Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024↘️ At the aggregate level, deporting 1% of the population reduces long-run output per worker by 1%. So, while initially achieving short-term goals like reducing congestion, these policies can have persistent unintended consequences, taking decades to fully materialize. 130
Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024As migrants move into newly de-congested regions, local economies respond. ↗️ At the commuting zone level, I find that a 1% rise of migration inflows increases wages and output per worker by 0.15%-0.25% and housing prices by 1%—peaking 4 years after the shock. 120
Alejandro Parraguez @alejandroecon.bsky.social · 07/12/2024But migration is dynamic and responds to such policies. My JMP shows these policies can have unintended effects: as regions become less congested, they attract new migration flows, potentially reversing short-term gains. 120