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AFP Analytics

@afpanalytics.bsky.social
515 followers 138 following 726 posts

Hockey analytics consulting firm providing innovative insight to fans, agents, & teams. Focus on player valuation. Weekly episodes of the MaxTermPod. Still hanging around X. @kylestich.bsky.social @jamesfinch.bsky.social Linktree: t.co/u2eaEq14HM

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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The last remaining @maxtermpod.bsky.social divisional preview episode is out on Youtube and top podcast platforms. We wrap the series with the Atlantic division, discussing O/U team point totals, additions and subtractions, and fantasy sleeper! #NHL youtu.be/zPvnCW4leLE
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26-27 Atlantic Division Preview
YouTube video by AFP Analytics
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Sam Steel and the Dallas Stars have agreed to a contract extension. Steel has developed into a solid two way forward in the bottom six for Dallas. This season, there is potential opportunity for him to take on an increased role in the top 6! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Tim Washe and the Anaheim Ducks agreed to a contract extension. A 4th line faceoff specialist, Washe was only projected at 1x$1.5M. The added term and UFA years bought makes the actual $2.25M AAV rather reasonable. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🚨 New @maxtermpod.bsky.social is out! We review the Metro division, including our opinions on O/U's and fantasy sleepers! Find it on YouTube (and all major pod platforms), give it a like and subscribe! #NHL youtu.be/tctBne59LTo?...
youtu.be
26-27 Metropolitan Division Preview
YouTube video by AFP Analytics
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Cutter Gauthier and the Anaheim Ducks have agreed to a contract. While not the 8 year max term, @pierrevlebrun.bsky.social mentioned earlier that this deal potentially would include a front loaded structure that would not be allowed after tonight. That soft deadline likely helped get this done! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Justin Sourdif and the Washington Capitals sneak in here and get a #MaxTerm 8 year deal done. Sourdif had a very strong year this season and will look to build on it! Another step in production and this could end up VERY team friendly! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Alex Newhook, a third line forward, signed an extension with the Montreal Canadiens! He shined in the playoffs for Montreal. He'll look to take that momentum into the 26-27 season. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Yeah, that's about right! Xhekaj needed a new deal with the Montreal Canadiens for this season and now he has it. The bottom pair defenseman absolutely brings the physicality! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
EXTENSION IMPACT🚨 After extending Ostlund, the #Sabres should have north of $30M (per CapWages) next year. Skinner buyout decreases 4M, Zucker's 4.75M & some other smaller deals coming off the books too. Quinn, Kulich, Crevier are pending RFAs! Running it back is affordable #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
EXTENSION IMPACT🚨 Even with the Batherson deal, it looks like the #Senators should have plenty of space to work with ($30M-$31M per CapWages). Even if they were to keep all pending free agents (very unlikley), they'd still have somewhere in the $5M-$7M range to work with! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
It was treating the extensions as if they were starting this year, calculating with $104M cap. It is now fixed and actual extensions signed will have the cap hit percentage based off the expected $113.5M cap for the 27-28 season. (2/2)
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We have fixed a bug on our website and our contract graphics that was specifically impacting the way the cap hit percentage was being calculated for the actual signed extensions. (1/2)
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Ryan Leonard & the Washington Capitals have agreed to a contract extension! This deal is a projection in itself of what Leonard is expected to be. He has top 6 scoring potential but will need to take another step or two from last season to provide the value expected from this deal. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Gonna be some toast today. Which can be elite if perfected
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Not even. Just coffee 😔
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Very good all around player. The team that seems to want more scoring locks in one of their current elite scorers. Good piece of business. AAV right there with Kempe and Tuch. No qualms.
