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Africa Confidential

@africa-confidential.com
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In-depth analysis of political, economic and security developments across the African continent since 1960. See more: africa-conf.com/m/Africa-Conf

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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 29/09/2026
Africa Confidential is on Substack 👇. You can read our new piece here on why #Ethiopia's peace accord broke down and how the new regional alliances will affect the course of the war 🇪🇹. africa-conf.com/substack-for...
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 29/09/2026
Voter turnout slumped from 50% to 38% in #Morocco’s elections, underlying the increasing apathy of the electorate - frustrating Mohammed VI, who hoped to convey legitimacy to the regime. africa-conf.com/morocco-elec...
africa-conf.com
Centrist Parti Authenticité et Modernité wins election as turnout falls to 38%
Winning 97 seats puts PAM first in coalition talks, but alienated voters and resurgent Islamist opposition muddies the organisation of a World Cup-era government
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
In this week’s escalation, #Ethiopia’s army has drones – its opponents have more fronts. Fighting around #Tigray is spreading into #Afar and# Amhara, testing whether federal firepower can contain a dispersed insurgency. #PoliticalRisk africa-conf.com/ethiopiaconf...
africa-conf.com
Abiy’s military advantage meets a broader insurgent challenge
Federal forces retain superior air power, but the disparate coalition opposing them is stretching them across several fronts
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#SalvaKiir’s lurch towards power consolidation may be an attempt to bluff the international community. Though the EU ambassador has responded sceptically, Washington insists #SouthSudan’s elections are its own business. africa-conf.com/salva-kiir-r...
africa-conf.com
Salva Kiir retains sweeping powers ahead of ‘one-party state’ election in December
Electoral law changes boost the president as oppositionists and rights groups ask whether the vote can be credible
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
Amidst attempts to build bridges with Trump, Britain’s new #Burnham-led administration has canned its controversial agreement to hand over sovereignty of the #Chagos archipelago to #Mauritius. africa-conf.com/london-pause...
africa-conf.com
London pauses Chagos payments as Trump blocks Diego Garcia deal
British officials say their 99-year base lease cannot proceed without US backing – reopening negotiations with Mauritius on the sovereignty deal
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#Ethiopia’s Dessie–Woldia road is a pressure point for federal troops. Our correspondent describes a #Fano plan to block it – both to disrupt supplies to the Addis government but perhaps a plan for a lightning strike on the capital. #SupplyChains africa-conf.com/substack-for...
africa-conf.com
Former enemies unite against Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa
Tigrayan and Amhara commanders are fighting a common adversary but they have yet to resolve their competing claims in western Tigray
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#Ethiopia’s Dessie–Woldia road is a pressure point for federal troops. Our correspondent describes a #Fano plan to block it – both to disrupt supplies to the Addis government but perhaps a plan for a lightning strike on the capital. #SupplyChains africa-conf.com/ethiopiaconf...
africa-conf.com
Abiy’s military advantage meets a broader insurgent challenge
Federal forces retain superior air power, but the disparate coalition opposing them is stretching them across several fronts
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
In this week’s escalation, #Ethiopia’s army has drones – its opponents have more fronts. Fighting around #Tigray is spreading into #Afar and# Amhara, testing whether federal firepower can contain a dispersed insurgency. #PoliticalRisk africa-conf.com/substack-for...
africa-conf.com
Former enemies unite against Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa
Tigrayan and Amhara commanders are fighting a common adversary but they have yet to resolve their competing claims in western Tigray
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
Read our #Ethiopia correspondent’s account of why the peace accord broke down and how the new regional alliances will affect the course of the war. 🇪🇹 Africa Confidential is now on Substack 👇. africa-conf.com/substack-for...
africa-conf.com
Former enemies unite against Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa
Tigrayan and Amhara commanders are fighting a common adversary but they have yet to resolve their competing claims in western Tigray
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
Backtracking on #ChagosIslands could be harder than simply halting payments. A new agreement will require a sign off from Mauritian PM Navin Ramgoolam and Trump, and could see legal challenges from Chagossians and the United Nations. africa-conf.com/london-pause...
