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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets

@ak4sb.bsky.social
190 followers 11 following 6.1K posts

A non-partisan project focused on helping develop and advocate for responsible state and federal fiscal policies.

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 14h
As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 4x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 14x more, and the fourth approach takes 17x more. 6/end
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 14h
As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive, taking more from 80% of #AKfams than the first approach. 5/6
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 14h
* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax, * Abandoning a rules-based PFD and using the "leftover" PFD approach (which reduces the PFD over the period to 22.1% of the POMV draw). 4/6
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 14h
𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙, we then look at four ways of closing the deficit. * Retaining the current law PFD and using a flat tax to close the deficit instead, * Restructuring the PFD as POMV 50/50, w/ the remaining deficit filled through a flat tax, 3/6
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 14h
𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information. Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $2.31 billion (34% of the UGF budget, ~5.0% of Alaska AGI, ~3.2% of Alaska Private Sector GDP). 2/6
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 14h
The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg 1/6
bit.ly
Brad Keithley’s chart of the week: The new "Goldilocks" charts
Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set…
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 15h
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekl…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Weekly Top 3 (10.5.2026)
Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 18h
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.68% v PFC 6.11% * 3-yr: S&P 23.29% v PFC 9.89% * 1-yr: S&P 16.32% v PFC 10.37%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 18h
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Avg FYTD: $91 > +Futures: $99 (+$1.19bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $73 (+$84mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 20h
Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY27 ⬆️ $24.00/b (+$1.16bn UGF), FY27-36 avg $76 ($2.90B avg UGF, ⬆️ $190 mil v SPRING26 F'cast rev). 2/end
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 20h
The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $17), mid (⬆️ $4) & long-term (⬇️ $5) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev). 1/2
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: A few cherry-picked examples of state spending don’t support using only PFD cuts to close the overall state deficit
Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state's ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekl…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Weekly Top 3 (10.5.2026)
Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.75% v PFC 6.11% * 3-yr: S&P 23.48% v PFC 9.89% * 1-yr: S&P 17.55% v PFC 10.37%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Avg FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $97 (+$1.10bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $73 (+$79mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Looking at the same data, the second calculates the avg production required over the remainder of the FY to meet F'cast. With 73% remaining, the avg level needed over the remainder to meet the FY27 F'cast is 541kbd, 5% ⬆️ current month levels. 2/end
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 27% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -23kbd (-5%) v. F'cast. 1/2
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: A few cherry-picked examples of state spending don’t support using only PFD cuts to close the overall state deficit
Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state's ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The knee-jerk response of many #akleg: we need more gov't services (K-12, child care, etc). Our response: #WhoPays? Theirs: PFD cuts. Ours: Ah, the death spiral. Killing the patient (by reducing the income of middle-income #AKfams even more) to "save" them. buff.ly/vHZxEQL
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.99% v PFC 6.11% * 3-yr: S&P 23.57% v PFC 9.89% * 1-yr: S&P 17.36% v PFC 10.37%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Avg FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $97 (+$1.09bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $73 (+$105mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekl…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Weekly Top 3 (10.5.2026)
Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: A few cherry-picked examples of state spending don’t support using only PFD cuts to close the overall state deficit
Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state's ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.95% v PFC 6.11% * 3-yr: S&P 23.82% v PFC 9.89% * 1-yr: S&P 17.11% v PFC 10.37%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Avg FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $97 (+$1.06bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $73 (+$66mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The Tuesday Chart| #akleg Given Southcentral winter service concerns, we have started a new weekly chart tracking the current status of the two commercial Cook Inlet gas storage fields, based on the public dashboards each maintains, as well as the most recent aggregate (all fields) DNR Dashboard.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