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I (James) am now EXTRA hungry
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Drake Batherson & the Ottawa Senators sneak in a 8yr #MaxTerm contract extension! Originally projected at 6yr/~9.8 AAV, not a shock (especially with the market shift this offseason) to see him slot in right above Kempe and Tuch. The elite scoring winger stays in Ottawa long term! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Noah Ostlund and the Buffalo Sabres have agreed to a long term extension! We only had a ST projection as a LT deal based on comps was unlikely. $6.6M likely ends up being a long term steal for Buffalo in this new cap environment! Ostlund had solid impacts in his first #NHL year!
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
🚨 A new @maxtermpod.bsky.social is live! Episode 2 of our divisional preview series is on the central division! Based off O/U point totals, how well do we think each team will do? We discuss additions, subtractions & fantasy sleepers! Available on all major platforms! #NHL youtu.be/x_9uzEXaYj8?...
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26-27 Central Division Preview
YouTube video by AFP Analytics
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
John Klingberg has officially retired. Primarily known for his time with the Dallas Stars , he also spent time in the #NHL with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers & San Jose Sharks. Known as a offensive defenseman, his best season was in 17-18 with DAL, producing a 8-59-67 line.
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Curious to see if he can take another step forward in production. If he does, this deal could become very team friendly rather quickly. This extension kicks in during the 27-28 season, as he is currently on the last year of his ELC.
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Fraser Minten & the Boston Bruins have agreed to a long term extension! We only had a short term projection (a mistake on our part). That said, we like this deal for the Bruins. Minten ultimately played 2nd line minutes at 5v5 with promising results in his first full #NHL season.
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
They really need Byfield to take a step and be a 1st line C
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
A new @maxtermpod.bsky.social is live! We begin our season preview series with the pacific division! Based off O/U point totals, how well do we think each team will do? We discuss additions, subtractions & fantasy sleepers! Available on all major platforms! #NHL youtu.be/muxGpFx03vA?...
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26-27 Pacific Division Preview
YouTube video by AFP Analytics
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Eeli Tolvanen to the New York Rangers! A late offseason signing, it isn't a shock to see him come in well under projection. Even though his production was standard, his skills this past season were down, per our #MaxStat. Could be a solid rebound candidate for #NYR. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
After a brief hiatus, we are back with a new @maxtermpod.bsky.social! What is Left for the 2026 Offseason? We discuss RFAs and UFAs needing new deals, as well as the rather quiet trade market. Available wherever you get your podcasts. Video on YouTube! #NHL youtu.be/ZDWSFbFsJ08
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What is Left for the 2026 Offseason?
YouTube video by AFP Analytics
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Possibly. Difference there is age, status, & where they are in their careers. Koivunen is RFA entering his age 23 season & just now getting a full time role. Engvall (27 at signing) and Mayfield (30 at signing) were older & UFA. It was also thought that the term on those deals kept AAV down.
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Pretty much
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Ville Koivunen and the Pittsburgh Penguins have agreed to a long term contract. The deal is a shock at first, but they have the cap space now to potentially try and profit on his offensive potential. Worst case, $4M is quickly becoming bottom six, even 4th line money. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
It’s a contract that isn’t common but in the current cap environment, PIT is likely ok at that AAV because that is quickly turning into bottom six money (might be how they view his floor). Not great for the players side long term, especially if he reaches more of his scoring, top-9 potential.
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
We haven’t, but it’s an interesting idea
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Graf, a top-9 winger for the San Jose Sharks, certainly arrived in his first full season (46 points). That seems to have led to a very nice short term deal, even considering he was a 10.2(c) free agent. He'll be RFA w/ 1 year until free agency at the end of this deal! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Tommy Novak & the Pittsburgh Penguins have agreed to a contract extension. A solid middle six forward who has split time between center and wing, Novak can provide secondary scoring. This deal comes in a little low considering his role/ability. Great work Dubas & team. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The San Jose Sharks & Macklin Celebrini have agreed to an extension that will kick in for the 27-28 season. He was THE player to watch out for to keep pushing north beyond the Carlsson $18M AAV. This deal is in a reasonable spot considering the market shift this offseason. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
🚨 A new @MaxTermPod is live! We recap a busy week in the #NHL and provide some in-sight into upcoming arbitration cases. Could Kane & Hellebuyck end up in Buffalo? What are the #NYR up to? How might Jamie Drysdale's arbitration hearing go? Available on all major platforms! youtu.be/_-Ph9lDpL6E?...
