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Aaron Erlich

@aaronerlich.bsky.social
106 followers 92 following 29 posts

Associate Professor of Political Science @McGill. Surveys, methods, data, political science, (dis)information, behavio(u)r, bicycles, kids

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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
@kunkakom.bsky.social will be curious to hear what you find!
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
JEPS opened political science's first registered reports track in 2016 and published its first one in 2021. I charted the 60 most-cited journals in the field: which have ever offered results-blind review, when, and how little it gets used. aaronerlich.com/posts/2026-08-regis…
aaronerlich.com
Registered reports are available in political science and used almost nowhere
Sixty of political science's most visible journals: eleven have offered results-blind review at some point, five offer it today, and one dropped it and came back nine years later. Why the format keeps failing to stick — and why it matters more now.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
A while back I posted my own citation record. This is the tool that drew it: put in your ORCID and it makes the same three charts for yours, including the arc showing when each paper actually peaked. Runs in your browser. aaronerlich.com/citation-arcs
aaronerlich.com
Citation Arcs
Draw three views of any researcher's citation record: cumulative in calendar time, aligned on publication, and the per-year arc. Runs entirely in your browser using OpenAlex.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Phone or web panel in wartime Ukraine? Phone reaches the third of the country a panel cannot: rural, over 55. But phone respondents overstated volunteering by ~16%. You pick which error you can live with. discuss-data.net/cs/eescca/section/…
discuss-data.net
Coverage or Candour? Survey-Mode Trade-offs for Studying Wartime Ukraine
Discuss Data
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
All 30 of my published papers, grouped by where they landed. The top 3 don't raise the ceiling — they raise the floor. My fastest-climbing paper is in a subfield journal; it came out three months before the invasion. aaronerlich.com/posts/2026-08-citat…
aaronerlich.com
Did it matter where the paper landed?
I pulled citation histories for all 30 of my published papers and colour-coded them by journal type. Top-3 journals raise the floor, not the ceiling — and the most-cited paper in my record is the one that got lucky.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
An article about Trump's iconography citing our work in the UAE in the Guardian. A well-researched read! www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... @mcgillpolisci.bsky.social @cpsjournal.bsky.social @sarahbush.bsky.social @laurenrprather.bsky.social
theguardian.com
The Guardian view on Trump’s omnipresence: commanding attention like a king | Editorial
Editorial: The president’s image and name are proliferating in Washington and beyond, overturning well-advised democratic taboos on glorifying sitting leaders
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
I am very happy to see that this report from the the Senate of Canada is out. My testimony is heavily cited: sencanada.ca/en/info-page... "Aaron Erlich encouraged the allocation of more resources for non-governmental organizations to help them target hard-to-reach populations..."
sencanada.ca
Russia's Disinformation: Understanding the Challenge, Strengthening Canada's Response
Russia’s disinformation poses an urgent threat to Canada’s national security, democratic institutions and social cohesion.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
All of the time-stamped versions of our PAP are available under FILES at osf.io/97mnj/?view_... = 3e 89348737ef4911904a4b7b92593902/.
osf.io
OSF
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Third, after the first week of the study, we specified that w would sample more low-quality news outlets if we were not getting a sufficient number of false stories after the first two weeks of data collection (see Section K, page 32 of the PAP Appendix from 05–21–2024).
osf.io
OSF
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Second, we updated the PAP after conditional acceptance with editorial approval before our fieldwork, as a result of changed conditions related to the ongoing war.
osf.io
OSF
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
When social science research resumed after the invasion, we resubmitted a modified version of the PAP. We then made three additional sets of updates to the PAP as the project unfolded. First, after each of two rounds of revise & resubmit, we updated the PAP to address requests from peer reviewers
osf.io
OSF
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
We submitted our PAP for peer review to JEPS on January 17, 2022, just prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, we suspended review of the study in the aftermath of the full-scale invasion.
osf.io
OSF
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
I'd like to reflect on how much certain branches of social science have changed in the last decade: here is the note at the beginning our JEPS pre-registered report -- just out: 1/3
osf.io
OSF
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Does anyone have thoughtful approaches to evaluating graduate-level quantitative methods courses in the era of generative AI? I have looked at a lot of folks' syllabi, and they are from a few years ago. It feels like there has been a sea change in the meantime. Thoughts on evaluation?
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Super interesting! I see you haven't gone back to exams or anything like that. Do you think it's sustainable and that students aren't just using LLMs as a massive crutch anyhow?