This Wk's Top 3| Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, some repeat #APFC press releases but we look at the numbers & #akleg D/I's want "investment" in K-12 paid for mostly on middle-income #AKfams. T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at www.facebook.com/share/1Eokzn8ieA
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: A few cherry-picked examples of state spending don’t support using only PFD cuts to close the overall state deficit
Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state's ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The #LNG price risk is huge. #akleg The Economist: The world is facing an almighty LNG crunch - In time it could bring about an equally disruptive glut www.economist.com/finance-and-econo…
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.74% v PFC 6.11% * 3-yr: S&P 23.27% v PFC 9.89% * 1-yr: S&P 16.35% v PFC 10.37%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Avg FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $98 (+$1.11bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $72 (+$57mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The Monday Charts | Consistent with the approach explained at bit.ly/3QhAUju, each Monday we compare current futures market prices for projected #AKLNG in-state-only (Phase 1) and #AKLNG export (Phase 2) prices against market alternatives. #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
#AKgov & #AKleg candidate positions on PFD cuts aren't determined by party. Instead, they depend on the income bracket of the candidates and their supporters. Here's why. buff.ly/zhIjAXv
buff.ly
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: They don’t really object to “free money;” they just want more of it to flow to their pockets instead
Some recent comments reminded us that it's been a while since we wrote about the Tax Avoidance...… Read More
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast |The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans. #akleg buff.ly/WjB1hzh
buff.ly
The Weekly Top 3 (9.28.2026)
The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: A few cherry-picked examples of state spending don’t support using only PFD cuts to close the overall state deficit
Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state's ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨: We track the current Fed funds rate + 10-, 20- & 30-year US Treas Bond yields. buff.ly/s4UmZOa Effective Fed funds rate: 3.88% US Treas Bond yields -- **10-Yr: 5.24%** 20-Yr: 5.64% 30-Yr: 5.61% 4/end
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
> Second, the current rate + forward expectations as measured in the Treas market. buff.ly/ndnSvSs Current: 3.35% (Aug) 10yr Avg: 2.36% Next 5yrs: 2.37% 5 yrs Beyond That: 2.35% 3/4
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation: > First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. buff.ly/d7UJT1E PCE: up 56.0% (5.6%/yr) CPI: up 28.3% (2.8%/yr) 2/4
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg 1/4
buff.ly
FRED Graph
FRED Graph
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: A surge in foreign-flagged charters to Asia. #akleg * Deliveries month to date: 2.2 * Not in ANS service: 1 CP in maint * Asia: 3 FF (EM, Santos, Hilcorp) * USWC: 9 (4 CP, 3 HIL, 2 EM, 0 MPC)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
End-of-Month (Sept26) Summary for ANS Tankers. 14.8 deliveries (Rolling 12-month avg%). #akleg CA: 5.7 (45%) WA: 8.2 (44%) AK: 1.0 (7%) HI: 0.0 (2%) Asia: 0.0 (3%) Significant during the month: 2 FF underway to Asia.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $108, ahead of Brent (+$4.17), and Brent/WTI avg (+$7.81). #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast |The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekl…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Weekly Top 3 (9.28.2026)
The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Building on that, we publish a second chart tracking the impact of the revs generated at current projected oil price levels against the projected FY27 budget. At projected price, production & spending levels, projected revs are $928mil ⬆️ breakeven. 2/end
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 25% of FY27 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬆️ 25% to SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY27 WAVG currently $94. #akleg 1/2
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.74% v PFC 6.11% * 3-yr: S&P 23.27% v PFC 9.89% * 1-yr: S&P 16.35% v PFC 10.37%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Avg FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $97 (+$1.1bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $72 (+$54mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Avg FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $97 (+$1.1bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $72 (+$54mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: A few cherry-picked examples of state spending don’t support using only PFD cuts to close the overall state deficit
Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state's ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The second chart compares the PFC and S&P 500 ETF fund balances and POMV draws, calculated from a common FY19 starting point. As the chart shows, thru current month-end FY26, the S&P 500 ETF proxy has a SIGNIFICANTLY higher balance and is producing SIGNIFICANTLY greater POMV draws. 4/end
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