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Alexandre Afonso

@alexandreafonso.bsky.social
3.7K followers 1.4K following 538 posts

Associate professor at Leiden University. Political economy, migration, welfare states 🇨🇭🇵🇹 🇳🇱 alexandreafonso.me

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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 1h
New post: High skills don't shield immigrants from racial bias: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/high-skill...
alexandreafonso.substack.com
High Skills Don’t Shield Immigrants From Racial Bias
I ran a survey experiment with British respondents. It suggests that skills do not shield immigrants from racial bias — if anything, I find the opposite.
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Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 23/04/2026
Social media is no longer social. Most of it is passive viewing of videos and pictures from people we've never met. But we're still studying social media like it's 2010. We've entered the post-social media era — and research needs to catch up. osf.io/preprints/so... preprint w/ Richard Rogers
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Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 23/04/2026
Exhibit A: in a recent antitrust filing, Meta argued it isn't a social media monopoly because it isn't really a social media company anymore. Only 7% of Instagram time and 17% of Facebook time is spent on content from friends or followed accounts. The rest is algorithmic video from strangers.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
E aí, beleza? I made some graphs using data from yesterday's election in Brazil: here the vote share of Bolsonaro junior plotted by %white, %evangelical, and income. Units are 5000+ municipalities. More here: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/who-voted-...
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Stuff you perhaps don't know: "Ciao" comes from Venetian "s'ciao", literally "[I am your] slave". From Latin "sclavus" (schiavo in modern Italian). Meaning is more "at your service". Same root as "servus", common greeting in Southern Germany and Austria.
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Shyznogud @shyznogd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Do @alexandreafonso.bsky.social
alexandreafonso.substack.com
Who Voted for Bolsonaro junior?
Some snazzy graphs on the results of yesterday’s Brazilian election
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
E aí, beleza? I made some graphs using data from yesterday's election in Brazil: here the vote share of Bolsonaro junior plotted by %white, %evangelical, and income. Units are 5000+ municipalities. More here: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/who-voted-...
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Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
New Blog post: Which Data Repository Should you Use? In light of OSF closing down, I compare Zenodo, Dataverse, ResearchBox, PsychArchive, and local repositories on six important dimensions. If you want to know which to pick: It depends! daniellakens.blogspot.com/2026/08/whic...
daniellakens.blogspot.com
Which Data Repository Should You Use?
The Center for Open Science has announced that from November 16, 2026, no new projects can be created on the Open Science Framework. After F...
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Reposted by Alexandre Afonso
Neu. Petr @neup.eurosky.social · 02/10/2026
“The persistence of a physical, embodied marker of #inequality — in countries with universal healthcare and decades of rising living standards — suggests that class and income still matter a lot.” @alexandreafonso.bsky.social alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/social-cla...
alexandreafonso.substack.com
The Height of Income and Class
Why rich people are taller than poor people
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Foreign academics now represent almost half of all academic staff employed at Dutch universities (but only a quarter of full professors). I wrote a post showing some data and discussing some ways to understand it: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/immigrants...
alexandreafonso.substack.com
Immigrants: The Silent (Almost) Majority in Dutch Academia
Half of Dutch academics are now foreign, but almost no one talks about them.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Foreign academics now represent almost half of all academic staff employed at Dutch universities (but only a quarter of full professors). I wrote a post showing some data and discussing some ways to understand it: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/immigrants...
alexandreafonso.substack.com
Immigrants: The Silent (Almost) Majority in Dutch Academia
Half of Dutch academics are now foreign, but almost no one talks about them.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C1...
discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
These are the most common family names in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. www.rts.ch/info/suisse/...
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
🇵🇹 Portuguese: "Conde Cara de Caixote de Lixo" expresso.pt/internaciona...
expresso.pt
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
This was also made possible by the fact that cultural capital (education) is no longer seen as a conduit to economic capital.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Very happy to see this out on perceptions of welfare deservingness for different categories of migrants, together with @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social and Samir Negash @fggaleiden.bsky.social, open access in EPSR:
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Gianni Infantino is an embarrassment for his country in the sense that none of his corruption seems to serve the purpose of Switzerland winning the world cup title.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Every game is played for pure entertainment without any stakes, as the World Cup title (renamed the Gianni Infantino Trophy®) has been attributed since 2048 to the highest bidder, usually Qatar.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
World Cup 2322, Greenland, tropical heat. As in every Portugal game, the mummy of Cristiano Ronaldo is wheeled onto the pitch while 10 players battle the opposing team.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Com transferência de bicicleta
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Do you look down on people called Lebaron?
