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Adil Sayeed

@adilasayeed.bsky.social

38 followers 17 following 317 posts

Public policy consultant by day. Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) nerd by night who believes "it's the economic vibes, stupid" that explains most presidential elections. economystupid.substack.com

Posts Replies Media

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

As Dean Baker says, economic data looked good under Biden save for high inflation in 2022, which then came down over next 2 years. Trump lies about Biden's record. Trump was lucky to inherit lowest misery index for any incoming president since 1953. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...

economystupid.substack.com

Lucky Trump? Best economy for new president in 70 years

Biden hands Trump best misery index for new POTUS since 1953. But, vibes still low.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Good column. There's method to Trump's $5,000 dividend madness. It's a bit of a "Hail Mary pass", but his goal is to turn out the hard-to-reach voters who backed him in 2024. Economist/YouGov poll shows "less likely" voters back Trump dividend by 2.5 to 1. economystupid.substack.com/p/gas-prices...

economystupid.substack.com

Gas prices driving Republicans down to defeat

Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise not reversing Republican slide. Americans least interested in politics want checks, but no sign they will turn out to vote in mid-terms.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Good article. Trump's $5,000 dividend is aimed at turning out "low-trust, politically disengaged voters". Economist/YouGov poll shows "less likely" voters back Trump dividend by 2.5 to 1. economystupid.substack.com/p/gas-prices...

economystupid.substack.com

Gas prices driving Republicans down to defeat

Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise not reversing Republican slide. Americans least interested in politics want checks, but no sign they will turn out to vote in mid-terms.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I agree with Professor Krugman but for 1 nagging concern. Republicans are way behind in polls of likely voters, but ahead with less likely voters. Trump won in 2024 partly with high turn-out from irregular voters. Trump ad features "bro" boss Dana White. economystupid.substack.com/p/gas-prices...

economystupid.substack.com

Gas prices driving Republicans down to defeat

Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise not reversing Republican slide. Americans least interested in politics want checks, but no sign they will turn out to vote in mid-terms.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

RFK Jr. in Jan. 2025: "It's not unusual ... measles every year" It is unusual to say “go wild on health”. It is unusual to put a crank in charge. It is unusual for Health boss not to care. economystupid.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-its...

economystupid.substack.com

RFK Jr.: "It's not unusual ... measles every year"

Wrong, Mr. Health Secretary. After 2 months, 2025 US cases > half in all of 2024.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Agreed that "Now is a terrible time for Kennedy to return to public anti-vaccine advocacy .. in the midst of a deadly measles outbreak" It is unusual to say “go wild on health” It is unusual to put a crank in charge It is unusual for Health boss not to care economystupid.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-its...

economystupid.substack.com

RFK Jr.: "It's not unusual ... measles every year"

Wrong, Mr. Health Secretary. After 2 months, 2025 US cases > half in all of 2024.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Good point that Biden "left an economy which ... the Economist [magazine] called ... the envy of the world". Trump inherited lowest misery index = 7.0 = 3.0% inflation + 4.0% unemployment for any incoming president since 1953. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...

economystupid.substack.com

Lucky Trump? Best economy for new president in 70 years

Biden hands Trump best misery index for new POTUS since 1953. But, vibes still low.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Sargent on Trump, 2026: "advisors .. telling him that he has .. won this conflict. I don’t think he actually listens to .. people who are saying the contrary". Plutarch on Tigranes, 69 BC: "he sat in ignorance .. giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Inflation = 3.4% now v. 2.4% in February before Trump started war. Republican consumer sentiment down -24% since February more than Democratic or independent economic vibes. National average gas price/gallon = $4.33 today v. $2.98 Feb. 28 all thanx to Trump economystupid.substack.com/p/even-foxco...

economystupid.substack.com

Even Fox.com voters say NO to Trump’s $5,000

64% against Trump’s $5,000 dividend in online poll. Next Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) reading on Sept. 25 will measure impact on vibes of Trump’s $5,000 promise.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Jared and Steve's excellent adventure. Kushner and Witkoff family "businesses" raking in millions from their "diplomacy" while American people get $4.33/gallon gas and promise of $5,000 checks if they re-elect Republican Congress. economystupid.substack.com/p/even-foxco...

economystupid.substack.com

Even Fox.com voters say NO to Trump’s $5,000

64% against Trump’s $5,000 dividend in online poll. Next Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) reading on Sept. 25 will measure impact on vibes of Trump’s $5,000 promise.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

