Sign in

Africa Confidential

@africa-confidential.com
1.5K followers 84 following 724 posts

In-depth analysis of political, economic and security developments across the African continent since 1960. See more: africa-conf.com/m/Africa-Conf

PostsRepliesMedia
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#Ethiopia: For the second time this decade, #TPLF leaders appear to have miscalculated badly. Their reliance on brittle new alliances has left them fleeing #Mekelle and facing a decisive blow to their movement. africa-conf.com/abiy-turns-t...
africa-conf.com
Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists
The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines
001
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
Within minutes of #WicknellChivayo’s fatal helicopter crash, #Zimbabwe’s state security officers secured the premises of his multi-million-dollar mansion, to apparently safeguard gold and diamonds. africa-conf.com/chivayos-pre...
africa-conf.com
Wicknell Chivayo’s presidential network loses its broker
Far flung tributes underline the reach of a businessman whose access to African leaders was clearer than the commercial arrangements underpinning it
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
Octogenarian President #PeterMutharika grows increasingly frail and absent; as his inner circle of First Lady Gertrude Mutharika, stepson Tadikira Mafubza and bodyguard Norman Chisale grow increasingly more important. africa-conf.com/mutharika-fl...
africa-conf.com
Mutharika flounders after his dramatic comeback
Struggling with corruption, a weak economy, and poor health, the president is surrounded by would be successors
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#Ethiopia: Even as government forces advance north, insurgent attacks on federal supply routes – including the capture of #MekaneSelam – threaten to disrupt their campaign. africa-conf.com/tplf-loses-m...
africa-conf.com
TPLF loses Mekelle, mountain war begins
Federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital and southern corridor, but TPLF and Eritrean soldiers may turn this advance into a costly highland campaign
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#SouthAfrica: Senior police officials say that compromised officials are being exposed while authority is consolidating around their rivals after a wave of revelations into graft in South African Police Service (#SAPS). africa-conf.com/commission-e...
africa-conf.com
Commission exposes battle over the law
Withdrawn prosecutions and disciplinary cases are reshaping policing and anti-corruption, testing Ramaphosa’s commitment to restore credibility
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
Any Ethiopian move on #Eritrea faces stiff resistance: #TPLF fighters, Eritrea’s nationalist troops, and overt political backing for #Asmara from Egypt, Sudan and Somalia. africa-conf.com/abiy-turns-t...
africa-conf.com
Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists
The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#Ethiopia: Reports of Eritrean mechanised units entering #Tigray points to a widening regional role as the conflict moves deeper into the interior. #Eritrea africa-conf.com/tplf-loses-m...
africa-conf.com
TPLF loses Mekelle, mountain war begins
Federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital and southern corridor, but TPLF and Eritrean soldiers may turn this advance into a costly highland campaign
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#Ethiopia: With federal troops in #Mekelle, PM Abiy may weigh a move against #Eritrea and the Port of #Assab – a step that could sharply raise tensions across the #RedSea region. africa-conf.com/abiy-turns-t...
africa-conf.com
Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists
The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
After losing #Mekelle and key southern routes, rebel forces have been forced into a rapid retreat, abandoning early gains as government troops push north. #Ethiopia africa-conf.com/tplf-loses-m...
africa-conf.com
TPLF loses Mekelle, mountain war begins
Federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital and southern corridor, but TPLF and Eritrean soldiers may turn this advance into a costly highland campaign
031
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
The Alliance for Survival promised a united front against PM #AbiyAhmed. On the ground, it has delivered little more than scattered operations and fresh conflict on #Tigray’s borders. africa-conf.com/abiy-turns-t...
africa-conf.com
Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists
The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
The sudden death of #WicknellChivayo follows a rapid rise. After hustling as an illegal money changer in 90’s #Harare, he earned much of his money from government contracts from the #Mugabe and #Mnangagwa administrations. africa-conf.com/chivayos-pre...
africa-conf.com
Wicknell Chivayo’s presidential network loses its broker
Far flung tributes underline the reach of a businessman whose access to African leaders was clearer than the commercial arrangements underpinning it
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
Government forces have swept through a series of towns to take #Mekelle, overturning early rebel gains and pushing the war into steep highland terrain. #Ethiopia africa-conf.com/tplf-loses-m...
africa-conf.com
TPLF loses Mekelle, mountain war begins
Federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital and southern corridor, but TPLF and Eritrean soldiers may turn this advance into a costly highland campaign
010
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
85-year-old #PeterMutharika has been talking tough, but his frequent private trips to #SouthAfrica, and absence from public events has left Malawians to ask – who is running their country? africa-conf.com/mutharika-fl...