africa-conf.com
London pauses Chagos payments as Trump blocks Diego Garcia deal
British officials say their 99-year base lease cannot proceed without US backing – reopening negotiations with Mauritius on the sovereignty deal
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 28/09/2026
#Africa: The Centre for Global Development has found that only 10% of the EU’s #GlobalGateway project is going to fund education and research, with funding concentrated in physical infrastructure. #China africa-conf.com/europe-is-be...
africa-conf.com
Europe is betting €200 billion on Africa and economic security
Brussels launched Global Gateway as an ethical alternative to China’s lending – now its priorities are economic sustainability with a preference for European business
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 26/09/2026
President #FélixTshisekedi says anyone acting ‘in the service of a foreign power – namely #Rwanda’ will be barred from the #NationalDialogue, ruling out AFC and M23 participation entirely. #DRC africa-conf.com/opposition-d...
africa-conf.com
Opposition demands talks on their terms
A dispute over who should be at the table has prompted opposition leaders to reject President Tshisekedi’s proposed Dialogue
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Half of #Mission300’s new connections are meant to come from grid expansion, the rest from #solar home systems and mini‑grids. The #WorldBank says US$30bn in public investment is needed for its share alone. africa-conf.com/electricity-...
africa-conf.com
Electricity drive confronts financing gap
Mission 300’s reported progress is good news – but it favours bankable governments rather than those whose electricity deprivation is deepest
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
After pushback on his referendum plan, #Tshisekedi now needs provincial diagnoses and the national synthesis to call for constitutional change and give him more time to pursue his mission to secure a third term. africa-conf.com/opposition-demands-talks-on-their-terms
africa-conf.com
Opposition demands talks on their terms
A dispute over who should be at the table has prompted opposition leaders to reject President Tshisekedi’s proposed Dialogue
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#AhunnaEziakonwa and #MartinKimani step into the United Nations's top #Africa roles – Eziakonwa as Special Advisor for Africa with a development brief, Kimani as Assistant Secretary‑General advising on peace and security and responding to emerging conflicts. africa-conf.com/a-un-lifer-a...
africa-conf.com
A UN lifer and a political diplomat take top roles
, Facing his last three months as United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres has overhauled two of the UN’s top Africa jobs. First to take office was Nigerian diplomat Ahunna Eziakonwa,…
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Moses Kuria was dropped from cabinet after the #GenZ protests, his abrasive style and weak record in two ministries making him a liability. He’s now back as #Ruto’s chief attack dog and is plotting a return to elected politics next August. africa-conf.com/team-ruto-pl...
africa-conf.com
Team Ruto plots its succession
State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#Zambia’s opposition candidate #BrianMundubile surged late in the campaign, alarming the ruling party. He officially took 38% to Hichilema’s 61% – but having gone into hiding, was later arrested and charged with treason. africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#DavidNdii remains Ruto’s most forceful policy voice, pushing panda and samurai bonds over an #IMF deal. His stance has put him at odds with senior Treasury and Foreign Affairs officials. #Kenya africa-conf.com/team-ruto-pl...
africa-conf.com
Team Ruto plots its succession
State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Opposition parties that long demanded a #NationalDialogue now refuse to join the process President #FélixTshisekedi announced on 27 August, saying it is too narrow and excludes key actors. #Kinshasa africa-conf.com/opposition-demands-talks-on-their-terms
africa-conf.com
Opposition demands talks on their terms
A dispute over who should be at the table has prompted opposition leaders to reject President Tshisekedi’s proposed Dialogue
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
Allegations are mounting that the #UPND panicked during the 13 August count and stuffed ballots to secure a two‑thirds majority – a move analysts say had little effect but risks staining #Hichilema’s legitimacy. #Zambia africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
A new Local Content Bill would require foreign companies to employ 80% locally and source 60% of goods and services in‑country, with tougher rules for firms that rely on agricultural inputs. #Kenya #Trade #Ruto africa-conf.com/rutos-populi...