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 23/06/2026
#OpenAccess from @epsrjournal.bsky.social - Not all migrants are equal: public support for migrant welfare access by migrant type and social protection scheme - cup.org/44hn5Vj - Samir Mustafa Negash, @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social & @alexandreafonso.bsky.social #FirstView
Logo of the European Political Science Review, featuring the acronym 'EPSR' in large letters with the full name underneath and the hashtag '#OpenAccess' at the bottom, all set against a dual-tone background.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
More mobile- friendly version: claude.ai/public/artif...
claude.ai
World Cup 2026 Birthplace Migration Network Visualization
Explore interactive network map showing player migration flows from birthplace to World Cup 2026 nations. Trace 282 cross-border players across 1,248 squad entries.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
I made a small visualisation of the birthplace and nation represented of players at the World Cup. Stunning 96(!) players born in France. You can play with it here: claude.ai/public/artif...
Network diagram on a dark green background titled "The Birthplace Map: World Cup 2026 Squads," with the subtitle "node size = degree (players + countries connected)." Gold circles represent the 48 World Cup nations and smaller grey-green circles represent countries that only supplied players without fielding their own team, positioned roughly according to real-world geography (Americas on the left, Africa and Europe in the center, Asia and Oceania on the right). Curved green lines connect birth countries to the nations players represent, with thicker lines indicating more players. France is the largest node by far, connected to 15 countries totaling 76 players, including thick lines to Algeria, Haiti, Senegal, Congo DR, and Côte d'Ivoire. The Netherlands is the second-largest hub, with an especially thick line to Curaçao (26 players). Other notable hubs include Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Morocco, and the United Kingdom (split into England and Scotland). A legend at the bottom explains the gold/grey node colors and the line-width scale; a footer credits the source as worldcup.csv, 1,248 squad entries, 282 cross-border players.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Accidental Elvis, ca. 1977
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European Political Science Review @epsrjournal.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
"Not all migrants are equal" 🥇 🥈 🥉 @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social, @fggaleiden.bsky.social's Samir Negash & @alexandreafonso.bsky.social drawn on experiments from Germany and the UK to evaluate the deservingness of citizens and different migrant categories across 4 welfare schemes buff.ly/EUExGVs
cambridge.org
Not all migrants are equal: public support for migrant welfare access by migrant type and social protection scheme | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Not all migrants are equal: public support for migrant welfare access by migrant type and social protection scheme
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Was intrigued by this: www.nytimes.com/athletic/736...
nytimes.com
How migration, colonial ties and tweaks to FIFA eligibility rules have made this the diaspora World Cup
Of the 1,248 players at the 2026 World Cup, 292 were born outside the country they represent, including 10 Senegalese born in France
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
@simonkuper.bsky.social En a souvent parlé, je crois
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Used the data from here: umap.openstreetmap.de/de/map/fifa-...
umap.openstreetmap.de
FIFA World Cup 2026
This map displays the birthplaces of all players, managers and referees taking part in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. You will also find information on the national teams themselves as well as the stadiums ...
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
I made a small visualisation of the birthplace and nation represented of players at the World Cup. Stunning 96(!) players born in France. You can play with it here: claude.ai/public/artif...
Network diagram on a dark green background titled "The Birthplace Map: World Cup 2026 Squads," with the subtitle "node size = degree (players + countries connected)." Gold circles represent the 48 World Cup nations and smaller grey-green circles represent countries that only supplied players without fielding their own team, positioned roughly according to real-world geography (Americas on the left, Africa and Europe in the center, Asia and Oceania on the right). Curved green lines connect birth countries to the nations players represent, with thicker lines indicating more players. France is the largest node by far, connected to 15 countries totaling 76 players, including thick lines to Algeria, Haiti, Senegal, Congo DR, and Côte d'Ivoire. The Netherlands is the second-largest hub, with an especially thick line to Curaçao (26 players). Other notable hubs include Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Morocco, and the United Kingdom (split into England and Scotland). A legend at the bottom explains the gold/grey node colors and the line-width scale; a footer credits the source as worldcup.csv, 1,248 squad entries, 282 cross-border players.
