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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

And, by the way, no one really cares about it - at least among German politicians, even though demography is, in my opinion, our most serious economic challenge. /END

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

I fully agree. But even the best childcare etc. can not fully compensate for the opportunity costs. The best we can do is to stabilize the FR at a low equilibrium, but imo we will not see a significant increase that would solve our demographic problems. 1/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

that these messures are enough to cause a strong reversal in the fertility rate. The main reason for the decline in the latter is higher education and thus better employment opportunities for women. /END

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

I have seen some data that, in Germany, the fertility decline is mainly driven by a later age when the first child was born, consequently fewer consecutive children (while the share of childless women is fairly stable over time). Better childcare etc. may increase fertility, but I have doubts… 1/

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Fabian Wahl @wahlfabi.bsky.social · 18/05/2025

Thank you for the amazing podcast episode and for featuring @thilohuning.bsky.social and my research on the role of wine growing for long-run regional development in Baden-Württemberg (academic.oup.com/ereh/advance...) in the episode!

academic.oup.com

Can Winegrowing Cause Rural Development? Evidence from Baden-Württemberg

Abstract. Historical winegrowing shaped modern rural development, even in areas in which its cultivation was given up after the early modern period. We pro

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Thilo N. H. Albers @thiloalbers.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

We are looking to hire post-doc interested in working on migration, citizenship, and diaspora. Come join us in Münster! Generous contract + no teaching for 2 years. Many details and link to job add here: sites.google.com/site/tnhalbe... Please PM me incase you have questions!

sites.google.com

Thilo N. H. Albers - Job ads

2 years postdoc with a thematic focus on Migration, Diaspora, Citizenship

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Bård Harstad @bardharstad.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

After being an editor for 6.5 years (4 REStud; 2.5 JEEA), I have accumulated a few suggestions that can help you avoid unnecessary rejections.

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Erschreckend ist vor allem, dass die Republikaner diesem Schwachsinn mehrheitlich quasi apathisch zuschauen. Und ja: wer in DE jetzt noch Trump, Musk etc. noch unterstützt, dem ist nicht mehr zu helfen. Ökonomisch ist das alles absurd.

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Guillaume Blanc @guillaumeblanc.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Going to give this website a try - with a new profile picture! Definitely feels like an econ bubble, but I guess that’s the point. Expect a thread on my newest work, Malthusian Migrations (with @romainwacziarg.bsky.social), soon! 🚨 www.guillaumeblanc.com/files/theme/...

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Guillaume Blanc @guillaumeblanc.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

🚨 Migration as escape valve from Malthus 🚨 1) high fertility or late fertility transition -> spread of diasporas 2) Age of Mass Migration -> transition to modern growth www.nber.org/papers/w33542 @nber.org @romainwacziarg.bsky.social

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Laetitia Lenel @laetitialenel.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

*Best Paper Award Economic and Social History* Bis zum 09. März kann man sich noch mit Vorträgen, die für den kommenden 6. Kongress für Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte angenommen wurden, für den Best Paper Award Economic and Social History bewerben. Alle weiteren Informationen hier: udue.de/0ifec

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Thilo Huning @thilohuning.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

Can winegrowing cause rural development? @wahlfabi.bsky.social and I have just published our little piece on this in the European Historical Economics Review! academic.oup.com/ereh/advance... #econhist #economics #history

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

This is a great data source for scholars working on the economic history of the interwar period 👇

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

I don’t make any statement whether this behavior is rational or not. Overall, it is not very rational to vote AfD. Nevertheless, if you talk with people in rural areas, this was a big deal.

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

And we see of course a strong negative correlation between low population density (= rural areas) and AfD voting. /END

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Also interacted with time, since my impression is that the AfD gained momentum due to the long „heating law debate“ - below average income people living at the country side in their own house are those who are primarily affected by this regulation. 2/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

For me, the most striking result of these regressions is the that the „East Germany“ effect gets insignificant when controlling for enough variables, at least in the most recent election. (Also knowing that we only see correlations.) Would be interesting to see the effect of „Home Ownership Rate“ 1/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Generell wäre ein Crashkurs in empirischer Wirtschafts- bzw. Sozialforschung für viele Journalisten sehr sinnvoll.

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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

If one attempts to fit a simple regression model for the AfD's gain since 2021, other predictors appear to be more robust than the GDP per capita of a constituency. Per capita disposable income also seems to be a weak predictor and quickly becomes insignificant when control variables are added.

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Könnte mir vorstellen, dass es hier eine positive Korrelation gibt. Mein Gefühl (noch nicht gestützt durch Daten) ist, dass die Heizungsgesetz-Diskussion der AfD nochmal einen starken Push von ~10 auf ~20 gegeben hat, relevant vor allem für Leute mit kleinem Haus. / END

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Anekdotisch: in meinem alten Heimatkreis Calw (Schwarzwald, ökonomisch sehr solide Gegend ohne Not) hat die AfD auch schon stärker abgeschnitten als der Rest. Ich würde noch „Home Ownership Rate“ in die Regression aufnehmen… 2/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Danke für die Regressionen. Für mich vor allem interessant, dass der Ost-Dummy insignifikant wird. In den Medien wird immer noch das Narrativ verbreitet, dass die AfD im Osten stark ist. Wenn ich mir aber jetzt die Karte anschaue, sieht man z.B. auch in RLP hohe Anteile… 1/

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Bernhard Ganglmair @ganglmair.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

ZEW Mannheim @zew.de is on the Sky now. Follow us and add us to your starter packs for economic analyses from and for Germany, Europe, and beyond! #EconSky

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Julius Koschnick @juliuskoschnick.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

🚨🚨🚨PhD summer school at the University of Southern Denmark 🚨🚨🚨What can we learn about tariffs and trade from history? Chris Meisner, our keynote speaker, is one of the most renowned experts on historical trade and policy. + Learn ML + NLP tools in a hands-on-approach. Join us 11-22 August 2025!