To borrow the Treasury Secretary's own anti-Canada metaphor, the long-term bond market is acting like a German shepherd who's had enough of a "little yippy dog" named Scott Bessent.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Check out The Velcro Staircase. Stevie B has his finger on the pulse of popular culture. I'm showing my age by calling him the Bo Jackson of culture. Stevie B knows music. Stevie B knows films. Stevie B knows podcasts. canadiansteve.substack.com?r=gjsh5&utm_...

canadiansteve.substack.com

The Velcro Staircase | Stevie B | Substack

Your New Music Review. Click to read The Velcro Staircase, by Stevie B, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Agreed that Trump "finally underestimated his audience". At first, I thought he might be crazy like a fox. But, even in Fox News' Republican-heavy online poll, 64% vote against President Trump’s $5,000 dividend plan. economystupid.substack.com/p/even-foxco...

economystupid.substack.com

Even Fox.com voters say NO to Trump’s $5,000

64% against Trump’s $5,000 dividend in online poll. Next Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) reading on Sept. 25 will measure impact on vibes of Trump’s $5,000 promise.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

At first, I thought President Trump might be crazy like a fox. But, even in Fox News' Republican-heavy online poll, 64% vote against President Trump’s $5,000 dividend plan. economystupid.substack.com/p/even-foxco...

economystupid.substack.com

Even Fox.com voters say NO to Trump’s $5,000

64% against Trump’s $5,000 dividend in online poll. Next Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) reading on Sept. 25 will measure impact on vibes of Trump’s $5,000 promise.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

At first, I thought President Trump might be crazy like a fox. But, even in Fox News' Republican-heavy online poll, 64% vote against President Trump’s $5,000 dividend plan. economystupid.substack.com/p/even-foxco...

economystupid.substack.com

Even Fox.com voters say NO to Trump’s $5,000

64% against Trump’s $5,000 dividend in online poll. Next Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) reading on Sept. 25 will measure impact on vibes of Trump’s $5,000 promise.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Good article. True that "2024 presidential election hinged on ... expectation ... that Trump ... would fix ... Biden’s economy. As President, Trump should have left economy and Mideast alone and just taken credit for inflation already trending down. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...

economystupid.substack.com

Lucky Trump? Best economy for new president in 70 years

Biden hands Trump best misery index for new POTUS since 1953. But, vibes still low.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

One good 1980s legacy: inflation fell from 13.9% in January 1980 to 3.7% 3 years later and finished decade at 4.6% in December 1989. Reagan got the credit, but the man responsible, Fed Chair Volcker, was appointed by Democratic president Carter. economystupid.substack.com/p/fed-a-bit-...

economystupid.substack.com

Fed a bit player until Carter picked Volcker

Hinge moment in US economic history would not have occurred without Jimmy Carter.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

E.g. of Trump's "truth" (Aug. 21): “we have tremendous [economic] growth. We've never had growth like we have right now.” Real GDP growth under Biden: 2022 = 2.5%, 2023 = 2.9%, 2024 = 2.8%; under Trump: 2025 = 2.1%, 2026 = 1.8% (annualized rate to date). economystupid.substack.com/p/6-months-o...

economystupid.substack.com

6 months of Trump’s war: Economic vibes -10%

Republicans not OK with $4 gas. Republican Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) down -16% since Trump attacked Iran. Independent vibes down -6%. Democrats down -4%.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Agreed that "Trump Voters Are Finally Starting to Sour on Him". Republicans' consumer sentiment down -16% over last 6 months since gas prices started climbing after Trump attacked Iran. economystupid.substack.com/p/6-months-o...

economystupid.substack.com

6 months of Trump’s war: Economic vibes -10%

Republicans not OK with $4 gas. Republican Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) down -16% since Trump attacked Iran. Independent vibes down -6%. Democrats down -4%.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Six months after Trump attacked Iran, $4 gas is eroding even Republicans’ faith in Trump’s economy. Republican economic vibes (consumer sentiment) down -16% since February. economystupid.substack.com/p/6-months-o...

economystupid.substack.com

6 months of Trump’s war: Economic vibes -10%

Republicans not OK with $4 gas. Republican Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) down -16% since Trump attacked Iran. Independent vibes down -6%. Democrats down -4%.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Krugman on Trump, 2026: "nobody wants to tell the leader bad news". Plutarch on King Tigranes, 69 BC: "no one ... would tell him anything, and so he sat in ignorance while the fires of war were already blazing .. giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Casselman always good. 1 quibble: “during Mr. Biden’s final 2 years in office … measures of consumer sentiment barely recovered”. Michigan index rose from 50 in June 2022 to 79 by end-2023, but stalled at that level in 2024. There was vibecovery, but weak. economystupid.substack.com/p/kyla-scanl...