africa-conf.com
Mutharika flounders after his dramatic comeback
Struggling with corruption, a weak economy, and poor health, the president is surrounded by would be successors
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
The final report on criminal influence in South Africa’s police service is due on 25 January 2027, but the investigation is already upending the service. #SAPS #MbuyiseliMadlanga africa-conf.com/commission-e...
africa-conf.com
Commission exposes battle over the law
Withdrawn prosecutions and disciplinary cases are reshaping policing and anti-corruption, testing Ramaphosa’s commitment to restore credibility
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#TPLF’s sudden retreat from #Mekelle has reshaped #Ethiopia’s political battlefield, exposing the fragility of the coalition formed to confront PM #Abiy’s government. africa-conf.com/abiy-turns-t...
africa-conf.com
Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists
The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines
011
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
A regime of structural reforms, privatisation of state-owned enterprises and higher taxes are the price of the US$1.47bn loan for President #Hichilema was agreed in principle on 9 October. Confirming it requires an #IMF board vote. africa-conf.com/hichilema-ba...
africa-conf.com
Hichilema banks the IMF deal after the vote
The President waited until after his re-election to sign up to the Fund’s austerity menu. The price is higher taxes, privatisation and reform
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#Rabat’s migration partnership with #Madrid is on the negotiating table as #Spain’s Premier fights to retain power in the upcoming 29 November election. #Morocco's King Mohammed VI is rejecting ‘pressure, threat, or blackmail’. africa-conf.com/rabat-raises...
africa-conf.com
Rabat raises the stakes in Sánchez’s election gamble
Mohammed VI’s warning over migration strengthens the Spanish opposition’s border campaign, while a possible PP–Vox government complicates Madrid’s next move
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 14/10/2026
#NaviPillay’s accolade sharpens the focus on international justice as President Trump’s administration moves to restrict the financial and technological infrastructure supporting the International Criminal Court. #NobelPeacePrize #ICC africa-conf.com/us-squeezes-...
africa-conf.com
After Navi Pillay’s Nobel win, the US squeezes the International Criminal Court
Washington’s sanctions threaten the ICC’s essential services as the Nobel Committee boosts the international law camp
010
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 29/09/2026
Africa Confidential is on Substack 👇. You can read our new piece here on why #Ethiopia's peace accord broke down and how the new regional alliances will affect the course of the war 🇪🇹. africa-conf.com/substack-for...
001
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 29/09/2026
Voter turnout slumped from 50% to 38% in #Morocco’s elections, underlying the increasing apathy of the electorate - frustrating Mohammed VI, who hoped to convey legitimacy to the regime. africa-conf.com/morocco-elec...
africa-conf.com
Centrist Parti Authenticité et Modernité wins election as turnout falls to 38%
Winning 97 seats puts PAM first in coalition talks, but alienated voters and resurgent Islamist opposition muddies the organisation of a World Cup-era government
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
In this week’s escalation, #Ethiopia’s army has drones – its opponents have more fronts. Fighting around #Tigray is spreading into #Afar and# Amhara, testing whether federal firepower can contain a dispersed insurgency. #PoliticalRisk africa-conf.com/ethiopiaconf...
africa-conf.com
Abiy’s military advantage meets a broader insurgent challenge
Federal forces retain superior air power, but the disparate coalition opposing them is stretching them across several fronts
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#SalvaKiir’s lurch towards power consolidation may be an attempt to bluff the international community. Though the EU ambassador has responded sceptically, Washington insists #SouthSudan’s elections are its own business. africa-conf.com/salva-kiir-r...
africa-conf.com
Salva Kiir retains sweeping powers ahead of ‘one-party state’ election in December
Electoral law changes boost the president as oppositionists and rights groups ask whether the vote can be credible
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
Amidst attempts to build bridges with Trump, Britain’s new #Burnham-led administration has canned its controversial agreement to hand over sovereignty of the #Chagos archipelago to #Mauritius. africa-conf.com/london-pause...
africa-conf.com
London pauses Chagos payments as Trump blocks Diego Garcia deal
British officials say their 99-year base lease cannot proceed without US backing – reopening negotiations with Mauritius on the sovereignty deal
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#Ethiopia’s Dessie–Woldia road is a pressure point for federal troops. Our correspondent describes a #Fano plan to block it – both to disrupt supplies to the Addis government but perhaps a plan for a lightning strike on the capital. #SupplyChains africa-conf.com/substack-for...
africa-conf.com
Former enemies unite against Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa
Tigrayan and Amhara commanders are fighting a common adversary but they have yet to resolve their competing claims in western Tigray
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#Ethiopia’s Dessie–Woldia road is a pressure point for federal troops. Our correspondent describes a #Fano plan to block it – both to disrupt supplies to the Addis government but perhaps a plan for a lightning strike on the capital. #SupplyChains africa-conf.com/ethiopiaconf...
