Reposted by Adam HowesSam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · 30/06/2026Great to see {epidist} and so @paulbuerkner.com {brms} and @mc-stan.org getting used as part of the reporting of the clinical characteristics of the Bundibugyo Virus outbreak in the DRC. 153
Reposted by Adam HowesActive Site @activesite.bio · 19/02/2026We ran a randomized controlled trial to see if LLMs can help novices perform molecular biology in a wet-lab. The results: LLMs may help in some aspects, but we found no significant increase at the core tasks end-to-end. That's lower than what experts predicted. Our findings 🧵 1225
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 11/12/2025I think doing this genre of modelling work could be really valuable. After my PhD I applied for a job with GiveWell because I was excited about this (but didn't make it past their first round) 110
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 11/12/2025My POV is that scientific best practises on modelling are worth adhering to. And that it'd be possible to do the types of sensitivity and assumption checking analysis GiveWell that values more effectively using best practise statistical methods (e.g. Bayesian workflow) 130
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 11/12/2025There has been some work aimed to help spreadsheet users model uncertainty e.g. Tom Adamczewski wrote carlo.app with this in mindcarlo.appCarlo — Analyze uncertainty with Google Sheets / OneDriveUse probabilistic simulations to quantify risk and uncertainty. Built for Google Sheets and OneDrive. Works without any changes to formulas — no lock-in or compatibility problems. Collaborate in real ... 220
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 11/12/2025My understanding of this is: * The domain is characterised by many difficult decisions about assumptions * GiveWell staff and leadership feel more comfortable working and communicating using spreadsheets 120
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 11/12/2025GiveWell have supported development of Bayesian software, though in practise I don't think they are using it very much: www.givewell.org/research/inc... github.com/wwiecek/baggr 130
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 11/12/2025Noah Haber wrote a piece for their "change our mind" contest about it (and won). But I'm not sure it changed practise: www.metacausal.com/givewells-un...metacausal.comGiveWell’s Uncertainty ProblemNoah A. Haber noahhaber@gmail.comORCiD: 0000-0002-5672-1769 Links:Code and data repositoryModified model sheet for PSA demoWeb app: Two programs with uncertaintyWeb app: Conceptual demonstrati… 110
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 11/12/2025I've also looked into this and reached the a similar conclusion. Here are some additional links/thoughts: 111
Adam Howes @adamhowes.bsky.social · 26/11/2025I'd like to see AGHQ in lme4/glmmTB! This is a good opportunity to have impact across statistical theory/methods/application (with two great mentors). 120