africa-conf.com
Ruto’s populist turn on foreign traders risks rattling investors
The crackdown on foreign small businesses, now folded into a sweeping localisation bill, tests the President’s  promise that Kenya remains open for capital
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#Mission300 has delivered 50 million new #electricity connections since 2023. It’s a strong start, but still far short of what #Africa needs as population growth and chronic power shortages continue to outpace progress. africa-conf.com/electricity-drive-confronts-financing-gap
africa-conf.com
Electricity drive confronts financing gap
Mission 300’s reported progress is good news – but it favours bankable governments rather than those whose electricity deprivation is deepest
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
#Zambia: Observers note #Hichilema was always expected to win – even without interference. The question now is whether the harsh measures around the polls were an aberration or the start of a more authoritarian era. #EEAS africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
EU observers said the vote count was running smoothly before the #ECZ ordered a six‑hour pause – and that it deteriorated sharply when counting resumed. Many in #Lusaka believe the break gave ruling‑party activists time to stuff ballot boxes. #EEAS africa-conf.com/hhs-poll-ove...
africa-conf.com
HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy
The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
President #Ruto’s sudden decree giving foreign traders 90 days to get work permits or leave has triggered panic, with Burundian and Congolese hawkers reporting intimidation and hundreds seeking refuge at their embassy. #Kenya africa-conf.com/rutos-populi...
africa-conf.com
Ruto’s populist turn on foreign traders risks rattling investors
The crackdown on foreign small businesses, now folded into a sweeping localisation bill, tests the President’s  promise that Kenya remains open for capital
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 25/09/2026
President #Ruto has built a powerful circle of #StateHouse advisors whose influence now rivals the cabinet – and many are preparing to swap their desks for campaign rallies in next August’s polls. africa-conf.com/team-ruto-pl...
africa-conf.com
Team Ruto plots its succession
State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
#Djibouti’s President Ishmaël Omar Guelleh may be the biggest winner as pressure builds on the #BabelMandeb - exploiting sharpening geopolitical rivalries in the #RedSea to hike fees for basing rents and other services. africa-conf.com/houthi-seizu...
africa-conf.com
Houthi seizure of Yemeni coast threatens new Red Sea shock for Cairo
Egypt’s battered forex earnings face a fresh squeeze as rebels tighten their grip on the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint – Djibouti braces for a refugee surge
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
While #Libya's dual leaderships reached an #UN-brokered agreement on 30 August, a parliament vote to approve it lacked a quorum, there appears no prospect of approval by the High Council of the State and Turkey is pushing a rival track. africa-conf.com/under-pressure
africa-conf.com
Under pressure, rivals agree an elite pact for unity
Dubaiba and Haftar's lieutenants have signed a deal for reunification and elections, but the High State Council won't back them
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
Two #GlobalGateway projects worth €57.8 million (US$66.5m) were unveiled at the #Africa Green Hydrogen Summit in Cape Town on 15-16 September, backing South African green #hydrogen and battery value chains with Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands as partners. africa-conf.com/europe-is-be...
africa-conf.com
Europe is betting €200 billion on Africa and economic security
Brussels launched Global Gateway as an ethical alternative to China’s lending – now its priorities are economic sustainability with a preference for European business
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
Two #GlobalGateway projects worth €57.8 million (US$66.5m) were unveiled at the #Africa Green Hydrogen Summit in Cape Town on 15-16 September, backing South African green #hydrogen and battery value chains with Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands as partners. africa-conf.com/europe-is-be...
africa-conf.com
Europe is betting €200 billion on Africa and economic security
Brussels launched Global Gateway as an ethical alternative to China’s lending – now its priorities are economic sustainability with a preference for European business
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
#MarcoRubio has accused #SouthAfrica of ‘race-based’ discrimination, announcing visa restrictions for those involved, perhaps even implementing bans of government officials. africa-conf.com/ramaphosa-sh...
