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ellynsong

@alienbeach.bsky.social
3.4K followers 3.3K following 3.3K posts

Retired Professor (Bayesian Probability / Biosciences), Jazz Musician

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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 2h
I’d like to know how he's planning to track ballots by voter.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 2h
It's airborne and fatality rate is 100%, if untreated. it is treatable with antibiotics. Some countries may be exploring DNA edits to change proteins and prevent antibiotic binding, but that's a big tech stretch.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 10h
I saw that and I live in LA and I'm watching a LA Rams vs Philadelphia game. That's a lot of money going to waste. Guess they can afford it.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 11h
Agree. More like 'should have', regardless.
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Batter Rating @batterrating.bsky.social · 15h
🚀 KYLE TUCKER | 12.50 BR | #2 (10/3) 🚀 2-for-4 | 1 R | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 1 SB — Tucker did a little bit of everything as the Dodgers move on. BatterRating.com #MLB #Dodgers #KyleTucker #BR
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
After giving this some more thought, it’s a good framework to start. It would be nice if they had published models so we could adjust effects across dimensions and levels, etc. but, basic feedback loops are included… it’s good. Thanks.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Putin staged 4 assassination attempts (according to Western intelligence agencies, defense analysts, and independent regional experts).
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I'm seeing WSJ (Murdoch) articles about Seattle's local politics (really - WSJ is concerned with local elections now?). When I lived there, you never saw Fox on a TV anywhere - it didn't exist. And this Mayor seems good, but is getting trashed. I have to wonder how active Bezos (AWS) is now.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Kevin Warsh did not receive a $100 million gift. He liquidated private investment assets to meet federal ethics divestiture requirements before taking office as Federal Reserve Chair. Totally different than Trump.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
He'll use that carrot to get the decisions he wants before the election.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This is actuaries deriving the probability of scenarios from data they didn't create. I'm not so queasy with the conclusions, as the methodology. That said, I think they have to because environmental sciences are politically neutered, underfunded, and disconnected. I think it will be worse.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'd really like to see a comprehensive risk analysis of supply chains. You know its fragile. As climate change intensifies, this will break down and urban areas will begin facing scarcity. You'll know when, because they'll be screaming - shocked I tell you!
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
It was just a random street crime, but there's no governor to shut it down, so while I'm sure Trump thinks anything is justification for a NG deployment, that can be contested by your governor - and they need to do their job.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I love the null hypothesis game! Now let's prove there are no dinosaurs in the park.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
No, half a glass is fine. Nice decorations.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'm like that too. Baseball is the only team sport that interests me. I am a Dodger fan though 🙂
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The house is not a problem. 2/3 of the Senate is nearly impossible.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I hear you - just south in the LA basin (which is normally in the 70s this time of year). I can deal with hot temps for limited periods, but I keep wondering what this will be like when it expands to longer periods. And I wonder about agricultural production. I like food 🙂
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Thats a huge effects loop peaking at the wrong time.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
3 degrees by 2050 is starting to feel optimistic.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
What's the climate casino prediction for the Thwaites collapse? It's not on Kalshi 🙂.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The biosphere is just adjusting to human determination to self-terminate. I don't think 'coexistence with humans' matters. Any mix of complex life maximizes entropy, so the Biosphere doesn't really care.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This what happens with insanity and wealth merge. The soil on Mars is toxic to humans, and severance from Earth's biosphere will cause epigenetic locking. Either, or both, will be terminal. We will not survive Mars - full stop. And we only have a few generations left here. Enjoy.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
California passed a law to prevent this (the "No Secret Police Act") and it was blocked in Fed court because it 'unlawfully discriminated against federal agents by exempting state police.' Big mistake to exempt state officials. nccriminallaw.sog.unc.edu/2026/02/16/f...
nccriminallaw.sog.unc.edu
Federal Court Enjoins California’s Law Prohibiting Federal Law Enforcement Officers from Wearing Masks – North Carolina Criminal Law Blog
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Senator Sheldon Whitehouse @whitehouse.senate.gov · 02/10/2026
First the wedding, now the ballroom — “Trump/Russia” gets smellier and smellier.
esquire.com
A Wealthy Russian Businessman Is Helping Fund Trump’s Stupid Ballroom. Nothing Sketchy About That, Right?
Surely, our president will face consequences for this insanity.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I'm voting for minimal effects as long as possible. Enjoy what we can. I really don't believe anything will create a shift, as long as denialism rewards the predators of our species. Also, I don't believe there are significant interventions - these are big, locked-in forces - vastly understated.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Didn't realize Ken had come to a California winery. If he had just let us know ahead of time, we could have organized a welcome wagon.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Many of my students are having tubal ligation procedures - the clinics are booked up well in advance. I can understand.
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Jennifer 🦋🐶☕️🦋 @jenelliot.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
#NOMORE
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I'm not suggesting we end sports. But criminal charges don't reach the root cause. Sports programs and admin need to be held responsible for the culture they foster, and the NCAA is a biased arbitrator - e.g., Sandusky, Briles... what a joke. Instead, Congress is all worried about... NIL $.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
That was obvious when they called all the top brass to that meeting in Virginia. They all sat silent, looking at each other like WTF? Absolutely the weirdest. Soon will come the pressure point, and they'll have to make decisions about shooting citizens. You know Trump will order it.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
cutting the guys who would resist controlling the citizens.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Yeah, mind-boggling... right.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
My experience is that people that use the term 'Sex' are more focused on anatomical function, and people that use the term 'Gender' are more focused on neurological function. Personally, I'm more concerned with neurological, but good to know what you're dealing with.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Calling someone a name is one thing. Implying they are committing perjury is another entirely.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Yeah, I thought it was typically Republican that the epic miscalculation began with no awareness that the team might could have been a women’s team. Just classic.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
bsky.app/profile/alie...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I liked Matthew
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It seems like the entire focus of Congress now is some kind of weird religion. It would be nice to see a country led by people that just focused on making things work: healthcare, education, transportation, commerce, banking... Wow, imagine that! Peace and Prosperity. That's it.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Feynman's path integral, proposed in 1948, was confirmed last month. Great theories are often interdisciplinary, and require a long time to establish. Science is not a race. 3 points: Null hypothesis first. Peer review (supposed to address falsification), and 'Testimony is not evidence'.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
When I think of the early 20th century, I think of Monet and Debussy. Funny how that works.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Carey Mulligan 💙
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
and check your registration... NOW.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Totally on board. And if you can't find compassion and empathy, just try respect. Maybe they, and their doctors know better than you and I what's best.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Republicans are trying to answer the question: How many predatory, manosphere cockroaches are there in the US?
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Right Wing Watch @rightwingwatch.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If you think women should be able to vote, have jobs, live alone, or have unsupervised access to one another, that is because "you have normalcy bias for insane world": "You're living in an insane asylum and you think it's the normal world." www.peoplefor.org/rightwingwat...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
bsky.app/profile/alie...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I'm all for a party reset - but I think Buttigieg has already set that expectation. Thanks for your concern, Jill.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
If you're referring to Oracle making promises to customers, I agree with you. It was completely sales driven and reps that didn't make quota were out. Recipe for setting non- deliverable expectations. That set their culture from the 80s forward.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
High correlation between sports, greek culture, and sexual assault. Seems to me, a place to start is to suspend sports programs at colleges where this happens. Report: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30720757/ Summary Stat:
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