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ellynsong

@alienbeach.bsky.social
3.4K followers 3.3K following 3.3K posts

Retired Professor (Bayesian Probability / Biosciences), Jazz Musician

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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
It was wonderful!
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I liked Matthew
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
High correlation between sports, greek culture, and sexual assault. Seems to me, a place to start is to suspend sports programs at colleges where this happens. Report: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30720757/ Summary Stat:
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
High correlation between sports, greek culture, and sexual assault. Seems to me, a place to start is to suspend sports programs at colleges where this happens. Report: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30720757/ Summary Stat:
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Just down the road from you.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
There seems to be a common thread here
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Here's the story I got. It's all testimony, and Wharton was threatened with lawsuits by Trump if they revealed anything. But I know how that Prof felt: "how the hell did this guy get in my class?" As far as the SAT - according to Mary Trump's book. he paid Joe Shapiro to take the SAT for him
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
...and the reason Prof Kelley had to even deal with him is that he paid someone to take the SAT for him.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
It's bad. The only credible, comprehensive analysis I've seen lately is the this one (JP Morgan and Lloyds use their reports). Basically, they're saying that 2050 is the probable collapse (used to be 2100), and the worst case is 4 billion deaths (billion, with a b). actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erl...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
It's either a major outlier, or a shift in normal. I'm betting on the later, and we may look back on this year fondly.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Credible Forecast (not hopium): actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erl...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I don't think the EU will be worried about human rights when borders are flooded by mass migrations, driven by fires, floods... food and housing scarcity... Predicted collapse is now 2050 (not 2100), with 4 billion, with a 'b', deaths. Credible report: actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erl...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
"Thrive' is optimistic, considering the last credible report I've seen moved collapse from 2100 to 2050, and is projecting 4 billion, with a B, deaths. That's worst case, but these scenarios have been shifting to 'likely' as feedback loops go exponential. actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erl...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Bloody Mary essential.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
They're pretty nice in CA too. Maybe Canada, CA, OR and WA should sit down and talk possibilities sometime?
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
We‘re just watching another hype cycle, like all the rest. This one is amplified because we live in the age of grift and the SEC is nonexistent.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Additionally, there are some risks (possible, not probable... yet) that they don't consider, most significant is the deglaciation => rifting => basaltic province events (responsible for 3 previous extinctions). I summarize research here:
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
This is a recent summary of a credible org. Summary on p. 35 - projection of 4 billion casualties worse case. Note that the timeline has shifted from 2100 to 2050, based on accelerators and feedback loops going exponential. actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erl...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
If this doesn't get your attention, I can't help you 🙂
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
spurious correlation Is statistics nerds humor www.tylervigen.com/spurious-cor...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Yeah great idea. We don't have enough space junk out there, so let's put up another *50k* mirror objects out there so people can get a tan. I mean: are you fucking kidding me?
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
back of the napkin
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Beyond just grants, people in CA are pretty damn tired of this game (survivors of the January 2025 Pacific Palisades and Eaton fires have still not yet received their federal disaster relief). At some point, we need to change the politics of funding, or just reorg the nation.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Pretty interesting
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Damn. Now I have to get in the car and drive to taqueria frontera
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
I hear you 🙂
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Went to see this last night. Intro and analysis by Guillermo del Toro.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
I've been following the deglaciation => rift volcanism risk for over the 3 years now, because.... I'm crazy. But I'm not alone, just lonely 🙂. Anyway, here'a a recent summary.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
You got my vote.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
I should have added the NewBev covenant 🙂. I LOVE film - the colors...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Now, we have Ford purposing the EV battery plants for... AI data center batteries. Yep. Was there any doubt?
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
You had me checking - Not seeing it. Love that theater though.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
We were building agentic AI 20 years ago - called it machine learning and workflow. Less conversational, but same analysis, decision and process. If companies couldn't implement that, they won't be able to implement 'Agentic AI'.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Woo-hoo! In my town, more theaters are showing films in prints with good projection. And guess what? People are filling seats - sharing the experience with others - you know, like humans with real, organic connection. Young people too. Classic theaters are restoring and expanding. So good to see.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Oil crises? What oil crises?
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
"Testament of Youth" is moving, sincere and substantial adaption of a classic memoir by Vera Britton. Great WWI romance - completely relevant to today. If you liked 'The English Patient'... Here's a good review of the book: bookssnob.wordpress.com/2010/07/13/t...
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Survived all 5 mass extinctions. Recent research has found that the species that survive mass extinctions are the select few that contribute distinct function to the biosphere as a whole.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
It ain't coming from Daddy:
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
I guess it's time to start depending on my myself for transpo. I went down to the shop, and I'm having my ride pimped for road trips now:
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
More blood ahead.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Can't believe conservatives are trying to rewrite history.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Yeah. We don't need no stinkin' degrees. "I'm not scared of a germ, I used to snort cocaine off toilet seats". Ladies and Gentlemen- your HHS Secretary
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
"I'm not scared of a germ, I used to snort cocaine off toilet seats". Ladies and Gentlemen- your HHS Secretary
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
The narrative: "In the middle of the program, it was printed that Sarah Gibson died on July 14, 2024, in Los Angeles. This is not a fact. This is a memory." I used to save the programs too - for that very purpose. I just lost it. The grief is palpable I'll go to the concert. Thanks.
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ellynsong @alienbeach.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
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