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AliVaez.bsky.social

@alivaez.bsky.social
996 followers 23 following 115 posts

Director of #Iran Project & Senior Advisor @CrisisGroup; Adjunct Prof @Georgetown; Fellow @FPI_SAIS; Ex @UNDPPA @FAScientists @Harvard

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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Seven months in, Iran & the U.S. each believe they have tools to make the other blink, fortitude to wait the other out, and disinclination to make concessions the other seeks. My latest for @ForeignAffairs 👇 tinyurl.com/4vudctak
tinyurl.com
The New Forever War
Why America and Iran fight on without victory.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Told @NYT: Iran’s proposal is tempting for @POTUS; it ends an unpopular war/ brings down energy prices in the run-up the midterms. But it also restores a deal that was largely favorable to the Iranians. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/w...
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Told @NYTimes: We have experienced the two extremes b/w Iran and the US—a relationship that was too close for both sides to have real appreciation for its underlying problems and a rupture that has now resulted in both sides absolutely not understanding one another www.nytimes.com/2026/09/21/u...
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Told @NYTimes: We have experienced the two extremes b/w Iran and the US—a relationship that was too close for both sides to have real appreciation for its underlying problems and a rupture that has now resulted in both sides absolutely not understanding one another.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Told @WSJ: The US can keep grinding Iran down at a manageable cost, while Tehran can shift much of the pain onto its population and protect its critical institutions. Everyone pays, but neither is paying enough to accept the other side’s terms. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Told @AFP: Some see the @iaeaorg resolution as an opportunity to add legal pressure to Iran’s economic strangulation, while others see it as upholding nonpro norms. But ultimately, it is an exercise in futility as 🇷🇺+🇨🇳 will block the UNSC vote. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council
The IAEA board of governors on Wednesday voted to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear "non-compliance" in a diplomatic move to pile pressure on the Islamic republic. The…
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Told @washingtonpost that Iran has avoided striking Iran because it brings high costs and no benefit, when their objective is to counter U.S. economic pressure against Tehran by raising energy prices for Washington. wapo.st/4x8ReCt
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Told @politico: It’s undeniable that there is economic pressure. The question is whether there is a breaking point, but for a regime that is fighting for its life and has never hesitated to transfer pain to its population, there is no breaking point. www.politico.com/news/2026/08...
politico.com
‘There is no breaking point’: The problem with Trump’s plan to economically strangle Iran
As the administration promises unprecedented economic isolation, former US officials and Iran experts warn Tehran may be willing to absorb far more pain than Washington anticipates.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Told @nytimes: Neither side is ready to finalize a deal. They both think that in a matter of days/weeks, the other side will be more desperate, so they’ll be able to get more out of it. This is why we are locked into this game of endurance again. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/16/w...
nytimes.com
As Iran War Turns Into Economic Battle, a New U.S. Strategy Recalls Old Ones
The United States and Iran are poised to blow past a deadline they had set themselves to broker terms on peace and Iran’s nuclear program.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Told @WSJ: Tehran has drawn a simple lesson from every game of chicken with Washington: Hold your nerve long enough, and America swerves first. Existential threats tend to harden resolve, not impose a price ceiling on resistance. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Told @AJEnews: Iran could raise the stakes by targeting US naval assets or pushing the Houthis [in Yemen] to tighten the noose around regional energy exports. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/...
aljazeera.com
US threatens ‘indefinite’ blockade against Iran: How long can it last?
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth claims US Navy can sustain blockade despite reports of poor conditions.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Told @FT: If there is one thing that Mojtaba has learnt from his father, it is that regardless of how much you trust people in the inner circle, no one should gain too much power to be able to eclipse the supreme leader. www.ft.com/content/3429...
ft.com
https://www.ft.com/content/34299f83-9c49-4332-9d0f-d4f369d7a233?syn-25a6b1a6=1
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Told @nytimes: Iran wants to front-load benefits without surrendering its main leverage, which is Hormuz. Iran wants to hold the strait like a sword of Damocles over Trump ao that he delivers on his commitments under the MOU. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/09/w...
nytimes.com
Iran, Holding Firm to Hormuz, Pushes for Return to June MOU
The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s best leverage to get Washington to release Iran’s frozen assets, lift economic sanctions and end its naval blockade.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Told @FoxNews: Fundamentally, both sides know that the status quo is a recipe for continued military and economic attrition without a clear endgame. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...
foxnews.com
Trump offers Iran ‘last chance’ deal as repeated pauses fail to end war
Trump calls diplomacy Iran's "last chance" after halting what he described as the biggest planned U.S. attack since World War II amid disputed talks.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Told @nytimes : Whatever solution leaves Iran in control of the strait will be a tough sell for Trump but there is also no military solution to remove Iran’s control of the strait. Trump’s options are between an unwinnable war and an unpalatable peace. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/u...