africa-conf.com
Abiy’s military advantage meets a broader insurgent challenge
Federal forces retain superior air power, but the disparate coalition opposing them is stretching them across several fronts
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
In this week’s escalation, #Ethiopia’s army has drones – its opponents have more fronts. Fighting around #Tigray is spreading into #Afar and# Amhara, testing whether federal firepower can contain a dispersed insurgency. #PoliticalRisk africa-conf.com/substack-for...
africa-conf.com
Former enemies unite against Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa
Tigrayan and Amhara commanders are fighting a common adversary but they have yet to resolve their competing claims in western Tigray
010
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
Read our #Ethiopia correspondent’s account of why the peace accord broke down and how the new regional alliances will affect the course of the war. 🇪🇹 Africa Confidential is now on Substack 👇. africa-conf.com/substack-for...
africa-conf.com
Former enemies unite against Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa
Tigrayan and Amhara commanders are fighting a common adversary but they have yet to resolve their competing claims in western Tigray
002
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
Backtracking on #ChagosIslands could be harder than simply halting payments. A new agreement will require a sign off from Mauritian PM Navin Ramgoolam and Trump, and could see legal challenges from Chagossians and the United Nations. africa-conf.com/london-pause...
africa-conf.com
London pauses Chagos payments as Trump blocks Diego Garcia deal
British officials say their 99-year base lease cannot proceed without US backing – reopening negotiations with Mauritius on the sovereignty deal
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#Africa: The Centre for Global Development has found that only 10% of the EU’s #GlobalGateway project is going to fund education and research, with funding concentrated in physical infrastructure. #China africa-conf.com/europe-is-be...
africa-conf.com
Europe is betting €200 billion on Africa and economic security
Brussels launched Global Gateway as an ethical alternative to China’s lending – now its priorities are economic sustainability with a preference for European business
010
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 26/09/2026
President #FélixTshisekedi says anyone acting ‘in the service of a foreign power – namely #Rwanda’ will be barred from the #NationalDialogue, ruling out AFC and M23 participation entirely. #DRC africa-conf.com/opposition-d...
africa-conf.com
Opposition demands talks on their terms
A dispute over who should be at the table has prompted opposition leaders to reject President Tshisekedi’s proposed Dialogue
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Half of #Mission300’s new connections are meant to come from grid expansion, the rest from #solar home systems and mini‑grids. The #WorldBank says US$30bn in public investment is needed for its share alone. africa-conf.com/electricity-...
africa-conf.com
Electricity drive confronts financing gap
Mission 300’s reported progress is good news – but it favours bankable governments rather than those whose electricity deprivation is deepest
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
After pushback on his referendum plan, #Tshisekedi now needs provincial diagnoses and the national synthesis to call for constitutional change and give him more time to pursue his mission to secure a third term. africa-conf.com/opposition-demands-talks-on-their-terms
africa-conf.com
Opposition demands talks on their terms
A dispute over who should be at the table has prompted opposition leaders to reject President Tshisekedi’s proposed Dialogue
011
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#AhunnaEziakonwa and #MartinKimani step into the United Nations's top #Africa roles – Eziakonwa as Special Advisor for Africa with a development brief, Kimani as Assistant Secretary‑General advising on peace and security and responding to emerging conflicts. africa-conf.com/a-un-lifer-a...
africa-conf.com
A UN lifer and a political diplomat take top roles
, Facing his last three months as United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres has overhauled two of the UN’s top Africa jobs. First to take office was Nigerian diplomat Ahunna Eziakonwa,…
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Moses Kuria was dropped from cabinet after the #GenZ protests, his abrasive style and weak record in two ministries making him a liability. He’s now back as #Ruto’s chief attack dog and is plotting a return to elected politics next August. africa-conf.com/team-ruto-pl...
africa-conf.com
Team Ruto plots its succession
State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#Zambia’s opposition candidate #BrianMundubile surged late in the campaign, alarming the ruling party. He officially took 38% to Hichilema’s 61% – but having gone into hiding, was later arrested and charged with treason. africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#DavidNdii remains Ruto’s most forceful policy voice, pushing panda and samurai bonds over an #IMF deal. His stance has put him at odds with senior Treasury and Foreign Affairs officials. #Kenya africa-conf.com/team-ruto-pl...
africa-conf.com
Team Ruto plots its succession
State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Opposition parties that long demanded a #NationalDialogue now refuse to join the process President #FélixTshisekedi announced on 27 August, saying it is too narrow and excludes key actors. #Kinshasa africa-conf.com/opposition-demands-talks-on-their-terms
africa-conf.com
Opposition demands talks on their terms
A dispute over who should be at the table has prompted opposition leaders to reject President Tshisekedi’s proposed Dialogue
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Allegations are mounting that the #UPND panicked during the 13 August count and stuffed ballots to secure a two‑thirds majority – a move analysts say had little effect but risks staining #Hichilema’s legitimacy. #Zambia africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
001
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
A new Local Content Bill would require foreign companies to employ 80% locally and source 60% of goods and services in‑country, with tougher rules for firms that rely on agricultural inputs. #Kenya #Trade #Ruto africa-conf.com/rutos-populi...
