iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

“Pitadas” Bicho, a segunda temporada é uma alucinação coletiva onde os EUA, para derrotar a China, precisa invadir o Irã e assassinar pessoas na América Latina. Reflita.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

I mean, sure, but in the same way that there are various ways that the U.S. can make Putin’s life an objective hell on earth, but it chooses not to, the U.S. could have done way more to hamper Israel, like straight up not transferring or replenishing its stocks or even worse, helping to defend it.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

It’s doubly funny because in the same interview she calls Putin a crazy dictator. Mearsheimer and co. are cretinous cunts, but they at least pretend that Putin is a rational actor that can be bargained with.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Eh, the Ukrainians and Russian still use them to fuck with the other side from time to time, though it’s admittedly missing some godawful kind of anti-drone armor.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

The part where they’re clearing trenches is worse lol, i was just yelling at the screen “WHERE ARE THE GRENADES?”

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

It’s triply funny that they do this with FUCKING SBU ALPHA, which is one of the most competent units of the entire Ukrainian military and has seen non stop action for nearly 5 years.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Very likely considering that there’s an emphasis on the trailer on the lioness getting fucked over stateside.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Yes, but also, let’s keep it real and say that it would be hilarious if they actually pulled it off and bombed Key West.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Come on, Myanmar (or Burma) is right there.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Listen, while he wasn’t shooting kids as a PMC, i’m still sure as shit he can’t complain about being sent into war when he volunteered into the Marines, reenlisted, went to the NG to stay in the service and keep deploying AND THEN joined a PMC for the hell of it.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

“And it shows how even the more skeptical members of Mr. Trump’s war cabinet — with the exception of Mr. Vance, the figure inside the White House most opposed to a full-scale war — deferred to the president’s instincts, including his confidence that the war would be quick and decisive.” Fuck off.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Ngl, this does smell a little bit of people washing their hands off the mess they made @lowrhoufo.bsky.social

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

The turkish military isn’t exactly well known for its respect of institutions and norms.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

They can do the turkish too tbh, which is mildly funnier.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

But now since they killed the mfs in charge, the iranians are a mix of “no” and “idk”, so yeah, this is stupid.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

By the way, apparently Ynet is reporting that the plan was a week long strike campaign so the U.S. could stop and get concessions in terms for a new nuclear deal, which is uh, definitely something.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Elmustek did find some wreckages of a Hermes 900 a couple of hours ago, so odds are it’s the same.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Also, there’s plenty of footage of TELs getting whacked, i’d chalk the erratic nature of launches to “Iran is a big country with a lot of targets and there isn’t a lot of coordination due to recent events”

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

What they shot down is a Hermes 900 from the IAF, which is similar, and one thing is contested airspace and another is MALE UAVs flying at their pleasure over major cities. Even the Houthis with a mix of Cold war relics and shit they made in a barn can take those out pretty quickly.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

1- Not really though, because Patriots are meant to have an intercept rate of like, 80% and you can even see videos of launchers getting targeted by russian BMs in Ukraine, so eh.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

1- The radar was Qatari though, not American, though that is admittedly very funny. 2- Eh, not really, the threat of SRBMs and a OWA-UAS bonanza was always there, the funny thing is that one of their focus is on high vis civilian targets on the Gulf.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

1- We have of ATACMs, JDAMs, LJDAMs, LUCAS and more tbh, the BMs were just the opening salvo to kick the door in. 2- I mean, they’re flying over iranian airspace just fine, there’s even MQ-9s loitering over iranian cities.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Ok, not gonna lie, considering that the top iranian response has been *checks notes* bombing Dubai, and the USAF has themselves on tape dropping LJDAMs on Iran, i’m guessing my assessment was closer to reality than yours.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

It’s not just cutting a deal tbh, elements inside the venezuelan MoD very likely turned off some of the radars responsible for covering Caracas and made it easier for the JSOC birds to get in.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Well, i didn’t say anything about the merits of trying to remove their government from the air, but yes, that’s their thinking on this. It’s stupid? Yes, and people in Iran will die because of it.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