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2026 Free Agency, Offer Sheets, and a New Cap Culture
James and Kyle reflect on July 1st and what has followed. Where did we see some interesting trends? Did certain teams stand out? Thoughts on the Hayton and Carlsson offer sheets, a shifting cap…
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Leo Carlsson is taking his talents back to... Long Beach? The Anaheim Ducks have matched the Philadelphia Flyers offer sheet. $18M is much higher than projected, and seemingly much more than Anaheim expected. Gauthier needs a new deal too! All of a sudden, cap is tight for the Ducks! #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
🚨 A new @MaxTermPod.bsky.social is live! 2026 Free Agency, Offer Sheets & a New Cap Culture! We reflect on July 1st. Where did we see some interesting trends? Thoughts on the Hayton & Carlsson offer sheets, a shifting cap culture, & more! Available on all major platforms! #NHL youtu.be/tWZFR2Jt2vw
youtu.be
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
New episode of the @maxtermpod.bsky.social has been released! We recap draft week, discussing the signings and trades that have taken place so far. Check it out on Youtube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and more! #NHL youtu.be/fZ-ZQxiBX68?...
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2026 Draft Week Recap
YouTube video by AFP Analytics
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
The Troy Stecher AAV is $1.35M on a 2 year deal. Fair contract for both sides. Historically, Stecher is a under the radar defensive defenseman. Should help as bottom pair or extra defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
The Florida Panthers have traded the UFA rights of A.J. Greer to the Anaheim Ducks. Greer had a career year this past season, scoring 17 goals (32pts) and producing some solid skill metrics per our #MaxStat. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
The Anaheim Ducks have traded the UFA rights of defenseman Radko Gudas to the Florida Panthers. If the two sides come to a deal, this would be Gudas' second stint with the team (20-21 through 22-23). #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
50% will be retained by Montreal, giving each team a $3.25M Gallagher cap hit for the 26-27 season.
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Brendan Gallagher is headed from the Montreal Canadiens to the Vancouver Canucks. Gallagher fell out of the lineup with Montreal and will now look to reestablish his game and bring a veteran presence to Vancouver. He is technically extension eligible (seems unlikely at this time). #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
The Nashville Predators have acquired Nils Hoglander from the Vancouver Canucks for a 3rd round pick. Hoglander is a buy low candidate for Nashville. The hope is he rebounds to his 2023-2024 form. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Per Pierre LeBrun, the AAV on the new 6 year Beck Malenstyn contract with the Buffalo Sabres is $2.9167M (within reason vs projection). This is in line with a recent 4th line comp from this offseason (C Michael McCarron). At this AAV, shouldn't be worried about that term. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Mason McTavish, traded from the Anaheim Ducks to the St Louis Blues, is locked in for 5 more seasons at $7M AAV. He is a young center who can provide solid offensive play. The concerns in his game revolve around poor defensive play and lack of speed. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
After one season in Utah, the Utah Mammoth decided to move JJ Peterka to the Boston Bruins for two first round picks. The Bruins acquire a speedy, scoring winger under contract for 4 more seasons at $7.7M AAV. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
The Toronto Maple Leafs have traded Brandon Carlo to the St. Louis Blues for two 3rd round picks. Ultimately, Carlo was not a good fit in TOR. He'll look to find his defensive game again in St. Louis with a familiar head coach in Jim Montgomery. Extension eligible. #NHL
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AFP Analytics @afpanalytics.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Burakovsky, traded from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for the OTT 2027 6th round pick, is top 9 winger who is eligible for an extension (although unlikely). OTT is likely still looking to add up front. #NHL
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