africa-conf.com
Ramaphosa shrugs off Washington’s visa curbs but braces for more
US ambassador warns of ‘escalatory measures’, testing Pretoria's bet that trade ties and a British G20 presidency will outlast Trump-era hostility
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
Rival Libyan powers have signed a deal in #Tripoli setting out a path to reunification and elections within two years. Yet legal and political challenges at home and abroad threaten to derail it before its implementation. #UN africa-conf.com/under-pressure
africa-conf.com
Under pressure, rivals agree an elite pact for unity
Dubaiba and Haftar's lieutenants have signed a deal for reunification and elections, but the High State Council won't back them
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
#Uranium was added to the list of US #criticalminerals last year: that has given it impetus to support a Canadian company, Global Atomic, to gain access to one of #Niger’s premium mines. africa-conf.com/washington-a...
africa-conf.com
Washington advances ties with Niamey junta as its development bank backs $414 million uranium project
The financing for Global Atomic's Dasa mine signals a thaw with Niamey although security and transport risks cloud the project's outlook
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 22/09/2026
#Egypt is one of the biggest losers as the #Houthis squeeze the Bab el Mandeb strait. Between 2023-24 Egypt lost $7bn and declines after the fall of Mocha and Mayyun could be even greater. #Yemen africa-conf.com/houthi-seizu...
africa-conf.com
Houthi seizure of Yemeni coast threatens new Red Sea shock for Cairo
Egypt’s battered forex earnings face a fresh squeeze as rebels tighten their grip on the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint – Djibouti braces for a refugee surge
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 20/09/2026
China-Africa trade hit $348bn in 2025, driven by Chinese firms diverting exports from the US market. Rising shipments of solar technology and intermediate goods hint at re-industrialisation in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. africa-conf.com/the-scramble...
africa-conf.com
The scramble for capital
Governments and companies look to Asia and domestic finance as trade and investment fall behind the continent’s population and market growth
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 19/09/2026
China’s Belt and Road investment in Africa surged to $33.5bn in H1 2026 – two‑thirds of all global flows – even as Beijing slashes concessional lending by 85%. A sharp pivot from mega‑loans to commercially driven projects. africa-conf.com/the-scramble...
africa-conf.com
The scramble for capital
Governments and companies look to Asia and domestic finance as trade and investment fall behind the continent’s population and market growth
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 19/09/2026
MK, the Freedom Front Plus, the Patriotic Alliance, and March and March are positioning themselves for fragmented councils. Their concentrated support could prove decisive in negotiations over who governs. africa-conf.com/fragmentatio...
africa-conf.com
Fragmentation reshapes the centre
The municipal elections may end ANC hegemony without producing a new dominant party, leaving power to be contested among a wide field of rivals
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 18/09/2026
Helen Zille may lead the DA to 42% in Johannesburg, yet still fall short of the mayoralty. The city’s mayor is chosen by the council, and the DA must negotiate with smaller parties that have grown by opposing it. africa-conf.com/fragmentatio...
africa-conf.com
Fragmentation reshapes the centre
The municipal elections may end ANC hegemony without producing a new dominant party, leaving power to be contested among a wide field of rivals
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 18/09/2026
#Betterbrands, Scott Sakupwanya’s gold‑trading company, delivered US$1.5bn of #gold to the state refinery, giving him the resources to bankroll political influence and secure an uncontested parliamentary seat. #Zimbabwe africa-conf.com/mnangagwas-m...
africa-conf.com
Mnangagwa’s money men buy him time
Behind the President’s constitutional overhaul is a network of wealthy fixers whose fortunes, influence and impunity shape the political machinery
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 17/09/2026
#AlikoDangote’s upcoming IPO has taken advantage of pan-African winds: with so much African support for the listing, it may be hard for governments to act against the #DangoteGroup. #Nigeria africa-conf.com/dangotes-ref...
africa-conf.com
Dangote’s refinery goes public, and so does his ambition
A record share sale is meant to crown Africa’s most audacious industrialist. It may also expose how much his empire depends on political favour
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 17/09/2026
#KudakwasheTagwirei, a businessman with fuel, mining and banking interests, became the President’s key financier. His support for the seven‑year term change earned him a Senate seat and deepened his influence over the state. africa-conf.com/mnangagwas-m...