No because as i said, Iran is a big ass country, so you need a shit ton of planes to hunt targets all around the country.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Eh, not really, it’s more that the goal isn’t to just hit Iran in the head as a fuck you, it’s to actively try to cause a collapse of the government or, at the very least, knock out most of Iran’s tools for power projection.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

I mean, the “big” option is lining up a shit ton of B-1s and B-2s stacked to their gills with standoff munitions and letting them rip, though i don’t see DoD YOLOing their stockpiles that badly on day one of it.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

The issue is the retaliation by the iranians. Even if the U.S. can realistically intercept most of the BMs, it puts US troops in places like Iraq and Syria in a very shitty position, so realistically they have to repeat the opening day of the 12 day war at the very least.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

I specifically mentioned Iraq in 03’, as in, Iraqi Freedom because the number of combat jets is somewhat similar. In 03’ the Coalition deployed some 800~ combat jets and the joint US-Israeli force is in a similar ballpark.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Somewhere between 50-60% of all US jets are usually either in training or maintenance, which leaves somewhere between 7-800 as deployable at any given time.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Offensive? Yes, their stock of SRBMs hasn’t been really messed with, however defensive? Nah, not really, their IADS are kind of fucked.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

That’s 3-400 jets + the 300 jets of the IAF, which is basically the Iraq 03’ force with some more spicy stuff sprinkled in.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

No? It’s more like 40-50% of its deployable force and by that i mean, what it can deploy without having to mess with training or maintenance schedules.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Eh, not really. Even for Venezuela which was bordering on a managed transition of government they brought out hundreds of aircraft including a lot of SEAD. The US kind of appreciates its military overmatch of enemies.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

I need to find the damn link, but there’s a very good piece by an analyst pointing out how Iranian AD is not actually that well integrated with sub par radars.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Yeah, in places like Marzaki. Do the math on that one.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Im not saying everything is going to go well for the U.S., but i’m saying this is more Iraq in 03’ than Korea. You were talking about something close to 10% casualties which is uh, definitely something.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Yes, since the Heron is very visually different from the Shahed-149. Just one dumb link so you can see i’m not fucking with you. x.com/osinttechnic...

x.com

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

That’s more a case of Iran being a big ass country with roughly 1.000km from one end to another. Even then you can see the iranian missile salvos decreasing in size and working to exploit the gaps in israeli air cover.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Again, that’s not what happened since, you know, 4K footage of israeli bombs hitting Tehran all along the 12 day war. Also, not really since there’s plenty of footage of drones flying unbothered across Iran.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

The Hermes 900 was more of a joke tbh, but there were several videos of Herons and Hermes flying over major cities in Iran. The best quality one that i remember off the top of my head being in Tabriz.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Imma need a link for that because i legitimately only saw a couple of MANPADS and 1-2 MRADs getting launched during the entire war.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

“One of their jobs was to generate propaganda (e.g., burning piles of tires and taking videos from a distance). The FPVs and car bombs were used to simulate air strikes.” Didn’t the Israelis literally post 4K footage of themselves in the iranian desert hunting IADS with ATGMs?

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

“Unfortunately, Israel's actions resulted in the temporary deportation of millions of immigrants who were only in Iran to seek a better life for themselves.” That’s a weird way of saying that millions got fucked over due to paranoia.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Not a joke by the way, the Houthis posed a bigger AD threat than the Iranians (who’s greatest accomplishment was shooting down a couple of UAVs) and that’s with shittier kit.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

1- It wasn’t mere sabotage, it was more in the room of setting up a FPV factory inside Iran proper, which, LOL. 2- Did you miss the GBU-31s and SDBs slamming into Tehran while Hermes 900 flew overhead?

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

It looks like they already made their call over wether to bomb Iran or not, the only thing is the blame game to pass around if something goes to shit and confuse the iranians about the actual date of the strike.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Caine is being quoted as presenting all of those alternatives and consequences while all of a sudden Vance and Rubio are “concerned” over the strikes, which is laughable.

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Abulebube123 @abulebube123.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Am i the only one thinking this is both a) bullshit designed to fuck with the information space on the verge of the actual op and b) bullshit so if people actually die they can walk away with a career?

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