nytimes.com
An Emerging Deal Between Iran and Oman to Reopen Hormuz Would Come at a Cost for Trump
The deal would address President Trump’s most urgent political problem by allowing ships to move again. But it would give Iran strategic leverage it did not have before the war.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Told the one&only @StevenErlanger: There is the crisis of credibility for the U.S. Neither its military prowess nor its diplomatic promises can be trusted. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/w...
nytimes.com
In Iran, the U.S. Appears Headed for a Strategic Defeat, Allies Fear
With none of President Trump’s aims accomplished and the Strait of Hormuz closed, U.S. allies see dysfunction and vulnerability from the war.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. It could continue to widen, engulfing ever more countries. In this Q&A, our team @CrisisGroup explains why de-escalation is urgent in every theatre. www.crisisgroup.org/qna/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The Middle East’s Metastasising Conflicts | International Crisis Group
After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. It could continue to widen, engulfing ever more countries. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains why…
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Told @FoxNews: For more than 4 decades, the US has been able to coerce the Iranian regime economically. Now for the Iranians can retaliate in kind by putting pressure on the pocketbook of every American citizen. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...
foxnews.com
Trump says Iran will pay — what it takes to end the war remains unclear
President Donald Trump's military campaign against Iran now focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the administration has not defined what Tehran must do to end the strikes.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Follow my Iran Policy Watch newsletter on Substack. Second edition is out now: Timeline, sanctions tracker, and why the U.S.-Iran tensions risk becoming a forever war ⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/vaezali/...
open.substack.com
Iran Policy Watch - July 2026
A monthly newsletter from Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President at the International Crisis Group. Covering the period 20 June to 2 June 2026.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Told @Latimes: Once you’ve proven that diplomacy doesn’t work, then there’s only war. www.latimes.com/world-nation...
latimes.com
News Analysis: Trump, long a critic of 'forever wars,' may be stumbling into one with Iran
President Trump railed against "forever wars," but with hostilities increasing and negotiations at a standstill, there appears no easy exit from the war he launched on Iran.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Told the inimitable @@StevenErlanger: Both Iran and the U.S. looked to the memorandum of understanding as the continuation of the war by other means, not as a bridge to peace, www.nytimes.com/2026/07/16/w...
nytimes.com
In Iran war, Trump Risks Another American ‘Forever War’
President Trump, who promised to “end wars,” not start them, may have fallen into a familiar presidential trap.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
If the U.S. and Iran allow even this modest understanding to disappear, the next cease-fire will become merely the pause before the next battle — and war, rather than diplomacy, could well become the permanent condition. My latest for @NYTOpinion www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | This Is a Forever War in the Making
The vague language of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire memo laid the foundation for the war’s resumption.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Look forward to moderating a stellar panel of experts for this @CrisisGroup webinar on Thursday. Registration details available here: www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/... @PhilGordonDC @vali_nasr @YasFarouk @robinenergy
crisisgroup.org
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Diplomacy with adversaries rarely begins with moral clarity. It begins when the costs of illusion exceed the discomfort of reality. Have Iran and the U.S. arrived at that point? My latest for @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.com
America and Iran’s Strange Moment of Opportunity
How a deadlocked conflict can pave the way for peace.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Told @lrozen: The US and Iran never fully stopped trying to win the war during the peace. The agreement bought them time, but they used much of it to test red lines, improve positions, and erode the other side’s leverage. diplomatic.substack.com/p/vance-warn...
diplomatic.substack.com
Vance warns U.S. strikes will continue if Iran targets ships in Strait
“The Strait of Hormuz is going to be open…If they try to close it down, there’s going to be a response from the American military. It’s just going to keep on happening until they open up that...
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Told @NBCNews that after a war, a leadership transition, and the lingering trauma of a brutally suppressed uprising, the Islamic Republic enters a period of profound uncertainty. nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
nbcnews.com
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Told @CBSNews: There is an inverse correlation between Iran's ability to secure sanctions relief and its desire to look at the strait as a source of revenue.
cbsnews.com
How Iran could try to control the Strait of Hormuz - and profit from it
Some experts say the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, so what could the future of this vital shipping lane look like?
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Told @NYtimes: Control over the Strait of Hormuz is critical leverage that Iran doesn’t want to see eroded before they have a final deal. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/28/w...
nytimes.com
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Told @CNN: Ghalibaf has finally arrived at a position of immense influence by a process of elimination. He sought the presidency several times but was eclipsed by rivals whom the war has since swept from the stage. edition.cnn.com/2026/03/24/w...
edition.cnn.com
Iran’s man in charge: Who is the negotiator leading Tehran through talks with the US? | CNN
When the Iranian delegation landed in Switzerland at the weekend, chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was the first down the aircraft steps.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Told @washingtonpost: The Iranians view Trump as unreliable and erratic. That’s why the MOU is a proof of concept on whether negotiating a more comprehensive agreement with the U.S. is even possible. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
washingtonpost.com
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Told @NYT: Iran has the capacity and maybe even more incentive now to develop nuclear weapons, because it provides the ultimate deterrence against the kinds of attacks Iran has suffered for the last two years. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/w...
nytimes.com
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 17/06/2026
Trump says that Iran "has to have" ballistic missiles, adding "what am I going to do? Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles but they can't have them?"