africa-conf.com
Mnangagwa’s money men buy him time
Behind the President’s constitutional overhaul is a network of wealthy fixers whose fortunes, influence and impunity shape the political machinery
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 16/09/2026
Sudanese Armed Forces (#SAF) officials have denied reports that they developed chemical weapons, insisting that they had offered the US access for an inspection of the suspected sites. #Sudan africa-conf.com/gulf-state-r...
africa-conf.com
Gulf State rivalries are locking the region into permanent conflict
Both armies are starving civilians while shipping gold to Dubai and Cairo, as the World Food Programme warns it will run out of money within weeks
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 16/09/2026
Debt owed on #UEMOA’s CFA-denominated regional market won’t be part of #Senegal’s treatment plan, as the #IMF says confidence in a market underpinning financing for all eight member states must be protected. africa-conf.com/fayes-imf-ga...
africa-conf.com
Faye's IMF gamble hits a debt-treatment wall
Diba's refusal to call the deal a 'restructuring' is spooking creditors just as the divided parliament prepares to vote on the contested plan
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 15/09/2026
Siteny #Randrianasoloniako first came in contact with Vladimir #Putin’s circle as Vice President of the International Judo Federation. Now he acts as a bridge between the country and #Madagascar’s junta. africa-conf.com/madagascars-...
africa-conf.com
Madagascar’s Russian connection
, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko has emerged as a key intermediary between Madagascar and Russia as the country’s military-backed authorities reshape their political and foreign alliances. President of…
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 15/09/2026
#RigathiGachagua and #EdwinSifuna are touring the US to rally diaspora funding as they bid to unseat President Ruto. Gachagua’s 80‑event tour and his offer to run as Sifuna’s deputy highlight a tightening alliance as the DCP seeks KSh5bn to compete. africa-conf.com/pointers
africa-conf.com
Pointers
, Opposition leaders Rigathi Gachagua and Edwin Sifuna are touring the United States to court diaspora support and funding for their bid to unseat President William Ruto next August.
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 15/09/2026
Reports suggest that there is a secret ceasefire agreement with a major #BokoHaram faction - with suggestions that the group could agree to cut the number of kidnappings of schoolchildren. #Nigeria africa-conf.com/tinubu-shuff...
africa-conf.com
Tinubu shuffles the generals as Boko Haram talks muddy the war plan
Major General Ajose inherits Operation Hadin Kai amid reports of a clandestine truce with a Boko Haram faction
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 10/09/2026
For African governments, UN tax talks are about more than technical rules. They are about raising revenue for debt service, climate adaptation and public spending without taking on deeper #debt. #Africa #ClimateFinance africa-conf.com/african-glob...
africa-conf.com
African negotiators claim ground in global tax battle
New York talks move to line-by-line drafting but leave the central contest over taxing rights and the OECD’s authority unresolved
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 09/09/2026
A passport contract signed under President Joseph Kabila is now at the centre of a major criminal case in Belgium. Charges referred include alleged bribery, money laundering and tax fraud. The defendants deny wrongdoing. #DRC #Semlex africa-conf.com/semlex-on-tr...
africa-conf.com
Semlex on trial over Kinshasa passport contracts
Civil claimants say US$60 million was diverted from Congolese passport fees in case that tests Belgium’s enforcement of foreign-bribery laws
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 09/09/2026
#Rabat's claim of sovereignty over #Ceuta and #Melilla is backed by some lawmakers close to President Donald Trump - but Spanish moves to bring the two exclaves further into the #EU’s orbit is making change tricky. africa-conf.com/sanchez-seek...
africa-conf.com
Sánchez seeks stronger EU role in Ceuta after mass crossing
Madrid’s push for Frontex and greater EU integration of the North African enclaves could deepen the dispute with Morocco
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Africa Confidential @africa-confidential.com · 08/09/2026
#Spain: Pedro Sánchez is looking to bring #Ceuta and #Melilla into the EU’s Customs Union by giving them the status of overseas territories - which could further inflame fraught relations with #Morocco. africa-conf.com/sanchez-seek...
africa-conf.com
Sánchez seeks stronger EU role in Ceuta after mass crossing
Madrid’s push for Frontex and greater EU integration of the North African enclaves could deepen the dispute with Morocco
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