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Reposted by Aaron Erlich
World Politics @worldpolitics.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Did an access-to-information system in #Mexico work? Did it become more responsive to public requests for information over time, or did portions of the public become more "expert" in their requests, which in turn ensured responses from the system?
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Reposted by Aaron Erlich
World Politics @worldpolitics.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
The July issue of @worldpolitics.bsky.social is out! Learn about #DemocraticSocialist #PoliticalParty strategies, participatory institutions, #WealthInequality, #migrants and #socialsecurity coordination, and #Kissinger and #SoftPower. muse.jhu.edu/issue/55120 #Inequality #Capitalism
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
I am super excited that this article about how age differences in the survey enumeration process might influence survey results in Sub-Saharan Africa bit.ly/3DUSh3m. Using @afrobarometer.bsky.social data, I show they do. Teaser, they may be more important than coethnicity. Check it out!
can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
Elder, Am I Right? Age-Group Differences in Social and Political Interactions in Africa
Abstract. Age-group differences play an essential role in social interaction across sub-Saharan Africa. However, the social effects of these differences re
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Does anyone know the approximate cost savings for journals to outsource their production to India? The quality of the services is just so low... and I truly wonder what the savings are.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Very relicable 😆
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
It would be cool to compare the false negatives from just using the abstract! But yea, one would think they might under count some stuff. Other elements of precision/recall are also interesting.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
I dunno. Maybe it is worth it to distinguish research designs and estimators? I think that methods is growing alongside survey experiments. But I get the point! It's a subset of natural experiment.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
I guess we should commend AJPS for making big steps in being more global. How does this differ from this Knutsen paper? www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/ha...
duo.uio.no
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Unexpected Event Study Design?
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
The # is a bit arbitrary - maybe worse than statistical rules of thumb. But I think you are in this game bc you have multiple good ideas about publishable papers; hopefully, one figures a way to parcel them out steadily. Clumping sucks. I had a COVID backlog and put 10 for review at a time 🔫 🤯.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
That's very cool. But the day seems a bit arbitrary hard to estimate, no?
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
I'm thrilled to see this work of years in print! AJPS just posted the blog version. Key takeaways: we have a more optimistic view of anti-corruption messaging than some recent articles. However, anti-corruption messaging is also by no means a panacea. We should be realistic about its effects!
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Thanks @joenoonan.se! I’m glad you found it useful!
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Reposted by Aaron Erlich
Political Science Department at Northwestern University @polisciatnu.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Hot off the Press & Open Access!!! Jordan Gans-Morse (tw @J_GansMorse / #NUResearch) and Aaron Erlich (@aaronerlich.bsky.social lich.bsky.social / @mcgill.ca ca), "Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption?" via AJPS @ajpseditor.bsky.social #polisky doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
Erlich, Aaron, and Jordan Gans-Morse. 2025. “ Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption?” American Journal of Political Science 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12940

Abstract 
Can norm-based information campaigns reduce corruption? Such campaigns use messaging about how people typically behave (descriptive norms) or ought to behave (injunctive norms). Drawing on survey and lab experiments in Ukraine, we unpack and evaluate the distinct effects of these two types of social norms. Four findings emerge: First, injunctive-norm messaging produces consistent but relatively small and temporary effects. These may serve as moderately effective, low-cost anti-corruption tools but are unlikely to inspire large-scale norm transformations. Second, contrary to recent studies, we find no evidence that either type of norm-based messaging “backfires” by inadvertently encouraging corruption. Third, descriptive-norm messages emphasizing corruption's decline produce relatively large and long-lasting effects—but only among subjects who find messages credible. Fourth, both types of norm-based messaging have a substantially larger effect on younger citizens. These findings have broader implications for messaging campaigns, especially those targeting social problems that, like corruption, require mitigation of collective action dilemmas.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
That’s awesome. Lemme know if you want me to give any feedback.
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Has anybody tried Google Scholar’s new PDF reader?Any good? #polisky
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Aaron Erlich @aaronerlich.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
I second this motion!
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