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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 14h

The real question is not how #Germany can make labor cheaper, but how it can generate sufficient domestic demand, investment and productivity to sustain prosperity without exporting its demand shortfall to its neighbors.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 14h

Cutting labor costs again could further weaken household purchasing power, put pressure on #Germany's European partners to follow suit, and undermine demand across the #euro area.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 14h

#Germany 's problem is not necessarily that it pays its workers too much. Its problem is that, for too long, it has relied on wage restraint and export surpluses while domestic demand and investment remained too weak, chart Heiner Flassbeck

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 14h

#Germany has an enormous current account surplus. This means, by definition, that it has been living below its means for years. So, there is no problem with labor costs, not at all, chart @eurostat ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 14h

Bettina Orlopp #Commerzbank CEO complains about high labor costs in Germany, which, with all due respect, is a blatant lie - live interview @lisaabramowicz1 @BloombergTV

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

#Germany 's persistent external surplus and relative price competitiveness should be analysed together - #wage growth persistently below the level consistent with the common inflation objective, after accounting for productivity growth, can restrain domestic D and contribute to lower relative costs.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

(note to self) (1) #Germany has violated the #ECB ’s inflation target by falling below the target level. (2) Germany has also violated the #German Stability Act (the goal of external economic balance),chart

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

#France #macroeconomic imbalances are relational. A #deficit cannot be understood in isolation from the saving, investment and external balances of the other sectors and countries, chart (AI-powered) sectoral financial balances.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

The next question I would watch is whether the rise in Treasury yields is driven primarily by higher expected real rates, inflation compensation, or a rising term premium.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

.... strong demand for Govt bonds is not evidence that yields must fall; it is evidence of investors' willingness to hold those bonds at the prices currently available.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

But there is a deeper point: investors buying Treasuries b/c yields are high does not prove that yields have peaked. Their purchases may cushion the market against further losses, while inflation risks, expected #Fed policy, the term premium and UST supply continue to exert upward pressure.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

The FT report describes a market that is repricing Treasury securities until their yields become attractive enough to draw in new buyers. That is a normal market-clearing process, not a contradiction.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

In fact, the #FT report describes a market in which higher yields are beginning to attract buyers after a substantial repricing.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 15h

The key is to distinguish the demand for UST at a given price from the demand for UST at the new, lower price. There is no contradiction b/w strong investor demand and rising yields.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

Anxiety about a "China shock 2.0" has rumbled all year in Europe, as #Beijing 's trade standoff with Washington has stoked fears that European markets will be flooded with rerouted #Chinese goods, chart @reutersmiked.bsky.social

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

Europe is getting the #yuan adjustment it wanted, though via an unwelcome route. French debt tensions have pushed the single currency to 3 ½ y lows against #China 's offshore yuan, chart @reutersmiked.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

#China 's trade surplus reached $938.11bn in the first 9-months of the year, putting the manufacturing powerhouse on course to surpass $1trn in surplus sooner than last year unless exports slow sharply in the final quarter, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

Investors have injected almost $14bn into US Govt bond funds since the start of Oct, after net inflows in the 3Q2026 reached a record $59.3bn, acc. to #FT calculations based on EPFR data.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

Big investors are snapping up USTs, seeking to lock in the highest yields in decades as they bet borrowing costs can only climb so much further before a months-long sell-off abates, chart @FT www.ft.com/content/6fa7...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

The data suggests prices are revving up for manufacturers, but weak consumer #demand continues to restrain #inflation, reinforcing concerns that #China still faces an uneven recovery driven more by exports than spending.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

#China #inflation data in Sept 2026: CPI: 0.9%Y, 0.2%M, PPI: 5.0%Y, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

#China’s trade surplus nears $1trn for first 9 months of 2026, chart @bloomberg.com TV live

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

Key Causes of #Rupee Weakness: Energy & Oil Shock from the Iran War, US trade tariffs, foreign capital outflows, high US interest rates and safe-have flows, structural economic mismatch … chart @markets

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

#FX Why the #rupee is so weak despite #India ‘s fast-growing economy, chart @markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 16h

(It’s a level, not a meeting call) Checking the Market Probability Tracker for Dec 2026: The distribution of future SOFR rates currently implies a 92-93% chance of a rate #hike environment by year-end. Expectations continue to reprice, chart @AtlantaFed www.atlantafed.org/research-and...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