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Told @FT that the US-Iran MoU can break a lose-lose dynamic, but without concessions on the nuclear program, relief for Tehran is little more than a painkiller for a system facing deep economic & political challenges.
tinyurl.com
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Told @guardian: Iran’s water crisis has left it with virtually no margin for error. Further disruptions could prove catastrophic for the population. But Tehran is more likely to endure a deepening thirst at home than satisfy Trump’s thirst for a political victory. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
theguardian.com
Military strikes on water facilities in Iran may constitute a war crime, experts say
Strikes on Bemani damaged key water reservoir for 20,000 people living in area amid a historic drought in the country
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 10/06/2026
TRUMP: We're gonna be attacking Iran, and attacking them very hard. REPORTER: Resuming bombing? TRUMP: Yeah. We are.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Told @WSJ: Iran has left Washington trying to separate two fronts whose key triggers remain outside the U.S.-Iran channel: Israel’s asserted freedom of action in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s refusal to stand down. The war has certainly made Iran less, not more, risk averse. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Spoke to @Freedland @guardian about why Trump keeps changing his mind on what to do to end the war. www.theguardian.com/politics/aud...
theguardian.com
Trump: the boy who cried ‘peace’ in the Middle East – podcast
This week, as the US-Iran deal remains in a precarious state, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group about why Trump keeps changing his mind on what to do to end the war
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Spoke to @NPRinskeep about the Trump administration's latest efforts to end the war with Iran. www.npr.org/2026/05/29/n...
npr.org
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Politics Weekly America @politicsweeklyusa.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Will he? Won't he? Why does Trump do anything? Jonathan and @alivaez.bsky.social look at the prospect of the US-Israel war on Iran ending any time soon.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Told @NPR that the deal between Iran and the U.S. can stop the bleeding, but won't heal the wound. www.npr.org/2026/05/25/n...
npr.org
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/25/nx-s1-5831459/how-a-deal-between-the-u-s-and-iran-could-affect-the-middle-east-region
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
DC's Iran hawks got two wars, nearly every conceivable sanction designation, a blockade, threw a wrench in global economy and will still claim that just a little more pressure and a touch more bombing will magically yield the concessions they still won't be satisfied with.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Told @Reuters: Neither side has shown willingness to make the painful concessions needed for a deal. Both believe time is on their side and they have the upper hand, and that perception is precisely what is making a deal impossible. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/no-deal-no-exit-how-us-iran-standoff-risks-fresh-conflict-2026-05-18/
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 11/05/2026
Fox News: "President Trump just spoke to our John Roberts a moment ago. He says he is now considering renewing Project Freedom, but he says this time around the US guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz would be just one small piece of a larger military operation."
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Told @AJEnglish: No amount of economic coercion or military force will compel Iran to capitulate to maximalist US demands. Trump is therefore left with two bad options: escalate a war he cannot win, or accept a compromise he cannot sell. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/...
aljazeera.com
‘Unacceptable’: What’s Iran’s peace proposal that Trump has rejected?
On Sunday, Tehran sent a response to an earlier US proposal to end the war through mediator Pakistan.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Told @lemondefr: The only thing Project Freedom will succeed in doing is collapsing the ceasefire. www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
lemonde.fr
Trump temporarily backs down on reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force
Forty-eight hours after launching an operation to escort ships through the strategic waterway, the US president suspended it, citing progress in negotiations with Iran.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Told @NYtimes: At every point when pressure hasn’t delivered the intended result, Trump sought a new tool of coercion which he believed would magically conjure victory, but pressure without an open door is an exercise in futility. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/w...
nytimes.com
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Told @NikkeiAsia: Iran appears to be using alternative export routes such as rail transport via Afghanistan, but that capacity is insufficient. The blockade is clearly putting pressure on Iran. asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/ir...
asia.nikkei.com
US blockade strands 1.8m barrels a day of Iranian crude oil
Tehran forced to rely on decommissioned tankers for storage, analysts say
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Told @abcnews: The Iranian calculus is that the time pressure on them is measured in months, whereas for the United States, it is measured in weeks. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05...
abc.net.au
Iran's race: Break the US blockade or risk its economic lifeline
Analysis of how much oil Iran is producing, shipping and having to store shows pressure is mounting on Tehran, but while experts agree the US blockade is effective, there are questions about whether it...
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Told @NYT: Many IRGC affiliated voices are now openly saying that the failure of Iran has been that it was too shy about aligning itself with China & Russia. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/u...
nytimes.com
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/us/politics/trump-china-iran-war.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
With President Trump’s visit to Beijing looming, China is pushing Iran to negotiate even as its companies export material that could be used by Iran’s military.
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AliVaez.bsky.social @alivaez.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Told @The_NewArab: Rather than establishing a stable equilibrium, this ‘No War, No Peace’ limbo is best described as escalation management with live ammunition. www.newarab.com/analysis/no-...
newarab.com
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