economystupid.substack.com

Kyla Scanlon’s smart: The vibecession and the election

Will voters’ bad vibes elect Trump? Scanlon’s vibecession concept by the numbers.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Good article, as always. 1 quibble “during Mr. Biden’s final 2 years in office … measures of consumer sentiment barely recovered”. Michigan index rose from 50 in June 2022 to 79 by end-2023, but stalled at that level in 2024. There was vibecovery but weak economystupid.substack.com/p/kyla-scanl...

economystupid.substack.com

Kyla Scanlon’s smart: The vibecession and the election

Will voters’ bad vibes elect Trump? Scanlon’s vibecession concept by the numbers.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Michigan Surveys Director Joanne Hsu: "Decreases in sentiment were seen across the political spectrum, with Republicans exhibiting the strongest ... decline in August. Sentiment among Republicans is now 19% below readings just prior to the Iran conflict" economystupid.substack.com/p/republican...

economystupid.substack.com

Republican economic vibes crash

Republicans’ Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) down -11% since July and down -19% since Trump attacked Iran in February and sent gasoline prices higher.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

As a politician, Tafoya is a good sportscaster. Her solution to Trump's gasoline price crisis: “take one less trip to Starbucks, and … gas goes a little further”. Unforced fumble by Tafoya in a friendly interview on right-wing talk radio. economystupid.substack.com/p/us-gas-pri...

economystupid.substack.com

US gas prices +33%. Economic vibes -6%.

Solution?! “take one less trip to Starbucks, and … gas goes a little further”

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Tafoya's solution to Trump's gasoline price crisis: “take one less trip to Starbucks, and … gas goes a little further”. Unforced fumble by Tafoya in a friendly interview on right-wing talk radio. As a politician, she's a good sportscaster. economystupid.substack.com/p/us-gas-pri...

economystupid.substack.com

US gas prices +33%. Economic vibes -6%.

Solution?! “take one less trip to Starbucks, and … gas goes a little further”

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Michelle Tafoya's solution to Trump's gasoline price crisis: “take one less trip to Starbucks, and … gas goes a little further”. Unforced fumble by Tafoya in a friendly interview on right-wing talk radio. As a politician, she's a good sportscaster. economystupid.substack.com/p/us-gas-pri...

economystupid.substack.com

US gas prices +33%. Economic vibes -6%.

Solution?! “take one less trip to Starbucks, and … gas goes a little further”

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

“No one wants to tell the president that his deportation claims have no clothes.” Plutarch’s 2000-year-old description of Tigranes fits Trump: “no one … would tell him anything, and so he sat in ignorance … giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Smaller gap between household labor force (HLFS) and payroll surveys in latest report: -87,000 monthly job loss in HLFS vs. -23,000 payroll jobs. 3-month avg.: HLFS jobs down -148,000/month vs. payroll jobs up +20,000. Surveys different all year. If this persists, Bureau of Labor Stats must explain.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Can we trust Index of Consumer Sentiment? Only if “handled with care”. Unfortunately, continuing controversy lends credibility to Trump economist Hassett’s charge that “ICS …worthless”, even though Hassett identifies wrong reason for ICS problems. economystupid.substack.com/p/can-we-tru...

economystupid.substack.com

Can we trust Index of Consumer Sentiment?

Only if “handled with care”. Continuing controversy lends credibility to Trump economist Hassett’s charge that “ICS … worthless”.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

"After he finished his speech,.. senior members of his administration and the intelligence community burst into applause." Trump is just like King Tigranes in Plutarch's Lives: "he sat in ignorance ... giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Good article. Stephen Miller's comments on CNN in Jan. similar to both Hitler, 1926-11-22 “through all the centuries ... force and power are the determining factors…Only force rules. Force is the first law." And Stalin, 1935: "The Pope? How many [military] divisions has he got?"

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Really good interview. Plutarch captured Trump’s essence 2000 years ago with his summation of Rome’s enemy King Tigranes of Armenia: “he sat in ignorance … giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Good article. You may have seen that Claudia Sahm made similar points, but not in such detail. Agreed that UMichigan Surveys of Consumers needs to address these problems. If not, they risk making Kevin Hassett look good when he called ICS "worthless". stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/consumer-s...

stayathomemacro.substack.com

Consumer Sentiment Isn't Politics, but Politics Is Reshaping It

A time of disruption is a time when expectations can play an outsized role in shaping the economy’s path.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Trump: “I did not want to be … Hoover”. No Hoover depression in sight, but Trump following Biden’s vibecession path to loss for incumbent party in 2028. Difficult to imagine Trump and his team changing course. economystupid.substack.com/p/trump-im-t...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump: “I’m tired of winning and winning”