New mini #TVSeries #EastofEden www.imdb.com/title/tt2109... @imdb I’ve just finished watching the new TV series "East of Eden." It’s fantastic. I hope and expect it to win plenty of awards. #HoonLee , in particular, delivers an outstanding performance and deserves to win several awards.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

New #WhiteHouse press secretary has a history of conspiracy-laced social media posts, chart @CNN.com edition.cnn.com/2026/10/12/p...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The objective should be to use public institutions to support a stable, productive economy—not to treat the preservation of financial-market valuations as an unquestionable priority while social investment is continually asked to justify its existence.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The #IMF ‘s “Global Financial Stability Report” – Oct 2026 (my two cents) #financial stability is a legitimate public objective; preserving every existing financial business model is not. The same principle applies to fiscal policy.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Ultimately, the #IMF report diagnoses the plumbing leak, but it dares not question why the house was built on a flood zone in the first place.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The #IMF describes a financial system that can generate enormous private profits in good times, transmit private losses across markets in bad times, and ultimately require public institutions to contain the damage. But what does this tell us about the rules under which the system operates?

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The @IMFNews findings show that hedge funds can support market liquidity, price discovery, and risk sharing in calm times. During stress, however, leverage, crowded positions, and correlated investor redemptions can trigger synchronized deleveraging and asset sales, www.imf.org/en/publicati...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

They replace #Swisscom and #KühnNagel, which no longer rank among the 20 largest #Swiss companies in terms of market capitalization.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

#Switzerland ’s benchmark index has gained significant weight following the latest index adjustment. In Sept, 2 additional #healthcare companies #Sandoz and #Galderma—were added to the #SMI – chart @sgkb_news

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

A chart palooza for aficionados #France : The Confusion Between Creditor Risk and Macroeconomics The #euro area's asymmetric adjustment mechanisms acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/p/france-the...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Alongside the major flagship companies #Novartis and #Roche, a diverse and financially strong business ecosystem has emerged that includes successful supplier groups, medical technology companies, and biotechnology firms.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The Diversity of the #Swiss Healthcare Sector Since its origins in Basel’s chemical industry, the healthcare sector has developed into one of #Switzerland ’s most important economic sectors, chart @SGKB_News

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

the negative second derivative, if correct, could prove a headwind to equities next year.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

#AI #capex Current consensus contemplates a different scenario in 2027, featuring significant deceleration in growth rates. While upside surprises could again fuel markets, chart #MorganStanley

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Despite correlations that may suggest otherwise, the 10y UST yield’s 3Q2026 move of ca. 75bp was not about inflation or oil prices, chart #MorganStanley

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

That said, there are also differences. #France is still able to borrow, and banks — big holders of #French sovereign bonds — are better capitalized than in 2010. Europe also has better rescue mechanisms in place, chart

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

#France, a founding member of what became the EU, has the potential to be a bigger stress test, not least b/c of its size & traditional role as protector rather than problem. It’s a €3trn economy with €3.6trn in debt, 10x what #Greece had in 2010, chart #Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

#euro area 10y Govt bond yields, #France Germany and Italy - chart (intraday) @bloomberg.com TV live

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

CB currently appear reluctant to rebuild holdings of Govt #debt, yet those holdings played a significant role in the swelling public borrowing over the past decade, chart @reuters.miked.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The amount of #diesel involved in the proposed US #sanctions waiver on #Russian diesel is tiny - equivalent to about 12h of global supply and unlikely in make any meaningful difference to pump prices for Americans within the next few weeks, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/europe...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

when #social needs are at stake, the same Govts suddenly present their options as financially constrained.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The problem is not simply the deficit, but the macroeconomic context. #austerity is not an economic strategy just b/c it sounds fiscally responsible. When financial stability is at stake, Govts can mobilise enormous resources;

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Jane Foley, #RaboBank #BloombergTV Why is #austerity always the default recommendation? #France has a stagnating economy. Cutting public spending further risks weakening demand, investment and growth.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

I think the most productive aspect is the link b/w #affordability, distribution, productive capacity and political stability. It moves the discussion beyond the narrow opposition between inflation control and fiscal restraint.

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