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Lorenzo Piccoli @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
When people think about migrants and welfare, they often ask a simple question: Should migrants have access to social benefits? Our new paper with @alexandreafonso.bsky.social and Samir Negash suggests the answer is much more nuanced. @epsrjournal.bsky.social. tinyurl.com/exntas9d 🧵 1/6
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
I won't be there but hope to chat at some point for sure!
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Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Congrats! Well-timed and from a brief skim seems to chime with what we find regarding NHS health access versus other forms of benefits. I like the segmented language too. Would love to meet up and compare notes if any of you are going to @epssnet.bsky.social this week. bsky.app/profile/will...
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
doi.org/10.1017/S175...
doi.org
Not all migrants are equal: public support for migrant welfare access by migrant type and social protection scheme | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Not all migrants are equal: public support for migrant welfare access by migrant type and social protection scheme
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Absolutely fascinating polling by @christabelcoops.bsky.social @thinklabour.bsky.social. Says a lot about the (mis)perceptions of voters - and the cues they use to evaluate the social background of politicians.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Very happy to see this out on perceptions of welfare deservingness for different categories of migrants, together with @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social and Samir Negash @fggaleiden.bsky.social, open access in EPSR:
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Today! Moderated by @alexandreafonso.bsky.social Very much looking forward to it!
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
The MAGA World Cup event is back on, thanks to @alexandreafonso.bsky.social 🙏 Same time, roughly same place, same format. All welcome!
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Clearly shows we are a serious contender for the title, since they're starting to use all sorts of dirty tricks against us.
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Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
🚨🚨 #Switzerland’s star striker Breel Embolo has been barred from entering #US ahead of #WorldCup following a last-minute decision by US authorities to review his #clearance to travel. 🧵 www.politico.eu/article/swit...
politico.eu
Switzerland’s star striker barred from entering US ahead of World Cup
Breel Embolo has hasn’t traveled to the U.S. yet, but his team is saving his seat for him.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Does being high-skilled protect you from ethnic bias when applying for a UK visa? In a new pre-registered experiment to be published in International Migration Review, I find that high occupational status doesn't shield immigrants from ethnic prejudice — it may activate it.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Takeaway: High skills are not a shield against ethnic bias in immigration preferences. Pre-registered Aug 2024 · fielded with Prolific UK · International Migration Review, forthcoming
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
I ran several robustness checks — Tobit, census weights, full sample including non-White respondents, post-treatment attention check sensitivity — all return consistent results. The core finding holds.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Caveats worth flagging: – Sample overrepresents university graduates (51% vs 31% nationally) → likely a conservative estimate of bias – AI-generated images; South African context; UK-only sample – Interaction term is directional but not formally significant
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
This contrasts with previous research, which finds the skill premium to be more or less uniform across the population. Here it's 3× larger among immigration opponents than supporters — and it's the Black doctor who gets penalised more sharply as attitudes harden.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Who drives this? It depends heavily on pre-existing immigration attitudes. Among the most immigration-sceptic respondents, the doctor-vs-fast-food rating gap reaches nearly 3.8 points. Among the most pro-immigration respondents, the same gap is only 1.2 points.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Two competing hypotheses: H1 (compounded disadvantage): non-White + low-skill = double penalty H2 (bias activation): high status makes ethnicity more salient The data support H2. The interaction term (fast-food × African = +0.24) points the right way but doesn't reach significance.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Fast-food workers: no ethnic penalty. OLS coef. for African descent: –0.06, p > .05. Race didn't shift evaluations for the low-status applicant. Medical doctors: clear ethnic penalty. OLS coef.: –0.30, p < .01. Being Black cost the doctor ~1/3 of a rating point.
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
In the pooled OLS model (both occupations), African descent carries a penalty of –0.18 pts (p < .05). But disaggregating by occupation tells the real story:
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Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Overall the sample was fairly pro-immigration: average rating of 7.55/10 across all vignettes. Only 23% of respondents thought immigration had a net negative impact on the UK. But that average hides a striking occupation-by-ethnicity interaction.
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