President averts, for now, maybe, “economic catastrophe … I did not want to be … Hoover”. No Hoover depression in sight, but Trump following Biden’s vibecession path.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Biden economic record good. Inherited misery index = 7.8 2021-1, handed 7.0 = 3.0% inflation + 4.0% unemployment to Trump 2025-1, lowest misery index left by outgoing prez since 1953. In Trump’s golden age, May 2026 misery = 8.5 = 4.2% inflation + 4.3% U. economystupid.substack.com/p/lucky-trum...

economystupid.substack.com

Lucky Trump? Best economy for new president in 70 years

Biden hands Trump best misery index for new POTUS since 1953. But, vibes still low.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

It's a low bar, but Matsumoto seems like a big step up from Trump's 1st choice to head BLS -- Dr. EJ Antoni, Chief Economist at Heritage Foundation. economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bls...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump's BLS nominee EJ Antoni doomed

Ghost of Republican Party past will bury Antoni over post making fun of McCain dying

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Claudia Sahm warns that Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) must be "handled with care", but is still relevant despite Trump economist Kevin Hassett dissing ICS as "worthless". ICS up this month, but US still in vibecession with ICS down -24% since Jan. 2025. economystupid.substack.com/p/vibes-stil...

economystupid.substack.com

Vibes still low, but not as low as Index shows

Trump economist Hassett is right for wrong reason saying Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is wrong. Claudia Sahm diagnoses what’s gone wrong with ICS.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Claudia Sahm warns that Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) must be handled with care, but is still relevant despite Trump economist Kevin Hassett dissing ICS as "worthless". economystupid.substack.com/p/vibes-stil...

economystupid.substack.com

Vibes still low, but not as low as Index shows

Trump economist Hassett is right for wrong reason saying Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is wrong. Claudia Sahm diagnoses what’s gone wrong with ICS.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Household survey employment +149,000 in May -- similar to establishment survey. But, household employment down -141k since Feb. with labor force down -405k.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Household survey employment +149,000 in May -- similar to establishment survey. But, household employment down -141k since Feb. with labor force down -405k.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Yes, thanks. Will correct

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

Phillips O’Brien’s source says Trump Sr. will pass over Vance to tip nomination to Donald Jr. Bezos will boost Junior Donald’s profile with amazon primevideo show. No Republican could be elected president in 2028 if voters’ economic vibes stay low. economystupid.substack.com/p/economy-to...

economystupid.substack.com

Economy to elect President Donald Trump Jr.?!

Good news, bad news day for Junior Donald's prospects. Jobs up, gas price down. But, economic vibes still sinking. Bad inflation news coming next week.

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Plutarch’s description of King Tigranes of ancient Armenia fits Trump: “he sat in ignorance while the fires of war were already blazing around him, giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Operation Epic Fail is more accurate. Where was Steven Cheung and the White House communications team when Trump came up with the easily mocked name Epic Fury? economystupid.substack.com/p/epic-fail-...

economystupid.substack.com

Epic fail: Trump’s war and the US economy

Bigliest jump in inflation in 5 years. Consumer vibes down another -7%.

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Strong opening quoting Stephen Miller, 2026: “we live in ... the real world ... governed by strength, force, power. These are the iron laws of the world”. Eerie echo of Hitler 1926: “through all the centuries…force and power are the determining factors…Only force rules. Force is the first law”

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Klein opens strong by quoting Stephen Miller, 2026: “we live in ... the real world ... governed by strength, force, power. These are the iron laws of the world”. Eerie echo Hitler 1926: “through all the centuries…force and power are the determining factors…Only force rules. Force is the first law”

globalsecurity.org

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Plutarch’s description of King Tigranes of Armenia fits Trump: “he sat in ignorance while the fires of war were already blazing around him, giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Plutarch’s description of King Tigranes of Armenia fits Trump: “he sat in ignorance while the fires of war were already blazing around him, giving ear only to those who flattered him.” economystupid.substack.com/p/trumps-bs-...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump’s BS about the BLS Commissioner

President’s case for firing Labor Statistics Commissioner McEntarfer easily debunked

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Adil Sayeed @adilasayeed.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

Good column about economic vibes. To my mind, all vibe episodes this decade consistent with economic data except 2025 vibecession. See longer comment on Atlantic discussion page about Lowrey article. economystupid.substack.com/p/trump-plun...

economystupid.substack.com

Trump plunges US into deeper vibecession

Even Republicans’ consumer sentiment slipping. When will vibes hit bottom?

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