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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Hey everyone! I made a starter pack for Spatial/Urban Economics PhD students + postdocs. Thank you @tradediversion.bsky.social for the JM candidate list! Feel free to nominate yourself or other students working on these topics. go.bsky.app/Jwvpctx

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Reposted by Alejandro Parraguez

UT-Austin Economics @utaustinecon.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

We have a great group of PhD students on the job market this year! Check them out, and contact placement director @mikegeruso.bsky.social with any questions. liberalarts.utexas.edu/economics/ph...

liberalarts.utexas.edu

College of Liberal Arts | The University of Texas at Austin

Liberal Arts at UT offers over 40 majors and many top-ranked graduate programs in the social sciences and humanities taught by 750 faculty.

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Reposted by Alejandro Parraguez

UT-Austin Economics @utaustinecon.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

We've made it to Bluesky! Please re-post so others can follows us... 🤘

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

Thank you for putting this starter pack together! Would be great to be added: @alejandroecon.bsky.social Thanks!

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

Thank you for putting this starter pack together! Would be great to be added: @alejandroecon.bsky.social Thanks!

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

Understanding the time-dependent dynamics of migration shocks is crucial for designing policies that balance local and national goals. Read more about my findings here: alejandro-pt.github.io/papers/parra...

alejandro-pt.github.io

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

I estimate the model parameters using impulse response matching, aligning the model's simulated responses with the empirical evidence from the first part of my paper.

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

To capture the aggregate effects, I develop a dynamic spatial model. This continuous time framework incorporates forward-looking households, mobility frictions, and productivity spillovers to track how migration shocks ripple through the economy.

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

↘️ At the aggregate level, deporting 1% of the population reduces long-run output per worker by 1%. So, while initially achieving short-term goals like reducing congestion, these policies can have persistent unintended consequences, taking decades to fully materialize.

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

I use a panel vector-autoregression with a shift-share instrument based on lagged birth rates to capture these time-dependent effects. This ensures robust estimates of migration's causal impacts at the local level.

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

As migrants move into newly de-congested regions, local economies respond. ↗️ At the commuting zone level, I find that a 1% rise of migration inflows increases wages and output per worker by 0.15%-0.25% and housing prices by 1%—peaking 4 years after the shock.

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

But migration is dynamic and responds to such policies. My JMP shows these policies can have unintended effects: as regions become less congested, they attract new migration flows, potentially reversing short-term gains.

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

In the U.S., debates around deportation and worker relocation often focus on reducing congestion or lowering housing prices. www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/economy/new-home-undocumented-immigrants-trump/index.html

cnn.com

Here’s how mass deportations could change the housing market | CNN Business

President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrations may backfire, driving up the cost of homebuying even further.

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Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

🚨Job Market Paper Alert🚨 How do localized migrations shocks, such as deportations, impact aggregate productivity over time? I’m on the 2024-2025 #EconJobMarket, and my #EconJMP uncovers some of the unintended, long-lasting consequences of these policies. 🧵

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