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

Eigentlich wäre Tesla der perfekte Short-Kandidat, aber es besteht eben das Risiko, dass er mit Buddy Trump irgendeinen Deal macht, der der Aktie wieder einen Push gibt. (Ähnliches gilt für Palantir.)

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Charlotte Bartels @charlottebartels.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Join my new Public Economics team at @unileipzig.bsky.social! A 100% PhD/Postdoc position with teaching and a 75% PhD position in a DFG research project on the triangle of growth, housing and voting in Germany with @sebastiankohl.bsky.social & @trgn.bsky.social. Apply until Feb 28

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

This is one of the best recent articles on the development of AI companies and NVIDIA‘s market power (which may decrease in the near feature, raising serious doubts about its current valuation…) youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/05_the_...

youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com

The Short Case for Nvidia Stock

All the reasons why Nvidia will have a very hard time living up to the currently lofty expectations of the market.

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

This is a very important paper for economists analyzing spatial data 👇

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

A good example is Fritz Thyssen, who was an early supporter of Hitler, but then he fled to Switzerland when the war broke out and criticized the regime (result: confiscation of his assets and he was put under arrest when he tried to emigrate to Argentine via (occupied) France. /END

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

As long as you were politically no opponent to the regime (or Jewish), there was no threat, in my opinion. Criticizing the regime concerning economic policy was also tolerated but if you would have openly criticized the war entry, for example, consequences would have been likely… 1/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

If you speak/read German, this handbook (edited by Boldorf & Scherner) provides an extensive overview of the literature (if you have more specific questions, you can also send me a message): books.google.de/books?id=tIS...

books.google.de

Handbuch Wirtschaft im Nationalsozialismus

Der Band bietet ein Kompendium zur deutschen Wirtschaft unter dem Nationalsozialismus unter Einschluss der Kriegsperiode und der Besatzungswirtschaft. Wirtschaftsgeschichte wird in einem umfassenden...

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

To sum up: privately owned firms dominated the German economy in the Nazi period. (I will continue this Thread soon by discussing market restrictions such as price controls, the second dimension, as described above) /END

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

The literature provides (to the best of my knowledge) no serious estimates about the quantitative dimension of state-owned companies in Nazi Germany but, without any doubt, we know that these companies were less important than typically assumed. 11/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Apart from that, during the war, there were even government- internal discussions about a potential reprivatization of the Reichswerke (again evidence against the nationalization claims). 10/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

but there was a compensation and the economic loss was small for the private steel companies. Overall, the Reichswerke remained relatively small, when measured with the output / revenue of its works and compared to its largest competitor (Vereinigte Stahlwerke). 9/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

(which was not profitable for private companies) and to create additional iron and steel production capacities (which was also not profitable for private companies). Private companies lost their iron ore mines in the Salzgitter (which was de facto an expropriation)… 8/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

e.g. the state got control over Junker’s aircraft company in 1933 and in 1937 the Reichswerke „Hermann Göring“ were founded. The latter is heavily discussed in the literature (would deserve its own thread). Its main purpose was to ramp-up domestic iron ore mining… 7/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

(which stands in clear contrast to the nationalization claim.) After 1933, the Nazi government also refrained from the nationalization of other private businesses or the creation of state-owned companies, but there are exceptional cases: 6/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Shares in companies that were bought as part of bail-out programs after the banking crisis of 1931 (large banks and GBAG/Vereinigte Stahlwerke). Actually, the Nazi government sold its shares of the latter in the mid-1930s as part of large privatization program 5/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

In Germany, the state already owned significant shareholdings before 1933, including the VIAG and VEBA holdings (including mainly utilities (electricity), but also aluminium-production, machine-building companies, and mining firms; VEBA owned by the Prussian state) as well as 4/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Looking at (1) the share of state-owned companies, we can start with the extreme points: an economic system with (almost) no private property such as the economic system of the Soviet Union vs. a system with (almost) 100% privately owned business such as the US today. 3/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

To categorize economic systems it makes sense to use to a two dimensional scale/two variables for simplification: (1) the share of state-owned companies, (2) the degree to which the allocation of goods and services (in the broadest sense) is planned/regulated by the state. 2/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

A larger 🧵 on the economic system of Nazi Germany (motivated by Alice Weidel’s recent claim that Germany was „communist“ under the Nazi regime and that the German industry was „nationalized“ - both claims are historically wrong): 1/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

also through partnerships, given that steam engines were already in broad use by 1870. Would be nice to analyze this more systematically, but your Swedish data seem to be much better. /END

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

The liberalization of the German stock market law in 1870 changed the situation so that joint stock companies could be freely incorporated, which helped of course the scaling of industrial enterprises. But my point is that, the (broad) adoption of steam engines seem to have worked in Germany 3/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

as said above, most joint stock companies were founded in the mining and metal industry (which supports of course your scale argument) but in other sectors, corporations played no important role. (Exception: the Free Hanseatic cities that had already liberal stock corporation laws before 1870). 2/

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Alexander Donges @alexanderdonges.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

The German stock corporation laws differed strongly before 1870, when the nationwide German stock corporation law was introduced. In Prussia (and most other states) stock corporations could only be founded with a state concession but the granting of concessions was very restrictive… 1/

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