africa-conf.com
Ruto’s populist turn on foreign traders risks rattling investors
The crackdown on foreign small businesses, now folded into a sweeping localisation bill, tests the President’s  promise that Kenya remains open for capital
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#Mission300 has delivered 50 million new #electricity connections since 2023. It’s a strong start, but still far short of what #Africa needs as population growth and chronic power shortages continue to outpace progress. africa-conf.com/electricity-drive-confronts-financing-gap
africa-conf.com
Electricity drive confronts financing gap
Mission 300’s reported progress is good news – but it favours bankable governments rather than those whose electricity deprivation is deepest
010
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#Zambia: Observers note #Hichilema was always expected to win – even without interference. The question now is whether the harsh measures around the polls were an aberration or the start of a more authoritarian era. #EEAS africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
EU observers said the vote count was running smoothly before the #ECZ ordered a six‑hour pause – and that it deteriorated sharply when counting resumed. Many in #Lusaka believe the break gave ruling‑party activists time to stuff ballot boxes. #EEAS africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
President #Ruto’s sudden decree giving foreign traders 90 days to get work permits or leave has triggered panic, with Burundian and Congolese hawkers reporting intimidation and hundreds seeking refuge at their embassy. #Kenya africa-conf.com/rutos-populi...
africa-conf.com
Ruto’s populist turn on foreign traders risks rattling investors
The crackdown on foreign small businesses, now folded into a sweeping localisation bill, tests the President’s  promise that Kenya remains open for capital
015
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
President #Ruto has built a powerful circle of #StateHouse advisors whose influence now rivals the cabinet – and many are preparing to swap their desks for campaign rallies in next August’s polls. africa-conf.com/team-ruto-pl...
africa-conf.com
Team Ruto plots its succession
State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
#Djibouti’s President Ishmaël Omar Guelleh may be the biggest winner as pressure builds on the #BabelMandeb - exploiting sharpening geopolitical rivalries in the #RedSea to hike fees for basing rents and other services. africa-conf.com/houthi-seizu...
africa-conf.com
Houthi seizure of Yemeni coast threatens new Red Sea shock for Cairo
Egypt’s battered forex earnings face a fresh squeeze as rebels tighten their grip on the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint – Djibouti braces for a refugee surge
001
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
While #Libya's dual leaderships reached an #UN-brokered agreement on 30 August, a parliament vote to approve it lacked a quorum, there appears no prospect of approval by the High Council of the State and Turkey is pushing a rival track. africa-conf.com/under-pressure
africa-conf.com
Under pressure, rivals agree an elite pact for unity
Dubaiba and Haftar's lieutenants have signed a deal for reunification and elections, but the High State Council won't back them
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
Two #GlobalGateway projects worth €57.8 million (US$66.5m) were unveiled at the #Africa Green Hydrogen Summit in Cape Town on 15-16 September, backing South African green #hydrogen and battery value chains with Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands as partners. africa-conf.com/europe-is-be...
africa-conf.com
Europe is betting €200 billion on Africa and economic security
Brussels launched Global Gateway as an ethical alternative to China’s lending – now its priorities are economic sustainability with a preference for European business
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
Two #GlobalGateway projects worth €57.8 million (US$66.5m) were unveiled at the #Africa Green Hydrogen Summit in Cape Town on 15-16 September, backing South African green #hydrogen and battery value chains with Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands as partners. africa-conf.com/europe-is-be...
africa-conf.com
Europe is betting €200 billion on Africa and economic security
Brussels launched Global Gateway as an ethical alternative to China’s lending – now its priorities are economic sustainability with a preference for European business
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
#MarcoRubio has accused #SouthAfrica of ‘race-based’ discrimination, announcing visa restrictions for those involved, perhaps even implementing bans of government officials. africa-conf.com/ramaphosa-sh...
africa-conf.com
Ramaphosa shrugs off Washington’s visa curbs but braces for more
US ambassador warns of ‘escalatory measures’, testing Pretoria's bet that trade ties and a British G20 presidency will outlast Trump-era hostility
000
Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
Rival Libyan powers have signed a deal in #Tripoli setting out a path to reunification and elections within two years. Yet legal and political challenges at home and abroad threaten to derail it before its implementation. #UN africa-conf.com/under-pressure
africa-conf.com
Under pressure, rivals agree an elite pact for unity
Dubaiba and Haftar's lieutenants have signed a deal for reunification and elections, but the High State Council won't back them
010