergency backup team (the Padres) were both knocked out of the playoffs yesterday. Now I am left to cheer for my team of last resort (the Notyankees).
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Sometimes we can use Bayesian methods to infer the effect of selection bias and produce an unbiased estimate. Here's an example that uses PyMC to solve a classic probability puzzle (the image shows what I think is the original version). www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/09...
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Jer Thorp @jerthorp.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
At this point I'm just barely making enough $ on this cohort to cover the platform fees. It's going to run anyway but I'd really love to have a few more people signed up. Use the code SIXTY for 60% off at registration.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
I have published five new chapters of Think Linear Algebra! Read about the project here allendowney.com/blog/2025/09... Or jump straight to the book allendowney.github.io/ThinkLinearA... And now… Asteroids!
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
On September 3 I'm giving a talk for the Boston Python User Group, called "A Future of Data Science" www.meetup.com/bostonpython... This is a talk from posit::conf last year, updated with new data and the experience of an interesting year.
meetup.com
Presentation Night: A future of data science (Allen Downey), Wed, Sep 3, 2025, 6:00 PM | Meetup
**A future of data science** *Allen Downey* In the hype cycle of data science, I suggest that the "peak of inflated expectations" was in 2012, the "trough of disillusionme
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Between 2021 and 2024, marijuana was legalized in eight states totaling 18% of the US population. During this time, adult use increased and youth use was unchanged. Data from NSDUH 2024.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
As a graduate of an all-boys high school, I am very interested to see the results...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
For anyone who likes LLMs and daytime game shows.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Some news articles suggest young men are conservative Republicans with sexist attitudes. But big picture, young men's views are pretty much on trend. Here's the data: allendowney.substack.com/p/are-young-...
allendowney.substack.com
Are Young Men Veering Right? Not really.
On most issues, gender gaps are small and not much different among young and older people
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
We're kicking off this new workshop on August 5.
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Everyone can do ML. Few can do Bayesian modeling. Set yourself apart with skills that drive deeper insight + better decisions. Join the next Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop by PyMC Labs. Hands-on. Practical. Real-world. 📅 Limited seats → dub.link/bayes-workshop #PyMC
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
ChatGPT and I think that "AI tools are shifting the boundary of what’s viable, and that’s likely to increase the net demand for software development, not decrease it." More Viable Projects = More Things to Build chatgpt.com/share/686c2e...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
Starting August 5, PyMC Labs is running a new workshop on Bayesian modeling in PyMC -- and I'm one of the instructors. If you want to get started with Bayesian stats, this is your chance! See below for details.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
I love this -- possibly best ever.
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
At PyData Boston last night, I announced a new project: Think Linear Algebra! This blog post explains the idea, including a sample chapter and a terrible AI-generated cover. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/05...
allendowney.com
Announcing Think Linear Algebra - Probably Overthinking It
I’ve been thinking about Think Linear Algebra for more than a decade, and recently I started working on it in earnest. If you want to get a sense of it, I’ve posted a draft chapter as a Jupyter notebo...
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Can LLMs answer open-ended survey questions like real people? 🧠 @allendowney.bsky.social tested GPT-4, Claude & others on 2020 ANES data. Models matched the order of top concerns—but often cited issues (like inflation) that weren’t big then. Useful, but not time-aware. 👉 dub.link/synth-respon...
dub.link
Can Synthetic Consumers Answer Open-Ended Questions? - PyMC Labs
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
My Think Stats hard copy has arrived! Here's what's new in the third edition: allendowney.github.io/ThinkStats/c...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Time Series Analysis with StatsModels Video from my PyData Global tutorial is up now: www.youtube.com/watch?v=foMb...
youtube.com
Allen Downey - Time Series Analysis with StatsModels | PyData Global 2024
YouTube video by PyData
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Think Stats 3e is on its way to the printer! (And available to pre-order) Here's the new cover, with a suspicious-looking archerfish. Blog post with the details: www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/04...
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
How close are LLMs to modeling real human behavior? We tested GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, and others on actual survey data (GSS-style). Some were shockingly human-like, others flopped 📊 Full results + methods → dub.link/synth-consum... 🤝 Exploring synthetic consumers? Let’s chat: info@pymc-labs.com
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
At PyMC Labs I've been working with a group developing synthetic consumers for marketing research. We just published this white paper with an overview of work in this space -- and we have a blog post coming next week with some experimental results. www.pymc-labs.com/blog-posts/s...
pymc-labs.com
Synthetic Consumers: The Promise, The Reality, and The Future - PyMC Labs
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
People born in the 1990s and 2000s have fewer children than previous generations at the same ages -- new data from NSFG. If circumstances prevent them from having the children they want, these trends might change. But it looks like they just want fewer. www.allendowney.com/blog/2025/03...
allendowney.com
Young Adults Want Fewer Children - Probably Overthinking It
The most recent data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) provides a first look at people born in the 2000s as young adults and an updated view of people born in the 1990s at the peak of t...
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Allen Downey @allendowney.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
This Upshot article is very good -- and it cites a related article I worked on: aibm.org/commentary/n...
aibm.org
No, young men are not turning away from gender equality - American Institute for Boys and Men
But like many women, they have mixed feelings about feminism.
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